Patriots-Broncos prediction roundup: Brady, Patriots not looking to cement legacies, but re-write them
Tom Brady dressed as Joe Montana on Halloween 1983. From Tom Brady’s facebook page.
COMMENTARY
Should the New England Patriots win in Denver on Sunday, it will thrust quarterback Tom Brady to his seventh Super Bowl, two more than John Elway ever played in, three more than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Roger Staubach, and Jim Kelly.
It would be the seventh run at the Lombardi Trophy for Bill Belichick as a head coach, his 10th visit overall. It would give the Patriots franchise nine Super Bowl appearances in all, a number that would leapfrog the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers for the most by any team in NFL history.
If last year’s run at a fourth Super Bowl title was redemptive, what with the off-field drama and backyard science that accompanied it, then this year’s serves as an outlet to not only thumb a collective nose at offseason persecution, but to also replace the middle finger with an exclamation point. If Brady and the Patriots win No. 5, only the foolish will latch onto delusions of grandeur.
Legacies won’t be cemented. They’ll instead be re-written into a new standard that might as well make everything that happened in the previous 49 years of the NFL’s premier event the Old Testament of the league.
Of course, there’s still the matter of getting by the Denver Broncos in Sunday’s AFC Championship game, but besides the Patriots having to hit the road for the tilt, everything else is seemingly paved perfectly for a compelling trip to Santa Clara, Calif.
Brady grew up less than 30 miles from Levi’s Stadium, where Super Bowl 50 will take place. With a win, he’d pass his boyhood idol, local legend Montana, for most Super Bowl victories in a career with five. With a third Super Bowl MVP, he’d force commissioner Roger Goodell, whom he likely last saw in Judge Richard Berman’s chambers last summer, the indignity of handing the trophy and car keys over to a guy that the commissioner foolishly and hopelessly persecuted in 2015.
I mean, this has to happen, right?
Not to sound greedy, but the Patriots failing to win Super Bowl 50 might be on par with the disappointment of watching David Tyree and Co. snatch the 19-0 season from the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Forget perfection, this is a perfect storm, the ultimate opportunity to prove those in charge of the NFL to be the vindictive, bumbling fools that they are, as well as do it in a setting that groomed the protagonist.
Brady vs. Goodell invading the Super Bowl would be inevitable. Brady vs. Goodell in Brady’s hometown, though, would be something else.
Indeed, there would be no more fitting way to bookend the both bizarre and resilient calendar year that Brady went through than by raising one more Lombardi Trophy, the storied ending befitting of a Hollywood script. Kind of like Brady’s life to date.
The Patriots are favored to get there, and Vegas also has them getting the nod against either the Carolina Panthers or Arizona Cardinals. But despite some knee-jerk projections of weekending bravado, the general consensus in New England isn’t to book flights to SFO just yet. Strange things tend to happen in Denver. Champ Bailey. Chris Harper. Keeping Chandler Jones away from the dispensary.
It’s a place where Brady — 194-59 in his career — is only 2-6, managing to defeat only Tim Tebow and Danny Kannell among his Bronco counterparts. He hasn’t beaten Peyton Manning in the postseason since 2005, back when he was a nifty 6-0 against his longtime rival.
But if the stakes are high Sunday, they’re nothing compared to what everyone might start dissecting next week. Brady has a chance to write his own ending to what has been one hell of a year.
One Manning has already stood in the way of perfection. What’re the odds that they’ll both deny him?
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Patriots and Broncos:
ESPN.com: Seven out of eight pick the Patriots.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 27, Broncos 23. “You’d not be nuts to be tempted by Denver as a home ’dog, despite Peyton Manning’s decline and frailty at the end of what has been an awful season for him. Bill Belichick is only 8-12 vs. the Broncos and Tom Brady is 2-6 at Mile High. Denver leads 3-1 in playoff meetings and won 30-24 in Week 12. Also, Denver’s better than typical home-field edge is a big reason the Broncos are 16-5 at home in the postseason. So, whether it is those trends, the Broncos’ superior defense or a sentimental gut belief that Manning has more heroic game left in him, liking the homies here is not insane. (Here comes the “but,’’ of course). The defending champion Patriots are hell-bent driven by the Deflategate mess that shadowed them into the season, and driven more literally by the NFL’s best-ever playoff duo in Belichick and Brady. This is the Pats’ fifth straight AFC Championship Game, and in the Super Bowl era only the 1973-77 Raiders have done that. And now that Brady has Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both back to augment Rob Gronkowski, it’ll be tough for even the Broncos’ mighty defense to hold NE under four touchdowns. The cold and perhaps damp weather will be a neutral factor here, but this won’t be: A still-great Brady vs. the near-empty husk of Manning.’’
