Patriots-Broncos prediction roundup: Everything is on the line in Denver on Sunday
COMMENTARY
If the New England Patriots can fend off whatever demons that typically tend to descend from the Colorado peaks whenever they make the trek out west on Sunday afternoon, you might as well lock in your airfare for Houston.
Just a little more than a year after a muffed punt return helped cost them home-field advantage and 11 months after Tom Brady’s offensive line crumbled in the thin air of Mile High while the normally-dependable Stephen Gostkowski ultimately cost the 2015 season, the Patriots are back in Denver this weekend for their biggest test of 2016.
They should ace it.
Everything the 11-2 Patriots have done this season has built up in anticipation for this showdown in Denver, where an improved offensive line, thanks to Dante Scarnecchia’s return, and a healthy LeGarrette Blount — having the best season of his career — and Dion Lewis will control the stalwart Denver defense in ways they simply couldn’t manage last season.
The Broncos, for all their defensive greatness, are 29th this season against the run, allowing 127.2 yards per game. The Patriots are seventh in the NFL offensively with an average of 115.5 rushing yards per game.
As long as Josh McDaniels remains committed to the run, the Patriots are going to take the next, presumed step toward securing their second Super Bowl title in three years. The 8-5 Broncos will be left lingering for a wild card berth.
Nobody is better than the Patriots right now, an assessment that hasn’t been the easiest to come to over the past few weeks, during which a confluence of defensive questions, the loss of Rob Gronkowski, and a rash of other health issues had fans wondering what the end product might deliver. But the Patriots seemingly discovered their identity, finally, against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, displaying a swagger and confidence that had been lacking through the first three months of the season.
If the team that emerged Monday shows up again on Sunday, their transformation is complete.
Just don’t show Cyrus Jones any tape of Chris Harper.
This week’s picks
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 24, Broncos 20. “Why Game of the Week? Lions-Giants and even Bucs-Cowboys tempted, but here we have an AFC Championship Game rematch that finds Patriots still trying to lock up No. 1 postseason seed and defending champ Broncos precariously just trying to get in. Give Denver a medium-sized home-’dog upset shot, but a loss to help Miami’s playoff chances is likelier. Denver is imbalanced, with not much offense to offset that big D. Trying to find a way to get to Trevor Siemian outscoring Tom Brady, and cannot do it. Tom Terrific has 21 TDs vs. two interceptions in his past 10 starts vs. Denver, and the conditions in Mile High won’t bother him. Brady vs. Von Miller should alone be worth watching, by the way.”
ESPN.com: Eight out of nine like the Patriots.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 24, Broncos 17. “The Patriots, and especially Tom Brady, impressed against the top-ranked Baltimore defense Monday night. But this is a tough turnaround and the Patriots struggled here in the AFC Championship Game last January. They will fare better today. Brady stays hot — even against this talented defense.”
CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick New England (+3 Denver).
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots only with a 54 percent chance of winning.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Broncos 20. “The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots have struggled in Denver, but Trevor Siemian falls closer to the Danny Kannell/Tim Tebow category than Jake Plummer/Peyton Manning/pre-Texans Brock Osweiler.”
Michael David Smith: Pro Football Talk: Patriots 16, Broncos 13. “The Broncos’ excellent pass defense should hold Tom Brady in check, but the Patriots’ defense won’t yield many points, and New England will win a close, low-scoring game.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 24, Broncos 20. “New England doesn’t like playing in Denver. It’s where the Patriots lost home field last season, forcing them into an uncomfortable playoff rematch. Brady got well rested after being rattled by the Broncos’ pass rush and has come back firing behind a better line situation. The depth and versatility of the Patriots’ receivers will be tough on the talented Broncos’ cover men, but the difference maker will be the ability to pound inside, too, with LeGarrette Blount. The Broncos can’t execute that with their struggling line and backs.”
David Steele, Sporting News: Broncos 24, Patriots 22. “AFC championship game rematch. Even while Tom Brady was raining hellfire on the Ravens on Monday night, the Patriots still worked with a small margin of error, thanks to injuries, untrustworthy defense and special-teams miscues. The Broncos are smarting from losing to Tennessee (and some borderline plays), but their defense presents different challenges for Brady and the offense.”
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 33, Broncos 17. “The Broncos were the Kryptonite to Tom Brady’s Superman performance a year ago, beating the Patriots twice, with two different quarterbacks and a whole lot of defense. But this Broncos defense is suddenly susceptible to the run, ranking 29th in the league. Weird stuff there, and LeGarrette Blount is having a career year. This could be a career game. Give me New England in yet another December statement game.”
Foxsports.com staff: Five out of six pick New England.
Bryan Altman, CBS Sports: Patriots. “I don’t think it’ll be easy, but I like the Patriots to get the job done in Denver. First of all, the Brady revenge tour hit list may have more than two names on it, but at the very least the two at the top are Roger Goodell and the entire Denver Broncos defense (honorable mentioned: Von Miller). The Broncos’ defense chewed Brady up and spit him out in last year’s AFC Championship game and I’m sure Brady hasn’t forgotten. I think the Denver defense gets theirs here, but I like Brady to pull out the win in Denver and put his team one step closer towards clinching home field throughout the playoffs.”
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “A frightening pick, always, to trust in the Patriots in Denver — especially when Tim Tebow is not the quarterback. And with their playoff lives on the line, I do expect Von Miller and the crew to be gunning for Tom Brady. But I’ve seen Trevor Siemian. And so have NFL teams. He’s not going to beat the Patriots in December. He’s not. And unlike last year, the Broncos can’t run the ball, while the Patriots can. A simple run game would have gone a long way in both of New England’s meetings with Denver last year.”
USA Today staff: All Pats.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “Deflatey McGee and the gang are 6-0 on the road this season, and lead the NFL in point differential, at +119. Deflatey also likely remembers the beating he took from the Broncos’ defense in the playoffs last season, and is eager for some revenge. I’m just thankful I never again have to hear about the Deflatey-Manning rivalry for countless hours whenever these two teams play.”
SB Nation staff: Seven out of nine pick New England.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 22, Broncos 17. “Yet another rivalry game for the Patriots, in so much as they lost the AFC championship in Denver last season in a bitterly fought battle. The difference this time around will be none other than LeGarrette Blount, who was unavailable for last year’s title defense in the postseason, but who has played his butt off this year. If you recall, New England trotted Steven Jackson out there at tailback last January. When the offense became one-dimensional, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware started teeing off. Blount crossed the 1,000-yard barrier Monday night versus the Ravens, and will be facing the league’s 29th-ranked run defense. Can you believe that? Thought Trevor Siemian played well in Tennessee, especially considering all the duress he was under. But my concern is that the Broncos could get down two scores in the first half, forcing the young QB to press. Going with the Pats on Sunday.”
Globe staff: Three out of five pick Denver (-3 New England).
It says here: Patriots 23, Broncos 17. When’s the parade?
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