Jimmy Garoppolo should be fine, but Patriots have the talent to cover for him even if he isn’t
The current roster might be the deepest Bill Belichick has had since 2007—and just wait until you-know-who returns.
COMMENTARY
Upon first glance, this may not come across as an especially optimistic outlook for the first quarter of the Patriots’ new season. But it is optimistic, even as we first must consider a theoretical worst-case scenario that is both unlikely and not all that bad:
The Patriots will be fine, and probably much better than fine, through their four Tom Brady-less games unless — and only unless — Jimmy Garoppolo absolutely stinks.
That’s all that will stop them, other than a run of catastrophic injuries, I suppose. But make no mistake: I’m not talking about a league-average, game-manager-type of performance that puts Garoppolo in that AJ McCarron/Brock Osweiler vortex, where you’re really not sure if he’s any good at all even after seeing him play for a decent-sized sample. If Garoppolo hits that low bar, the Patriots are still going at least 2-2, and probably better.
No, I’m talking about a five-step drop to lousiness. I’m talking about Craig Whelihan/Scott Secules depths of quarterbacking ineptitude. I’m talking about playing like someone the Browns might have drafted. I’m talking about Peyton Manning last November against the Chiefs. Right, that kind of bad. Like a one-man Football Follies. If Garoppolo is a bum, and nothing but a bum, well, yeah, then he can undermine them.
That’s what the rest of the league is hoping. And as usual, the rest of the league is probably going to be bitterly disappointed at how things turn out for the Patriots.
I don’t believe Garoppolo will play poorly. I suspect he’ll prove to be pretty good, and better-than-average statistically given the talent he has to work with. He might even be such a revelation that when the season’s first month is complete and Brady is back in his rightful place, we won’t be sure whether Garoppolo should be kept as the eventual successor or traded for a high draft pick, with both being similarly appealing options.
He’ll be ready for this: Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have plenty of time to prepare and tweak as necessary. And as frustrating and unjust as it has been to watch Brady get railroaded by the slimy reptiles who run the league, it will be fascinating to discover what Garoppolo can do. Many of his apparent tools and attributes — especially when it comes to out-of-the-pocket mobility — are dissimilar to Brady’s. That in itself will make the Patriots’ offense appear not quite as familiar as it has for, oh, the last four or so years, since Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman emerged as Brady’s primary playmakers.
They are, however, part of the fundamental reason why the Patriots will succeed even if Garoppolo somehow is not fully up to the task. This team is stacked. I’m not sure the roster is as deep entering this season as it was in 2004 (when the Patriots finished fourth in the league in points scored and second in points allowed) or ’07 (when they set a league record with 589 points while ranking fourth in points allowed), but then, I consider those to be the two most well-constructed and dominant teams of this decade-and-a-half run of staggering excellence.
Of course, we won’t know until the Super Bowl whether the ’16 Patriots will be regarded as one of the best of Belichick’s tenure. There are plenty of candidates to choose from — hell, I haven’t even mentioned three other Super Bowl-winning seasons — and injuries and the long season can ruin even the most reasonable daydreams. But just looking at the prime-of-career star-power and quality depth all over the roster, this might be already be the third most-talented team of Belichick’s run. That’s saying something.
I’m not sure where their weaknesses are supposed to be found. My personal favorite Patriots defenses remain the 2003-04 units, featuring Willie McGinest, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Ty Law (before his ’04 foot injury). That’s a closet full of red Patriots Hall of Fame jackets right there. The current group might have as much pure talent, led by Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Jabaal Sheard, Devin McCourty, and Malcolm Butler, and I’m almost certain it has more depth. They have the potential to win games without the cooperation of the offense.
And the offense is going to cooperate. Oh yeah, it is. The passing game is as deep as it has been since 2007, with the singular Gronkowski joined by Edelman, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett, and an intriguing cast of helpful complementary players. Dion Lewis, last season’s dynamic revelation, will be back from his knee injury to aid the passing and running attacks, and LeGarrette Blount remains as the battering ram, with former Colts No. 1 pick Donald Brown among those battling for carries.
Special teams should be stellar, with Stephen Gostkowski kicking ‘em, Matthew Slater covering ‘em, and rookie Cyrus Jones returning ‘em. It’s always fun to discover the no-name special teams ace that Belichick seems to find every year. I don’t know how you can look at their depth chart right now and not come to two primary conclusions: Belichick has built a beast and the Patriots are going to have to cut multiple quality NFL players.
I’m not trying to tempt fate and the ever-active injury gods (most of whom are Roger Goodell-approved Jets fans, I hear) with all of this marveling at the Patriots’ roster. But I just don’t believe they have an area of mediocrity, let alone weakness, presuming they remain relatively healthy. I know the offensive line is a favorite topic of the radio caterwaulers, and that’s somewhat understandable. Our lasting images of the most recent AFC Championship Game are of Brady being under constant and brutal siege by an overwhelming Broncos pass rush.
But that was last season. With Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer presumably healthy at the tackle spots, and healthy competition in the interior among some holdovers (Josh Kline, Bryan Stork) and youngsters (Shaq Mason, Tre Jackson, David Andrews and Joe Thuney), it’s reasonable to assume that Dante Scarnecchia, returning from a two-year hiatus, will again masterfully shape the talent into a cohesive unit.
Brady managed to lead the league in touchdown passes (36) and take the Patriots to the verge of a second straight Super Bowl appearances playing behind that jumbled line — and this one will be better.
They let him get knocked down a lot when it mattered most a season ago. Now, the line is poised to join the rest of this loaded roster in helping to pick up Brady’s inexperienced but intriguing stand-in for the season’s first four games.
If Jimmy Garoppolo is just OK — that’s all, OK — the Patriots will be better than fine. And just imagine the destruction they will unleash on the rest of the league when the greatest quarterback ever to play returns to their talent-laden huddle. Probably not what the rest of the league had in mind when pushing the commissioner to punish the Patriots, huh?
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