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Broncos 23, Patriots 21. “This is another version of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Or is it Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning? Does it matter? They are two greats who could be meeting for the final time in the playoffs with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It doesn’t get better than that. Brady is still playing at a high level, while Manning isn’t what he used to be. But he also isn’t as bad some critics would lead you to believe. Manning had nine drops last week in the victory over the Steelers. Nine. That’s astounding, and anybody who said it’s because his ball lacks velocity is being foolish. The Broncos beat the Patriots earlier this season, but that was with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, and the Patriots were really banged up in that one. Denver ran for 176 yards that day. They will need to do run it well again here to have a chance. The New England passing game plays fast with quick throws. That helps negate the pass rush. But I think Denver has the man-cover players to take away the quick throws. The Patriots will still move the ball, but it will be a late turnover that changes this one. It’s a tight one all the way, but in the end the Broncos will pull off the upset.’’
CBS Sports staff: Five out of eight pick New England (+3.5). Seven of the eight pick the Patriots straight-up.
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Broncos 19, Patriots 17. “Well, this is it. I took New England to win the Super Bowl before the season, haven’t picked against them all year, and think a healthy Gronkowski and Edelman make them an awfully tough team to beat. Remember, for as much success as Denver had against the Patriots the first time the two teams played, neither Julian Edelman nor Danny Amendola suited up for the game. All that understood, and yet I find myself leaning toward Denver on Sunday. Manning isn’t what he once was. But this version — the one we saw last week — may be good enough to win this weekend. With the turnovers kept to a minimum, Manning found a way to take a back seat to the defense and let Wade Phillips’ unit control the game. This isn’t a Gary Kubiak over Bill Belichick pick, and it’s not a Manning over Brady. It’s a Wade Phillips pick. I’m taking the Broncos, the home field and a No. 1-ranked defense that has had all the answers all season long.’’
Foxsports.com staff: Four out of seven pick the Patriots.
Joe Manniello, Newsday: Patriots 30, Broncos 13. “This game has been billed as Brady-Manning XVII, as legendary quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning meet for possibly the last time. Here’s the thing: Manning is an all-time great, and he seems like one of the nicest guys in the game, but if I was in charge of the Broncos, I would make this game about another XVII. Yep, I would go with Brock Osweiler. (He wears No. 17, in case you haven’t been following this season). Remember, Osweiler had his breakout moment in Week 12 when he led a comeback overtime win against the then-unbeaten Patriots on that snowy night in Denver. In a perfect world, Denver would probably love to have Manning audible at the line and read defenses, then have Osweiler and his stronger arm actually make the throws. When Manning was the best quarterback in the NFL, he struggled against Bill Belichick’s defenses in multiple playoff games. Now, he’s nowhere near that player, and even though the Patriots are dealing with defensive injuries, Belichick’s “next man up’’ approach will get the job done. Denver’s offense didn’t impress me last week, settling for five field goals and scoring only one touchdown in its win over Pittsburgh. I think the Broncos offense will struggle again this week. What Denver does have going for itself is two big things: 1) The game is in Denver, not an easy place to play, and a place in which Brady has struggled (2-6 overall, 0-2 in postseason); 2) Denver has a dominant defense. Still, the Patriots have a lot of numbers in their favor, especially No. 12, No. 11 and No. 87. Brady didn’t have Julian Edelman for the entire game in Denver this season, and Rob Gronkowski was injured late. With both of Brady’s favorite receiving targets being healthy, I expect big games from them. It also doesn’t help Denver that they started trash-talking Brady and Gronkowski this week. Big mistake. This season started as the DeflateGate Revenge Tour, and we’re only one game away from the possibility of Twitter blowing up when Roger Goodell has to hand the trophy to the Patriots. Let the talk of that scenario begin, because the Patriots will be “on to Santa Clara’’ after they win by XVII.’’
FiveThirtyEight: Denver with a 59 percent chance of winning.
SB Nation staff: Five out of eight pick the Pats.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Broncos 23. “Tom Brady has won only 25 percent of his career starts in Denver, beating Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow and losing to the likes of Brian Griese and Kyle Orton. Last time, the Pats fell in overtime after losing Rob Gronkowski late and not having Julian Edelman at all. This time, Brady has both — and star Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. has a shoulder injury that left him playing with one arm against the Steelers. The one arm that matters most will be the right arm of Brady, who continues his post-#DeflateGate quest to spoil the NFL’s golden Super Bowl party by grabbing something silver from Roger Goodell — and perhaps then telling him to stick this in his trophy case.’’
