5 takeaways from the Patriots’ 30-23 win over the Ravens
COMMENTARY
Five takeaways from a 30-23 victory that gives the Patriots a seventh-straight 11-win season, and leaves them sitting pretty atop the AFC standings:
1. AN ENORMOUS NIGHT OFFENSIVELY
Those who looked to Monday night as a test of what the Patriots really are beyond their record can take away this: This attack, even post-Rob Gronkowski, is plenty good enough to carry them on a deep playoff run. If there were doubts about that after games against the Jets and Rams each had its lulls, those should be calmed by 30 points and 496 yards of offense against what entered as the NFL’s toughest defense to score and move the ball against.
No team had scored more than 28 points against the Ravens this season, and Baltimore hadn’t given up more than 435 yards in any contest. Only the Giants and Cowboys had even come within 100 yards of New England’s output, and that production is despite of the two possessions the Patriots effectively lost because of a pair of special teams fumbles. Drives are shorter against the Ravens than any team in football this season, lasting for an average of 24.4 yards per, though the Pats put together five series of 65 yards or more. They did that by roasting the NFL’s third-best third-down defense for eight conversions in 16 attempts, plus a game-clinching fourth-down pickup, and capitalized with touchdowns on three of four red-zone trips.
Tom Brady’s 406 yards were highlighted by the 79-yard backbreaker he floated to Chris Hogan (129 yards) in the middle of the final period, and the quarterback’s performance might’ve made up the minds of any MVP voters who were tuned in among the national TV audience. But that Brady was sacked just once, that he threw touchdowns to three different receivers, that he connected with seven different targets, and that LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.0 yards a haul against the NFL’s stoutest run defense was indicative of what the Patriots offense remains capable of as a whole. Even without No. 87.
2. DEFENSE HAS MOVED ON, AND IS MOVING UP
It’s still a small sample, and the level of competition hasn’t been lofty enough to afford any confident declarations, but the Patriots have now played five games since trading Jamie Collins. New England’s points allowed are about a field goal worse per game compared to the previous eight, climbing to 19.6 from 16.5 – but the rest of the numbers all look better.
The Patriots were allowing 8.48 yards per pass attempt with Collins on the roster, and averaging 1.6 sacks per contest. Since the deal, opponents are throwing for 7.55 yards per toss, and getting sacked an average of three times per game. Monday night marked the third straight game in which the Pats yielded less than 65 yards rushing, and are now giving up 72 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry since Collins was sent to Cleveland. Before the deal, the Patriots surrendered an average of 102 yards each game, and opponents were accumulating 4.15 yards per attempt. Overall, New England’s defense has seen its yardage allowed dip from 354 to 312 over the past five outings.
Since Week 10, only two teams have been better than New England against the run, and only two others have more sacks. Only seven teams are yielding fewer yards per game. Again, the 49ers, Jets, and Rams aren’t exactly barometers. But come the playoffs, a far-from-unreasonable path to the Super Bowl could include both the Seahawks and Ravens – and they’ve been on the schedule over the past five weeks, too.
3. McCOURTY MAKES AN IMPACT
There are weeks when the quality of Devin McCourty’s play is characterized by the fact he’s not mentioned often. For a safety, that means he hasn’t made many mistakes. Against Baltimore, however, McCourty made his presence known by getting to the ball.
He snared his first interception of the season in the second quarter, then got his hands into the body of Mike Wallace to break up what would’ve been a long completion on third-and-three in the third quarter, forcing the Ravens to punt. On a night the Patriots dealt with the loss of fellow safety Duron Harmon for a chunk of the first half, and played a strategy that tried to confuse the Ravens by bringing pressure from a variety of locations, McCourty delivered what appeared to be his best – and biggest impact – performance of the season.
“We’re coming together and I think it all starts on the practice fields each week,” McCourty said. “We’ve just got to keep getting better, keep pushing forward at the little things, and at this time of year it comes down to probably one or two plays in these big games, and we’ve just got to try to make those.”
4. SPECIAL TEAMS TROUBLE
Patrick Chung’s first punt return as a professional came in a November 2015 game at Denver, which happened to be the tilt that turned when rookie Chris Harper mishandled a return and kickstarted the Broncos’ rally from a 14-point deficit. His second came Monday night. Suffice it to say, the Patriots have only pressed Chung into that role when their depth is depleted and they’re desperate. So expect to see more of him there in the coming weeks.
Cyrus Jones played the role of Harper against the Ravens, misplaying a punt in what was becoming a blowout, and giving Baltimore the break it needed to get back in the game. That mistake was compounded by Matthew Slater’s fumble on a kickoff 14 second later, and in a span of just 1:26 the Ravens trimmed their deficit from 23-3 to 23-17 – but Slater has earned some degree of absolution. It’s not typically his job to handle the ball. Jones, however, was a second-round draft pick in part because of his return skills, yet has now fumbled on five of the 11 tries he’s had this season. It’s hard to envision Belichick trusting him back there in a meaningful situation the rest of the way. Although, it’s worth noting that the same was said in this space last week.
The crucial errors from Jones and Slater undid what was otherwise an excellent special teams performance from the Patriots. On top of Shea McClellin’s first-quarter blocked field goal, Baltimore was forced to begin four series inside its own 10 yard line. One of those resulted in Malcom Brown’s safety, and when the Jones and Slater turnovers are taken out of the equation, the Ravens’ average starting position was 18.9 on the night.
5. PATS CONTROL THE AFC
The Patriots could have lost Monday and still been in good shape in the battle for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. With a win, though, they’re now on the cusp of locking up another AFC East title, all but assured of a first-round bye, and in a commanding position for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Let’s start in the division: In order to lose the division, the Patriots would need to lose out, while the Dolphins go 3-0 (which would include beating New England in Week 17). And if the Pats win the East they’re now assured of skipping wild-card weekend, because only one of the AFC West co-leaders (the 10-3 Chiefs and Raiders) can earn a bye, and the Steelers (currently 8-5) are the only other AFC team that can get to 11 wins. New England would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.
Looking at the race for the No. 1 seed, the 11-2 Pats hold a one-game lead on both the Chiefs and Raiders and Oakland with three games to go. If the Patriots beat the Broncos on Sunday, losses by the Chiefs (to the Titans) and Raiders (to the Chargers) would mean New England could finish no worse than tied for the top spot. It would also mean that the best Kansas City or Oakland could do would be to match New England in terms of conference record – where the Pats are 8-1, while the West leaders are both 7-2 – so the No. 1 seed would then go to common opponents. In that case, the Patriots would be better off in a tie with the Chiefs than the Raiders.
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