5 keys for a Patriots win over the Chiefs
COMMENTARY
When Tom Brady and the Patriots offense take the field against the Chiefs defense Saturday, New England will want affirmation that the last six games have been a mirage. The 2-4 skid put a question mark on an otherwise successful regular season. But the overwhelming hope is that it was just that, a skid, and that a three-game winning streak and another Super Bowl victory are still possible.
Julian Edelman and Sebastian Vollmer are expected to return from injury, which should solve some, or most, of the Patriots’ offensive issues. Dont’a Hightower is expected to return from a knee injury, which should solve some, or most, of the Patriots’ run defense issues. And perhaps, Rob Gronkowski’s productivity will skyrocket with a more aggressive Patriots gameplan.
But the Chiefs, riding an 11-game winning streak, have all the tools to ensure the Patriots’ season finishes on its current dysfunctional track.
Here are the five keys for a Patriots win over the Chiefs.
1. Slow down Tamba Hali and Justin Houston with screen plays
The Chiefs defensive front-seven is loaded. With so much talent on the defensive line — especially the athletic, behemoth, Dontari Poe — the Chiefs don’t need to send extra blitzers to generate pressure. When they send their linebackers Hali, Houston, or both, they are sending two of the best pass-rushing backers in the league.
“They mix it up, they time up their blitzes and disguise well, so they do a good job,’’ Patriots head coach Belichick said in Thursday’s press conference.
And the Patriots will have to find ways to slow down the rush, which seems primed to blow past the Patriots leaky offensive line. Using screen passes (which are designed to let defensive linemen blow past the offensive line) to wideouts and running backs, the Patriots can get James White, Danny Amendola, and Edelman involved, while forcing the pass-rush to respect a diversified passing game.
The faster Brady can get the ball out against the Chiefs, the better.
2. Julian Edelman needs to attract attention in the redzone and on third downs
Julian Edelman may not even need to be productive to make an impact.
So long as Edelman commands the respect of the Chiefs defense for the game’s entirety, the receiver will improve the Patriots offense in the redzone and on third downs. He’ll likely be productive, but, at the very least, he needs to be a believable decoy.
Edelman had seven touchdowns in his nine games in 2015. Since Edelman’s foot injury, Brady went from throwing 2.6 touchdowns per game to 1.7. Edelman’s broken foot essentially ended Brady’s MVP campaign. And via ESPN.com, the Patriots offense has converted 50 percent of its third downs with Edelman on the field, a figure that drops to 33 percent when Edelman is not on the field. That kind of impact demands respect and attention from the defense.
Even if he goes catchless, Edelman’s presence should open up the offense for Gronk, Amendola, and White.
3. Prevent Alex Smith from being a game manager
The title, “game manager,’’ is something of a misnomer. In a simplistic sense, Brady is a game manager — he controls the outcome of games by managing them. That’s a sign of an outstanding quarterback.
“That’s the first thing I would ask of our guys here,’’ Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels told CSNNE this week when asked about being a game manager. “And I don’t know how it’s taken nationally or publicly, but look a quarterback’s job first and foremost is to run the offense.’’
Smith’s ability to manage games should be threatening to the Patriots. He’s a smart decision-maker, trusts his defense, and knows when and how to make big plays (often with his legs). The Patriots often capitalize on turnovers, and limit scoring by having an excellent redzone defense. In their last three games, Smith has managed the Chiefs into the endzone on 75 percent of his redzone trips, according to teamrankings.com.
If the Patriots force Smith to get out of control by preventing him from scrambling, disguising blitzes, and disrupting his passing rhythm, they’ll stunt the Chiefs’ offensive production.
4. Think of Travis Kelce as Gronk
The Patriots defense has experience defending a tight end like Kelce — they do it every day in practice against Gronk. Kelce has similar ability with the ball in his hands. As Belichick puts it, “[Kelce] avoids guys, he runs over them.’’
Sound familiar?
The Chiefs use Kelce in every way a team can use a pass-catcher. He’s active in the screen game, with crossing routes, down the seam of the field, among other uses. He lines up as an in-line blocker, a slot receiver, and a wideout. The only way to disrupt him is to get physical with him off the line and, likely, to double cover him with a cornerback and safety.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the scout team quarterback emulating Smith. Gronk has been something of a scout team tight end preparing the defense for Kelce.
5. Stop chucking it deep
There’s no longer an excuse. The Patriots are stocked with pass-catchers, who will allow the offense to return to its short, quick passing attack. Brady can get back to using his encyclopedic knowledge of defenses to chip away at the Chiefs.
The long passes to single-covered receivers are unproductive — and arguably were unnecessary even when Edelman and others were out with injury. Brady can and should get back to what he does best. And now that the band is back together, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t.
Where the Patriots called home before Gillette
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