Tom Brady’s greatness hasn’t expired yet, but Patriots can’t really count on it forever
AP Photo
COMMENTARY
Maybe we made the wrong parallel all along.
For certain, there would have been plenty of historical significance to digest with the possibility of the New England Patriots earning a trip to Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, Calif. It would have given Patriots quarterback Tom Brady the opportunity to possibly win his fifth Super Bowl title in his childhood backyard, leapfrogging him over his boyhood idol, Joe Montana, in a region where the former San Francisco 49ers quarterback established himself as, perhaps, the greatest quarterback to ever play in the NFL.
But what if there were a more dire comparison to make?
The 49ers — generally realized as the NFL’s last, great dynasty before the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick — haven’t won a Super Bowl title since Steve Young and Co. blasted by the San Diego Chargers in 1994. San Francisco made a seamless transition from Montana, who was jettisoned to Kansas City, to Young, and though it took four full seasons to get back there, the franchise was rewarded with its fifth Lombardi Trophy in wake of the switch.
No, this isn’t a plea for Belichick to hand the reins to backup Jimmy Garoppolo in 2016, but instead an admittedly premature apprehension that the New England Patriots, as we’ve known them for the last 15 years, will one day cease to exist in that echelon.
As silly as it sounds, one year removed from the Patriots’ fourth Super Bowl title, what exactly is the window for a fifth and beyond?
It’s tighter than it was Sunday morning, just before the Denver Broncos utterly dominated the Patriots, 20-18, in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and the Denver defense abused Brady, hitting him a season-high 20 times during an approach pristinely drawn up by Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Philips. It was a damned near-miracle that the Patriots nearly tied the game in the final seconds, a frustrating recollection of second-guesses that might have inexplicably given the Patriots an improbable victory with a different execution.
If Brady has another Super Bowl title in his right arm, he’ll have to do it at the age of 39, which would make him the oldest quarterback to ever win an NFL title (provided 39-year-old Peyton Manning doesn’t upset the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50). Montana, for the record, was 33 when he won his last title with the 49ers in 1989. Brady, of course, was 37 in 2014.
Maybe Brady does have another 10 years left in him to play in an NFL uniform. To figure he has 10 more good years ahead of him though is probably foolhardy. One only needs to look at the dropoff that Peyton Manning has endured over the last two seasons, back in the Super Bowl by virtue of the Broncos’ defense, not his noodle arm.
Every shred of reality suggests that Brady won’t have a decade’s worth of realistic chances. Each season’s end brings with it a knock of football mortality, the hint that the next time around will be even more difficult to get there.
“I want to win it every year.’’ Brady said after tossing one touchdown and a pair of interceptions against the Broncos on Sunday. “I’d love to finish in the last game of the year and win it. It’s a pretty tough thing to do. Hopefully I have more opportunities for that.’’
He will. But how many?
It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Brady only has two or three more realistic shots at winning another title. Even if he does play until he’s 48, as he suggested he might last fall, how many of those seasons will be either going through a decline in skills or a less-than-rapid recovery from the daily bruises of the game? Brady is famously in great shape (his bat-$%#@ insane diet aside), but even George Blanda shed the quarterbacking duties nine years before he finally retired.
Give Brady another five seasons compared to what he managed in 2014, which was only an MVP-worthy campaign. Does that sound about right? Too few? Too many? Do the Patriots replenish the offensive line in time for 2016? And if not, would you like to go as low as two more seasons?
If Brady only had one Super Bowl title in between ages 27 and 37 — despite going to three over that span — wouldn’t it be foolish to presume he has more than one more coming to him between ages 38 and 40-whatever?
If any?
It’s only natural to start wondering where this franchise goes once Brady and Belichick call it a career, whether they go out hand-in-hand, or off to a separate pasture in order to break the dependency for a career bookending.
What becomes of the New England Patriots then?
It’s a timeframe that nobody wants to acknowledge, even as its inevitability looms closer with every playoff defeat. There will be a day when neither Brady nor Belichick will be roaming the sidelines at Gillette Stadium, as foreign as that thought seems.
What happens then? Does the franchise re-tool and keep knocking on the door, a la the 49ers in the eight years following their Super Bowl run? Or do they become an also-ran as San Francisco managed to do from 2003-2010, eight playoff-less seasons?
How much do Brady and Belichick have left in them, and how much is realistic to expect?
To be continued, September, 2016.
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur and Facebook www.facebook.com/GlobeEricWilbur
Photos from the Patriots’ loss in the AFC Championship
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