Patriots-Dolphins prediction roundup: Who’s afraid of the big, bad Giants? Not New England
COMMENTARY
Hell, bring on the Giants. Third time’s a charm.
We’re only on the doorstep of the NFL postseason, where the New England Patriots can claim home-field advantage with a win at Miami Sunday, but the water cooler talk has already shifted to the possibility of yet another showdown between the Patriots and New York Giants in the Super Bowl.
Shudder the thought? Nah.
“They don’t want to see us,” Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz told the Daily News. “I’m sure if you ask them (they’d say) they’d play anybody, they don’t care. I’m sure they don’t want to see us. That’s for sure.
“Oh man, you can’t even put it into words almost. For it to be round three, us and them in another epic Super Bowl showdown. It’d be for all the marbles. The third time is when, I mean they’ll have a lot riding on it, we will have a lot riding on it. It’ll just be one of those moments you (couldn’t) forget.”
According to Football Outsiders, there’s only a 3.1% chance the two teams will meet in Houston come February.
Too bad. Patriot fans should have relished the thought of a second rematch.
After all, what else could possibly happen a third time around against the Giants? How many miracle catches can really doom the Patriots? How many in-game coaching mistakes (Let Gostkowski kick) can Bill Belichick make? How many bad throws can Tom Brady make (ducks) with Wes Welker not on hand to take the heat?
Besides, don’t you think Brady, Belichick, and the Krafts would cherish the opportunity to enact their vengeance on Giants co-owner John Mara for his role in the Deflategate saga?
Sorry, Dallas, Seattle (you were fun, though), Atlanta, and Green Bay or Detroit. The Patriots might take you on, but there’s only one NFC team that New England has its sights set on with such a percolating anticipation.
This week’s picks:
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20. [Playoff impact: Medium. Both teams are in, but Patriots can clinch home-field throughout with win or Raiders loss, and Dolphins would move up to more favorable No. 5 seed with win if Chiefs lose.] Many readers have been kind enough to point out that I picked Dolphins to lose past two games, and was wrong both times. Well, as a public service, I’m picking them to lose again. You’re welcome! But this time I mean it. Pats beat Miami early in season with Jimmy Garoppolo. Now I’m supposed to think they won’t with Tom Brady? Yeah, I know, Brady has lost his past three starts in Miami. This I also know: New England’s defense has not allowed a touchdown in more than nine quarters. It is the balance and completeness at Bill Belichick’s command that makes Pats the Super Bowl favorite, not just Brady. Plus, Jay Ajayi has been limited this week by a sore shoulder. The betting line that opened at 7 1/2 and ballooned to double digits — that’s too big. But if you’re looking at this game as the Litmus test for whether Miami finally has caught up to its AFC East nemesis, the answer is, “Not yet.”
ESPN.com staff: All Pats.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 31, Dolphins 24. “Both teams will be playing for something in this one, which is rare this week. The Patriots are playing for the top seed, and they are the best team in football. Tom Brady will carve up the Miami secondary and lead the Patriots to the victory.”
CBS Sports staff: Four our of six pick the Dolphins (Miami +9.5).
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with a 65 percent chance of winning.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 31, Dolphins 23. “Losing at Miami in Week 17 a year ago cost the Patriots the No. 1 seed and, eventually, a Super Bowl berth. Bill Belichick won’t let that happen again.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 28, Dolphins 14. “The Patriots are playing to clinch home-field advantage while the Dolphins, with a wild card berth locked up, don’t have a lot to play for. That’s a recipe for New England to win easily.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Dolphins (+10). “The Patriots want to win this game, but the Dolphins also wouldn’t mind testing themselves before the playoffs begin. The Dolphins are good at home (6-1 overall and haven’t lost since Week 5), so 10 points in this situation is too many to pass up.”
USA Today staff: Patriots across the board.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “Both of these teams are in, with the Patriots having slightly more to play for. The Patri*ts still need this game to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Dolphins are playing for the right to face the crappy Texans instead of the Steelers in the first round, if they win and the Chiefs lose. I’ll take Deflatey McGee and Filmy McFilmerson to lock down home field advantage, where it is easier for them to cheat.”
MassLive staff: All Pats.
SB Nation staff: Seven out of nine pick the Patriots.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 20, Dolphins 16. “Late-season games in Miami have not been a cakewalk for the Belichick Patriots, whether they have much to play for or not. New England lost down there in Week 17 last season — as well as in December of 2013. (Not to mention the Week 1 loss at Miami in 2014.) The Patriots clinch home-field throughout the playoffs with a win or a Raiders loss. The Dolphins will be the sixth seed … unless the pass rush gets to Tom Brady and the Chiefs falter in San Diego. This should be a tight ballgame, with the Dolphins trying keep their mojo heading into the postseason. But can the defense continue to play over its head? The concern: The Patriots running backs, specifically LeGarrette Blount, who is now one of just four running backs in the last five years to rush for over 1,000 yards and at least 15 touchdowns.”
Globe staff: Three out of five pick New England (Patriots -9.5).
It says here: Patriots 12, Dolphins 9. Patriots will play like they want to win. Kind of. Either way, they will. Just don’t expect this one to go into the NFL Archives’ Hall of Fame anytime soon.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com