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 27, Broncos 17. “The Broncos have been winning all year with their defense, but the Patriots’ offense looks well-suited to beating the Broncos, with Tom Brady throwing short, quick passes to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. Brady throws the ball so quickly that the Broncos’ pass rush won’t have a lot of time to get to him, and that gives the Patriots an edge. New England will surely score a lot more than the 16 points the Steelers managed in Denver on Sunday. So the question is, Can the Broncos’ offense keep up? I have my doubts. Bill Belichick will dare Peyton Manning to try to go deep against the Patriots’ defense, and Manning just doesn’t have the zip and accuracy on his deep balls that he once did. The Patriots’ defense will frustrate Manning into a rough game, and the Patriots will win.’’
Neil Greenberg, Washington Post: Winner: Patriots, 58 percent. Pick: Patriots. “The Denver Broncos had a historically good defense but could be missing a key cog on Sunday if cornerback Chris Harris, Jr. continues to be limited by a shoulder problem.
Per Pro Football Focus, Harris allowed the fewest yards per cover snap in the slot (0.74) and quarterbacks had a league-low 58.5 rating when throwing in his direction. However, he allowed huge gains to Steelers’ receivers last Sunday. Sammie Coates caught both of his targets for 61 yards with 44 coming after the catch and Martavis Bryant caught 2 of 3 for 55 yards, 45 after the catch.’’
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Patriots. “Should the stars align perfectly, and Manning has an efficient, turnover-free game, the talent is in place for an upset. But expecting that is probably too generous for a player who appears to have hung on one year too long. A more realistic result is a game in which Denver’s defense keeps things close but the team ultimately comes up short.’’
Microsoft Cortana: Patriots 53% chance to win
Benjamin Hoffman, New York Times: Patriots. “Denver’s coach, Gary Kubiak, worked his way up the coaching ranks under Mike Shanahan, one of the few coaches who had consistent success against Bill Belichick’s Patriots, and he has hinted at using two tight ends regularly Sunday to try to emulate that success. If Owen Daniels, Virgil Green and Vernon Davis can effectively confuse New England’s injury-depleted front seven, and thus give some room to the team’s running backs and additional time for Manning to find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders down the field, Denver’s offense could rediscover its groove.
But betting against a Tom Brady-led team in the playoffs is nearly always foolish, and despite a lack of a consistent running game, New England is still dangerous provided Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are playing near 100 percent.
Should the stars align perfectly, and Manning has an efficient, turnover-free game, the talent is in place for an upset. But expecting that is probably too generous for a player who appears to have hung on one year too long. A more realistic result is a game in which Denver’s defense keeps things close but the team ultimately comes up short.’’
John McClain, Houston Chronicle: Patriots 23, Broncos 17.
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “The Broncos have a better non-quarterback roster and an outstanding defense, but the disparity in quarterbacks here is enormous. Football is a team sport. Obviously this is not tennis, where one individual plays another. However, all time, in games in which Brady faced off against Manning, the Patri*ts are 11-5. And most of that was when Manning was actually good. A week ago, the Broncos narrowly squeaked by a Steelers team missing Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, and DeAngelo Williams. This is a weak “1 seed’’ ripe for the picking.’’
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 24, Broncos 20. “All the chatter regarding the AFC Championship Game centers around Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning. Appropriate, given the historical significance of these two going at it … again. Brady is 11-5 versus Manning-led teams, but interestingly enough, he’s lost two of the three AFC title bouts. The one win was significant: 24-14 over the Colts at Foxborough in the 2003 postseason, with Manning throwing four picks, including three to Ty Law. (Why no Hall consideration for that guy!? Conversation for another time.) After the game, Bill Polian, who was Indy’s general manager at the time, complained to the league about the Patriot linebackers redirecting Colts receivers, thus inspiring a “reemphasis’’ of the illegal-contact rule. Enjoy all those automatic first downs, people.
Of which the Broncos are going to need a few. Especially if the run game can’t going. When these two teams faced off in November, C.J. Anderson and Co. were stuck in the mud — that is, while Dont’a Hightower was in the game. With Hightower on the field, Denver ran 16 times for 46 yards and zero scores. When Hightower departed with an injury, however, Denver went nuts running the ball, racking up 133 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries. Don’t forget that Jamie Collins missed that Week 12 matchup as well.
So with the Patriots’ offense at mostly full strength, you know they will be able to at least move the ball on a stout Broncos defense, even if getting much more than 20 points will be difficult. Question is, can Manning carry Denver if Anderson and Ronnie Hillman are stymied? The thinking here is no.’’
It says here: Patriots 27, Broncos 24. With Gronkowski, Edelman, and Amendola in the lineup, Brady is 9-0 this season. A late surge by the Denver offense puts things in doubt, but Stephen Gostkowski’s late field goal seals another trip to the Super Bowl. Carolina on tap.
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur and Facebook www.facebook.com/GlobeEricWilbur
Photos: Brady-Manning showdowns through the years
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