5 keys for a Patriots win over the Broncos
COMMENTARY
This edition of Manning vs. Brady is about more than just the quarterbacks.
The Patriots are facing a Denver team who, on paper, are a favorable matchup — that is, as favorable as you can get for an AFC Championship Game. Peyton Manning is, at best, efficient but not prolific and, at worst, turnover-prone. The Denver defense is excellent, but when Tom Brady’s at the helm, no defense is unbeatable — especially with the relative health of top offensive threats Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and James White.
But then again, the game is in Denver. At mile-high altitude, the Patriots are 3-16 since 1970, and they have never won a playoff game in Denver.
So while everything fell into place for the Patriots against the Chiefs, there’s no guarantee it won’t fall out of place against the Broncos.
Here are the 5 keys for a New England win over Denver.
1. Tom Brady needs to be faster than Von Miller and the Broncos’ pass-rush
Just how fast can Brady get the ball off? And just how fast can Miller get to Brady? The answer to these two questions may determine the outcome of the game.
Miller says he can get to Brady in one second. Offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo probably disagrees.
Miller’s realistic goal will be to beat Brady’s 2-second drop back speed, which is fueling the Patriots’ offensive attack. And with Julian Edelman back in the mix against the Chiefs, Brady looked as dominant as he did in the first 10 weeks of the regular season. If the Patriots’ offensive line — particularly the interior linemen, who gave up two sacks to Miller in Week 12 — can give Brady the necessary time to throw, the Patriots will find the end zone early and often.
2. Patriots’ secondary should bang up Demaryius Thomas to prevent him from finding a rhythm
With Thomas, one drop might lead to another.
He’s tied for fifth in the league with nine drops, according to SportingCharts.com. Last week, he got off to slow start, catching two of his six targets for 25 yards. If the Patriots can get physical with Thomas off the line and challenge him at the point of the catch, they will limit the Broncos wideout impact on the game.
And considering how the Patriots have struggled to defend big-bodied receivers like Thomas (see: Jets’ Brandon Marshall, Titans’ Dorial Green-Beckham), they will need all the help they can get. The otherwise fantastic receiver, Thomas, has shown a weakness, and the Patriots should exploit it for a long as they can.
3. James White must get targets in the passing game
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Broncos couldn’t keep track of Brandon Bolden in the passing game, as the running back finished with four catches for 84 yards, much of which came on a 63-yard touchdown catch.
But imagine the damage White can do.
Since that game, Bolden has faded from prominence in the offense and has averaged 23 yards from scrimmage. Conversely, White has found a niche in the passing game, averaging 63 passing yards per game since the Broncos matchup.
White’s ability to work as a receiver out of the backfield could be paramount in alleviating pressure from the Broncos. And with his quickness, he should generate yards after the catch against linebacker coverage.
4. The Patriots front-seven must prevent C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman from getting into the second level
Big running plays could kill the Patriots. If the Broncos win this game, they’ll do it by possessing the ball and forcing turnovers. A shootout is unlikely.
So if the Broncos running backs can get through the Patriots’ front-seven, they can take control of the clock. The Patriots’ run defense should respond by staying disciplined to the scheme, shedding Denver’s offensive linemen, and gang tackling the backs.
Hillman was a big-play runner early in the season, but Anderson been consistent, averaging 8.4 yards per carry in the last five weeks. And he had little issue running against the Patriots when he racked up 113 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was 48-yard game-winner in overtime. Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins will need to force an inefficient Denver run offense.
5. Put Peyton Manning’s arm to work
Every game, when Manning throws his first incompletion, Twitter timelines populate with “noodle arm’’ jokes — lots of them. And they’re not unfounded.
The farther the Patriots can force Peyton Manning to throw the ball, the better. Oddly, Manning’s weak arm works reasonably well against the Patriots defense, which gives opposing offenses some liberty in the short passing game for the sake of preventing the big play. Once the opponents hit the red zone, the Patriots tighten up, forcing teams to settle for field goals. There’s no reason to abandon that bend-don’t-break scheme, but the Patriots may also challenge Manning’s arm in the deep game.
He’s been safe with the football in the last game and a half, but there may be moments where he looks like he did in the first 10 games of the season, when he threw 17 interceptions. A deep ball from Manning could mean an interception opportunity for Devin McCourty.
Every matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning
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