Unconventional Preview: The Bengals are the unfortunate opponent at Tom Brady’s homecoming
Cincinnati has a good team despite its 2-3 record. But this is not the Sunday to be visiting Gillette.
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 5, Episode 6 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, occasionally nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend.
I figure anyone who reads this weekly missive on purpose probably has a pretty good idea that Bill Belichick is the longest-tenured coach in the NFL. He’s been with the Patriots since 2000, a season in which other AFC East coaches were Miami’s Dave Wannstedt, the NYJ’s Al Groh, Buffalo’s Wade Phillips, and Indianapolis’s Jim Mora, who like Belichick did not make the …
… that season.
So, yeah, it’s been awhile.
But did you know that the current coach with the second-longest tenure in the league also will be at Gillette Stadium on Sunday? Marvin Lewis has been the Bengals coach since 2003, when he took over for Dick LeBeau. That’s three years longer than the two coaches tied for the next-longest tenure, the Saints’ Sean Payton and the Packers’ Mike McCarthy, who took over their respective programs in 2006.
Lewis’s endurance initially seems bewildering when you consider he still has not won a playoff game in Cincinnati, going 0 for 7 so far. (Go ahead, call him the David Price of NFL coaches. We all thought it. I’ll wait.) But it makes more sense if you consider the Bengals’ coaching history.
The franchise has had just nine coaches in their history, beginning with Paul Brown in 1968. (The Bills have had eight alone since 2000.) Just three of those Cincy coaches — Forrest Gregg, Bill Johnson, and Lewis — have a winning record. (Paul Brown, who has a franchise named after him, went 55-56-1 in eight seasons.)
So prolonged mediocrity looks pretty good to the Bengals, historically. And Lewis has actually been much better than mediocre: The team has 99 more wins than losses on his watch, and they’ve won at least 10 games each of the last four years. So Lewis deserves his job, despite his 0-for-the-postseason. He’d probably get hired pretty fast if they fired him. Probably by the Bills.
I have no idea why I went off on this digression on the Bengals’ coaching history, but there you go. To more important matters: Tom Brady is playing his first home game since Jan. 16, when the Patriots beat the Chiefs, 27-20, in the Divisional Playoff round. He’s coming off a season debut in Cleveland in which he’d looked as sharp as he ever has, which is phenomenal in about 50 different ways. (What if the layoff made him … better?) About 70,000 people at Gillette are going to be fully amped as he reintroduces himself again.
The Bengals arrive as the would-be foil to the festivities, but they haven’t looked too foil-like lately, dropping to 2-3 with last week’s 28-14 loss to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. But they remain one of the most talented teams in the AFC, and they have the dynamic A.J. Green and … well, a coach who has been around a long time, as I may have mentioned. They should not be taken as the typical lightweight opponent scheduled for a homecoming game. Even if it might look that way at the end.
Kick it off Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started. (Also, stop missing the occasional field goal if you could, Steve. The shriekers are noticing …)
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
A.J. Green: Now this is going to be interesting. The Patriots rank in the middle of the league (15th) in pass defense, allowing 258.6 yards per game. Green is one of the elite receivers in the NFL, a status backed up by statistics: He’s second to Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown in receptions (37), second to Detroit’s Marvin Jones in receiving yards (518), and has nine catches of at least 20 yards. The Bengals are thin in pass-catchers: Jones and Mohamed Sanu left as free agents, and tight end Tyler Eifert hasn’t played a down this season due to ankle injury. That would make it appear relatively simple for the Patriots’ defense to take its usual approach of doing all it can to take away the most important weapon on the opposing offense, since Green is clearly that player. They’ve done it to Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins already this season, but as Belichick explained this week, Green’s fearlessness and versatility as a route-runner makes defending him extremely challenging.
Brandon LaFell: The former Patriots receiver has made a healthy contribution as the best of the Bengals’ brigade of non-Green receivers, catching 21 passes for 276 yards so far, with a pair of touchdowns, both against Dallas last week. But this isn’t about what he’s doing there. It’s a reminder of what he once did here. He’s someone Patriots fans should remember well, despite a disappointing 2015 season in which he struggled with injury and seemed to drop every other pass thrown his way. LaFell was a great fit with the 2014 Patriots, a tough blocker who had a couple of huge catches in the postseason, including a touchdown against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game that might have been the best throw Brady has ever made. (Seriously.)
