Patriots-Jets prediction roundup: Playoff calculations begin after Pats take care of Jets
COMMENTARY
The Patriots are going to beat the pathetic Jets. That won’t be the fascinating development of this penultimate weekend of the NFL’s regular season.
It’s only after that occurs that things get truly interesting in the AFC’s playoff picture, beginning with Saturday afternoon’s 4:05 p.m. showdown between the Raiders and Colts in Oakland. Indianapolis still has a slight chance of making the postseason. The Raiders secured a berth last weekend with a 19-16 win over the San Diego Chargers.
In order to win the AFC South, the 7-7 Colts need to win their final two games of the season, and hope the 8-6 Houston Texans go winless while the 8-6 Tennessee Titans lose to the Jaguars in Week 16 (and then beat the Texans in Week 17). They technically could also still sneak into a Wild Card spot as the sixth seed if they win out and enough other things fall their way to create a tiebreaker with Miami (who must drop its final two games).
Ah, but there lies the tricky conundrum. If the Colts do manage to beat the Raiders on Saturday, while the Patriots take care of the Jets, it will all but assure that Indianapolis will be out of the playoffs in any case. A Patriots win combined with a Raiders loss secures the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage for New England during the postseason. In that case, their final regular-season game at Miami next weekend means nothing to Bill Belichick and company, who will probably find it more beneficial to care less about the outcome, especially since a win for Miami might very well mean keeping the 8-6 Denver Broncos’ defense away from Gillette Stadium next month.
So, while the Colts may be itching for a win to help their slim playoff chances against the Raiders, a victory will likely also put the nail in their postseason coffin.
This week’s picks
Joe Manniello, Newsday:Jets to cover the spread
(-16.5, New England) “The Jets are in last place, and the Patriots clinched another AFC East title, but this spread feels too high. The Pats will be more than happy to win 20-7 or 24-10, won’t they? If New England wins by three touchdowns, it wouldn’t be a shocker, but the guess here is that the Jets will show up enough to earn the cover. They outplayed the Pats in the teams’ first meeting this season before faltering late and falling, 22-17. Seven of the teams’ last meetings have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, and while this game won’t be that close, the safe play is to take the points. If the Jets can score 10-14 points, that should be enough to put them in position for a cover. Is that too much to ask, Bryce Petty?”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 38, Jets 13. “Patriots have clinched AFC East crown and first-round bye but still aim for home-field throughout, so can’t afford a stumble here. And that isn’t likely against a Jets team that (based on last week’s effort vs. Miami) already has quit on Todd Bowles. Bryce Petty is iffy for Planes, so Ryan Fitzpatrick is on standby. Like it matters? Bill Belichick gets his 200th Pats win, and Tom Brady gets the 270 yards he needs to surpass Dan Marino for fourth all-time.”
ESPN.com: Nobody picks the Jets.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 33, Jets 10. “The Patriots are 16 1/2–point favorites. That’s unreal. But the Jets seemed to have packed their bags for a beach location. They are done. New England will blow them out.”
CBS Sports staff: Five out of eight pick New England (Patriots -16.5).
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with a 90 percent chance of winning.
Mike Florio ProFootballTalk: Patriots 40, Jets 17. “Last year, a pair of losses to the Jets and Dolphins kept the Patriots from securing the No. 1 seed and, in turn, making it to the Super Bowl. They won’t let it happen again.”
Michael David Smith, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 33, Jets 14. “The Patriots struggled to beat the Jets last time. They won’t struggle this time.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 38, Jets 3. “New England has its latest division crown and first-round bye in hand as an AFC playoff team. But the Patriots cannot let up with Oakland or Kansas City capable of passing them for No. 1. They’ll take it out on Bryce Petty and the Jets, who made the first matchup too close for comfort. Tom Brady is due for another monster passing game, and it comes just in time to help those going for a fantasy football championship with him.”
David Steele, Sporting News: Patriots 47, Jets 13. “These Jets players don’t seem to be able to keep their focus for more than a minute or two at a time. The Patriots are nothing but focus right now. This should be like a scrimmage for them, and they’ll need it, because they have to get as comfortable on offense without Rob Gronkowski as possible by playoff time.”
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 30, Jets 3. “The Jets were down 34-10 with five minutes remaining and opted to attempt a field goal last week against the Dolphins. They then chose not to go for an onside kick. I don’t know what to say about that. I think the goose is cooked in New York. Patriots win in a walk.”
Foxsports.com staff: All Pats.
Bryan Altman, CBS Sports: Patriots. “Could you argue that this is by far the worst iteration of the New York Jets in that time period? Sure, but I don’t think it matters. I think they keep it within two scores and maybe even put a little fear into the hearts of Patriots fans early on in this one. Boy am I going to regret that statement on Sunday morning.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “I call this package of games “The War On Christmas.” If these games keep you away from your family for more than one second, then you’ve lost the day.”
USA Today staff: Patriots, across the board.
MassLive staff: It’s all Pats.
SB Nation staff: New England for all.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 28, Jets 10. “It appears that we’ll see Ken O’Brien come back before we ever see Christian Hackenberg get a start. At least the Jets aren’t playing the best team in the NFL this week. But then, the Patriots are pretty good. OK, well, at least the Jets are not playing the top scoring defense in the league. Wait. This could get ugly. New York’s defense hung tough against Tom Brady last time out, but in the fourth quarter, the bad guys prevailed. See no reason, other than the players really balling out for head coach Todd Bowles, to think the Jets’ defense will be able to shave anything off New England’s scoring average (26.1 points per game) this week.”
Globe staff: Two out of three pick the Jets (New England -16.5).
It says here: Patriots 34, Jets 14. No overtime kickoffs this time.
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