Unconventional Preview: Patriots will miss Rob Gronkowski — but not against the Rams
A victory without suffering any further injuries would qualify as a successful day
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 5, Episode 12 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, occasionally nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend.
Once 1 p.m. Sunday comes around, we’ll start thinking about who is here this week, meaning the 4-7 Los Angeles Rams. But until then, and at times beyond this week as well, it will still be about who isn’t here.
Rob Gronkowski, one of the greatest tight ends in league history and most fun and dynamic players the Patriots have ever featured, is lost for the season after undergoing back surgery Friday. Losing the essential tight end significantly enhances the Patriots’ degree of difficulty in the quest to reach their seventh Super Bowl of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era, let alone win their fifth.
It does not make it impossible, however, or even improbable. The Patriots, provided Brady’s injured knee doesn’t get worse, are better equipped to plow on without Gronk this year than they have been in past seasons when he was sidelined. The offense is versatile and well-rounded. There’s a more than capable tight end in Martellus Bennett to theoretically replace him, though I’m not sure who replaces Bennett. Should they stay fairly healthy the rest of the way – meaning that the likes of Bennett, Chris Hogan, and Julian Edelman, let alone Brady, aren’t listed as questionable or worse on the injury report every week – then they will remain a very real contender.
In general, it’s hard to feel bad for Gronk, who has lived the life every 15-year-old boy dreams about. But this week, I do. He might come across as the prototypical meathead jock, but I’ve seen him go out of his way to be nice to kids so often through the years that I believe he’s a genuinely decent person. Football matters to him, and once again he’s had it taken away as yet another scar is added to his body. Brady has described Gronk a few times as a guy who never has a bad day. He’s had a couple lousy days recently. I feel for him.
And man, am I going to miss watching him, even though we’ve become used to it through the years. Patriots fans – and I ran into a few on Twitter – want to take a victory lap over previous assertions that he’s “brittle” need to find a new hobby. If you can’t appreciate watching Gronk – one of the most enjoyable football players I’ve ever seen, right there with Brady, Randy Moss, Earl Campbell, Bo Jackson and a select few more – and don’t miss him now, I guess you follow sports for reasons I can’t comprehend. Gronk is a football player. Football players get injured. It’s the cruel reality, and you need to always remember this: Everyone who plays this game at the NFL level is tough. Everyone. Except for maybe Tony Eason 30 years ago. There’s always one exception, right?
Kick it off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started …
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
Johnny Hekker: I’ll admit it: I didn’t know this guy from Ray Guy until Belichick began soliloquizing about Hekker, the Rams’ punter, during his Wednesday press conference. “This guy is a weapon,’’ said Belichick. “I mean, he’s not a good player. He’s a weapon.” Belichick wasn’t only talking about his ability to put the ball where he wants to, but also his ability to pull off fakes, citing his athleticism. Don’t know about you, but that’s enough for me to be intrigued. I’ll actually be paying attention during the punts Sunday. Here’s to the Patriots defense making sure he stays busy.
Todd Gurley: What’s going on here? Gurley was one of the most exciting college running backs I’ve ever seen (and second among Georgia backs only to Herschel Walker), averaging 6.4 yards per carry and rushing for 3,265 yards and 36 touchdowns in just 30 games at Georgia. He blew out his knee halfway through his junior season, but the Rams took a gamble on him with the 10th pick in the 2015 draft, and hit the jackpot immediately. As a rookie last season, Gurley ran for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns in just 13 games, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He looked like the Rams’ best running back since Eric Dickerson, Jerome Bettis included. This year, he’s still running like Eric Dickerson – but the current 56-year-old version of Dickerson. Gurley is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, down 50 percent from his average last year, with just four touchdowns. He has a dozen fewer carries and 228 fewer rushing yards than Blount, who will never be a first-round pick in fantasy football. Some of Gurley’s struggles have to do with the subpar line blocking for him, and the Case Keenum/Jared Goff combo at quarterback isn’t quite reminiscent of Kurt Warner’s heyday. But there have been many great backs with lousy supporting casts, and it’s strange to see such a talented young player struggling.
Dion Lewis/James White: As noted in the intro, the Patriots should still feature a potent offense in Gronk’s absence. But it would not hurt if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can cook up some other creative ways to bamboozle opposing defenses, who suddenly no longer have the burden of trying to figure out a way to contain Gronkowski. The emergence of rookie receiver Malcolm Mitchell might help pick up some of the slack. But it’s especially intriguing to wonder how he might deploy the Lewis/White in tandem out of the backfield. Lewis was probably the Patriots’ second-most electrifying playmaker last season before his knee injury, and he’s starting to look like his old self after returning against the Niners two weeks ago. And White has had a quietly impactful season – his conversion on 4th and 4 late in the win over the Jets demonstrated how he’s earned the trust of Belichick, McDaniels and Brady. Plus, LeGarrette Blount has already surpassed his career high with 212 carries. He’s still going to be a workhorse, especially as the weather gets colder, but he should cede some of his carries to Lewis down the stretch. It would benefit both of them.
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
Does Jeff Fisher’s existence in general count? He’s the Bill Belichick of pandering to league bigwigs for his own benefit. He’s conducts himself like Clint (aka Dominant Male Monkey) from Dazed and Confused, but with a mustache. He hasn’t won a playoff game since 2003, the week before his Titans lost to the Patriots in the Frozen Foxborough game (a hard-fought New England win that leads me to refuse to think of Bethel Johnson as a bust). He’s coached 21 full seasons. He has had a winning record in six of them.
Fisher is the most overrated coach in the league among those who aren’t part of the Ryan family tree. (He did play for Buddy Ryan with the Bears, however, and coached under him in Philadelphia.) All of that said, though, I don’t get those who fault him for not starting Jared Goff sooner. The No. 1 overall pick has looked promising in his two starts, which brings on a presumption that because he performed well when he finally got an opportunity, that the opportunity should have come sooner. I think that’s backward. I think it means the kid was properly prepared and handled correctly. Fisher appears to have done something right here. It’s an occasion so rare that it should be acknowledged.
PREDICTION, OR HOW ABOUT LETTING LAWYER MILLOY PLAY A FEW SNAPS FOR OLD TIMES’ SAKE
Love that the Patriots are honoring the 2001 Super Bowl champs against the Rams, the team they defeated in that seismic, franchise-altering victory. So what if most LA fans don’t even know that the Rams were in the Super Bowl 15 years ago, let alone won one once? It will be good to see the ’01 alums again – and it will offer another angle from which to marvel at Brady’s prolonged and unyielding brilliance. As for the game, let’s put it this way: Belichick’s last two victories over Fisher-coached teams have been by a combined 104-7 margin – and I bet he’s mad about the 7. The Patriots should hammer the Rams today, even without Gronk. But the priorities should be more fundamental than desiring a blowout. If they win and stay healthy, it’s a successful day. The former is more certain than the latter. Patriots 33, Rams 10.
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