When he was at his best, he’s the closest thing they’ve had to David Givens since the real thing departed for free agency after the 2004 season. The Patriots might have won a fourth Super Bowl title without LaFell, but he was an important part of making sure it happened.
Jabaal Sheard: I’ll also accept Chris Long, Jamie Collins, and any other potential Patriots pass rusher on this list, up to and including Barkevious Mingo in a stunningly increased role. The Bengals’ line has allowed 17 sacks this season. The Patriots are due for a few, with just nine as a team so far. Sheard is the leader with three. The Bengals would seem to offer a decent opportunity for the Patriots to get to the quarterback more than their 1.8-sacks-per-game average would suggest.
PREDICTION, OR WELCOME BACK TO WHERE YOU’VE ALWAYS BELONGED: The Bengals are good team coming off a bad loss, which in my completely unscientific belief tends to lead to a better performance the next week. They certainly need this game more than the Patriots do. But that’s not going to matter. The excitement about Brady’s first home performance in 10 months — and the fact that Brady’s performance level is apparently still set at “best ever” — is going to turn the Bengals’ need for a victory into full-on desperation next week. Because they’re not going to win this one, not on Brady’s turf, not during his way overdue homecoming. Patriots 34, Bengals 20.
* * *
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK:
I’m hesitant to get into this for what should be obvious reasons, which is why I moved this section to the end the column this week. But these are not normal days, so here we go: I wish Tom Brady would elaborate on his friendship with Donald Trump if he doesn’t want to outright disavow it. And it bugs me that he dodges the subject, because it’s making me reconsider who I believe Brady to be.
To some degree, I understand why he doesn’t talk about this: He typically takes the Derek Jeter approach and tends to keep his personal feelings on matters outside of football to himself. It’s usually worked for him, even if he sometimes appears in possession of more style than substance. I also suspect he knows this is the rare can’t-win situation for him. If he disavows Trump, he looks like a disloyal friend, and loyalty matters to him. If he praises him … well, hell, that opens up a bunch of other lines of more complicated and pointed questioning, perhaps even from his own teammates.
But the controversial question asked of him Wednesday was more than fair: “Tom, you have kids of your own,” asked NECN’s David Choe. “How would you respond if your kids heard Donald Trump’s version of ‘locker room talk?'” Brady, smiling, ended the press conference before answering, which is his prerogative. But at a time when other high-profile athletes have denounced Trump’s comments, and others aren’t shying away from bold and controversial stances, to see Brady shy away is a small if expected letdown, especially for someone who is wise enough to appreciate Muhammed Ali’s affect on society. This reeks somewhat of Michael Jordan’s comments about selling sneakers, way back before he found a soul.
Mostly, though, I’m curious: Is this real? Does Brady really like Trump, that race-baiting, women-hating, narcissistic, ignorant braggart? If so: Why? Why would a man of apparent character want to be attached to a man who has demonstrated none? Does he know he’s being used?
Trump likes to tout his friendship with Brady for pandering political gain — he did again Saturday in New Hampshire. Brady has acknowledged their friendship in the recent past, telling WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan show in December, “Can I just stay out of this debate? Donald is a good friend of mine. I have known him for a long time. I support all my friends. That is what I have to say. He’s a good friend of mine. He’s always been so supportive of me.”
He’s supportive of Brady. That’s great. But December was a long time ago. So much has happened — so many gross words, actions and allegations — that I’m wondering what Trump would have to do or say to lose Brady’s support, however thick or thin it may be. I have a ton of respect for what I know of Brady as a human being. I saw him be kind and thoughtful to so many people through the five years I was at Gillette on a regular basis. I believe he is a good man.
That’s why his apparent I’m-staying-out-of-it brand of loyalty is so bewildering. Supporting a budding demagogue because he’s a golf buddy does not jibe with the image he’s been so careful to curate, and I sure as hell hope it doesn’t jibe with who he really is. For all of us, for the sake of democracy, it’s well past time to stay out of the debate.
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