5 takeaways from the Patriots’ 16-3 win over the Broncos
COMMENTARY
If you’re a Patriots fan with obligations for early in the new year, schedule them for the weekend of January 7-8. Because it’s now official that the Patriots won’t be playing.
New England will be skipping wild-card weekend — again — after a 16-3 win in Denver, exacting a small measure of revenge against the Broncos team that eliminated it last season, and closing in on the conference’s No. 1 overall seed. Here are five takeaways from a win that moves the Patriots to 12-2:
Take It And Move On
For all the success they’ve enjoyed together over the past 15 years, Tom Brady and the Patriots won just two of their first nine trips to Mile High. At times, it’s been ugly. And the games they’ve won have taken some tricks — like long-snapping a ball off the goal posts on purpose — or an easy opponent — like Tim Tebow.
So even if it wasn’t especially pretty, and even if Brady had his worst game of the year (16-for-32, 188 yards, no touchdowns), this isn’t a win worth nitpicking. The Patriots entered their own house of horrors against a desperate team that was buoyed by largely the same defense that made last year’s AFC title game a nightmare, weathered some early troubles, and never gave the Broncos a hint of life after the middle of the second quarter. The numbers don’t necessarily reflect it, but it was impressive.
“That was a real strong effort by our team today. I’m really proud of these guys,” coach Bill Belichick said. “It was a big challenge for us, but our players did a great job. They prepared well. Came out and played a physical game, a tough game against a tough team. I thought we deserved to win.”
Turnovers Undid Brutal Start
Turnovers are often talked about as plays that can tilt a game. But they can also have a way of simply keeping a team afloat when everything else is failing, as the Patriots proved early in Sunday’s game.
Through a quarter, it couldn’t have been going much worse for New England. It had been outgained 146-39. Brady was 0-for-6, while Trevor Siemian was 10-for-13. The Patriots were 0-for-4 on third down offensively, and defensively seemed to have little answer for the Broncos’ running backs and tight ends.
Yet the score was just 3-3 after a period, thanks to a Jordan Norwood fumbled punt that gave the Pats possession in field goal range. The Broncos were knocking on the door as the teams changed sides, though on the first play of Quarter 2, Logan Ryan stepped in front of Emmanuel Sanders and raced to midfield after intercepting Siemian. LeGarrette Blount finished that drive with a short touchdown run, and for all its failings New England suddenly led, 10-3. After coming up with two turnovers in the previous seven games, that pair gave the Patriots seven takeaways in their last four games. And another reminder of why that stat is so valuable.
Lewis Asserted Himself, As A Runner
Entering Sunday, Dion Lewis had played 81 offensive snaps since returning from the physically unable to perform designation that cost him the first nine weeks of the season. In that playing time, he carried only 19 times, bringing him to 68 rushing attempts in 379 snaps as a Patriot. The usage illustrated some of what can make New England predictable based on its personnel. When Blount is in the backfield, the run is a threat. But when it’s Lewis or White behind the line, the Pats tend to be throwing.
So not only were the 18 hauls Lewis had in Denver productive Sunday — amassing 95 yards — but they could prove beneficial moving forward, too. Not only were the Patriots willing to give the ball to Lewis, but he was a legitimate threat in that role, giving defenses one more thing to think about as they prepare for the Patriots. And perhaps one fewer tendency on which to key.
Denver rated just 19th league-wide in yards per carry at the start of this week, allowing 4.2 yards per try, which explains why New England ran the ball on 38 of 72 snaps before Brady’s victory-cigar kneeldown. But with Blount in the midst of a career year, the expectation was that the bruiser would be the bell cow if the Pats were so balanced. That Lewis toted it once more, and more effectively, could pay dividends come the postseason.
Van Noy Thriving
Less than a week before the Patriots shockingly traded Jamie Collins to Cleveland, they made another deal to augment their linebacker corps with much less fanfare. In fact, it cost them almost nothing, given that they gave up a sixth-round pick and acquired a seventh. But if New England’s trade for Kyle Van Noy was indeed done with dumping the super-talented Collins in mind, the decision has over the past few weeks begun to make a lot more sense.
Arriving in Foxborough after starting seven games for the Lions, it took Van Noy some time to make an impact. But he had a sack against the 49ers. Made his first Patriots start against the Jets. Snared an interception against the Rams. Got his hands on another ball against the Ravens. Then Sunday his afternoon started with tight coverage on a third-down throw in the red zone, ended with a forced fumble, and in between featured a tackle for loss among six stops in New England’s excellent defensive effort.
He won’t be confused with Collins athletically. But when trading Collins the biggest complaint from critics was that the Patriots had traded a playmaker. Particularly with Chandler Jones in Arizona, and Rob Ninkovich seemingly on the decline, the defense looked deficient in those early in the year — though Van Noy’s recent run suggests he is ready to help.
What It Means
The AFC East belongs to the Patriots for the eighth straight season, and 14th time in 16 years. With that, they also locked up a first-round playoff bye, and retained their lead atop the AFC. They lead the Raiders (11-3) by one game with two to go; the Chiefs (10-4), who’d been tied with the Raiders, lost Sunday in a late upset to the Titans.
So if the Pats win out, the road to the Super Bowl will run through Foxborough. If the Pats split, the Raiders would need to beat the Colts at home and the Broncos on the road, and at that point the conference’s top seed would come down to record against common opponents. (Both Oakland and New England would be 10-2 within the AFC.) That means the Patriots could get a present on Christmas Eve, if they beat the Jets and Indianapolis topples Oakland.
That scenario would render the final week of the regular season meaningless for the Patriots, who will travel to Miami for their finale. The Dolphins (9-5) are currently in sole possession of the AFC’s final playoff spot, so if the Patriots chose to rest players it could mean rivals like the Ravens, Broncos and Colts would be left on the outside looking in when the field is finalized. But after Monday night’s showing by Baltimore, Sunday’s showing by Denver, and Indy’s general inconsistency, there doesn’t appear to be any reason any of those teams should instill any real fear in New England.
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