Bengals-Patriots prediction roundup: The curious case of Stephen Gostkowski
Stephen Gostkowski can't be missing field goals in the playoffs this season.
COMMENTARY
When does Stephen Gostkowski become an issue?
It hasn’t been the most comforting beginning to the 2016 NFL season for the New England Patriots kicker. Gostkowski has already missed three field goals over the first five games, as many as he missed all of last year, and the most on his resume since 2012. He shanked a 50-yarder during last Sunday’s win in Cleveland, adding to the 39-and 48-yard attempts that have also gone awry this season.
He hasn’t cost them anything but a shutout at the hands of the Buffalo Bills with any of his errors, but with the Pittsburgh Steelers, those same Bills, and the Seattle Seahawks (a combined 10-4) looming in the weeks after the Cincinnati Bengals, more tenacious competition might come down to Gostkowski’s right foot.
What then?
“Stephen’s one of our hardest-working players and I’d say one of the most-respected players on the team because of the way he does work and how team-oriented he is,” Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. “Whatever we’ve asked him to do, whether it be the training things or kickoffs or situations, the amount of field goals where we’ve had multiple holders and snappers over the course of his career. He does a great job of working with those guys and just working to make the operation better and more consistent. We’ll keep doing that just like we do with everything else in our program.”
He’s also the highest-paid kicker in the league, making $4.3 million this season, and there is of course the theory that all this stems from the missed extra point in last January’s AFC title game in Denver. Is it lingering bad mojo from that incident, or merely early-season bad luck?
As Joe Lewis of the Musket Fire blog points out, “What makes Gostkowski’s case even more curious is that he continues to excel in the kickoff game. His penchant for pinning opposing returners deep in their own territory — flipping the new touchback rules on their head in the process — has paid enormous dividends for the Patriots. Through five games, New England’s opponents have the worst average starting field position (22-yard line) in the league.
Gostkowski’s troubles could stem from the mental tremors of that costly miss against the Broncos, or it could be a mechanical issue that he needs to cure before it gets out of hand.
“I’m obviously not playing up to my standards, but there’s a new shot next week,” Gostkowski said.
Here it is. If he continues to struggle though, how many more new shots will Belichick allow to remain?
This week’s picks
ESPN.com: Eight out of nine pick the Patriots
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 27, Bengals 23. “This seems like it should be a Game of the Week contender, except that Cincinnati has disappointed. Beware the ’Gals, though. Their three losses were to teams that are a combined 12-3. I always trust Tom Brady at home, where he is 112-18 as a starter, and this is his homecoming love-in after last week’s post-suspension debut was on road. But Cincy keeps it close.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 31, Bengals 27. “The Bengals are playing consecutive road games, and this is against the best team in the AFC. That makes it tougher. But if the Bengals are to turn their season back on track, they have to find a way here. I just don’t think they can. Tom Brady plays big again.”
CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick New England (Patriots -9).
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with a 70 percent chance of winning.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 41, Bengals 26. “The Patriots once again are on to Cincinnati. Once again, they’ll be all over Cincinnati.”
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Bengals 20. “Tom Brady had no trouble shaking off the rust last week and should turn in a big performance this week as well. The Bengals are falling into a deep hole in the AFC playoff race.”
Mass Live staff: All Pats.
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 34, Bengals 17. “This seems like a monstrous number, but it is Tom Brady’s first home game of the season, and he’ll be ready to put another show … only a little less rusty after throwing for four hundy in Cleveland. The Bengals are getting worked on both fronts and are bungling away what was an assumed return trip to likely lose in the playoffs. Roll with Bill Belichick’s creativity vs. Marvin Lewis’ boring, limited approach.”
David Steele, Sporting News: Patriots 36, Bengals 20. “The way the Bengals were never in the game in Dallas last week indicates they’re not prone to just snapping back to their form from last season. They can’t protect Andy Dalton at all, and they let the Cowboys run up and down the field at will. This is Tom Brady’s first post-suspension home game. It could get ugly.”
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 30, Bengals 20. “Tough to pick against Tom Brady in his homecoming game, no? And though I can’t blame Andy Dalton, I just don’t see the Bengals offense being what it was with Hue Jackson at the helm the past few years. Brady has a full arsenal of weapons, a chip the size of a boulder on his shoulder and a national audience to entertain. Yeah, I’ll take New England.”
Bryan Altman, CBS Sports: Patriots. “Honestly, the Patriots deserve to have a Geico commercial dedicated to them: “When you’re the Patriots, you just win… that’s what you do.” But laying nine points to the Bengals? I’ll pass.”
USA Today staff: All Patriots.
SB Nation staff: New England across the board.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “Defletey McGee took out his (absolutely, 100% justified) suspension on the Browns on the road last week. This week, Defletey will come home and continue his “I’m mad because the NFL caught me cheating” tour in front of the hometown apologists. 😉 Bengals headsets are sure to fail.”
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 38, Bengals 24. “Man, have you ever seen one player’s return spark a whole team like we saw in the Pats’ visit to Cleveland last Sunday? Amazing how that guy motivated his entire unit, pushing New England not just over the Browns but into that-side-of-the-ball-might-get-us-into-the-Super-Bowl territory. Yep, Rob Ninkovich really played his ass off. The Patriots’ defense is allowing a paltry 14.8 points per game (tops in the AFC), despite not getting to the quarterback often in terms of sacks. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ offensive and defensive lines were beaten at the point of attack in Dallas. New England’s front seven > Dallas’ front seven. Offensive line? Maybe not. Yet, it’s a solid unit in New England. If the Bengals are to have a chance, Carlos Dunlap, Domata Peko and Geno Atkins must win their battles.”
Globe staff: Three out of five pick the Pats (New England -8.5).
It says here: Patriots 33, Bengals 24. You might hear a ”Bra-dy” chant or two.
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