Who should the Patriots want to play next: Bengals, Chiefs or Texans?
COMMENTARY
The New England Patriots needed a bye week ahead of their opening playoff game this year more than ever. As Julian Edelman, Sebastian Vollmer and Dont’a Hightower can attest, the Patriots will be battling one difficult opponent even without a game on the schedule during the NFL’s Wild Card weekend: the injury bug.
Whether or not they are able to get fully healthy, the bye week gives the Patriots a little extra time to scout their potential opponents for the divisional round. The Patriots would face a tough matchup against any of the three teams that might advance to face them at Gillette Stadium on Jan. 16.
But if they got to choose one, which should it be?
Here’s a brief, completely subjective ranking of the Patriots’ potential divisional round opponents, from most imposing to most desirable.
3. Cincinnati Bengals: Of the three teams the Patriots could face in the divisional round, the Bengals are definitely the most talented. They have the skill position players capable of giving the Patriots fits, notably wide receivers A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, tight end Tyler Eifert, and running backs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill.
But for all those skill players, the Bengals’ offensive line might be their greatest weapon. Quarterbacks Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron have been under pressure a combined 31 percent of the time, which helped Cincinnati’s offensive line rank fifth in pass-blocking efficiency, according to stats and analytics website Pro Football Focus.
The Bengals’ defense has been stout against both the run and the pass. Between Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson, the Bengals have enough talent on the defensive line to find holes in the Patriots’ swiss cheese pass protection.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: The sight of those red helmets alone might be enough to give Patriots fans an unwelcome flashback to Week 4 of the 2014 season.
This Chiefs teams is very similar to the one that thrashed the Patriots down in Kansas City on Monday Night Football last year. Even without injured running back Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs still boast a top-10 rushing attack thanks to Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. After a 1-5 start, they won 10 straight games to reach the playoffs.
The Chiefs’ formula on offense remains the same: Quarterback Alex Smith manages the game, the running game stays efficient, and the defense does the rest. The Chiefs finished third in scoring defense and in the top 10 against both the run and the pass this season. Pass-rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have the potential to take over a game, especially against the Patriots’ offensive line.
1. Houston Texans: Aside from the fact that the Patriots already beat them down in the Lone Star State earlier this year (without Edelman or Hightower), the Texans pose the lowest threat to the Patriots’ Super Bowl ambitions. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been a nightmare for opposing defensive backs this year, with 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he had just three catches for 52 yards against the Patriots in Week 14.
Bill Belichick knows better than almost anyone what Brian Hoyer is (and isn’t) capable of at quarterback. The former Patriots undrafted free-agent has been a competent game manager at times, but that’s been his ceiling this year — and he failed to hit that ceiling against the Patriots (11-of-22 for 155 yards).
Houston is the home of the best defensive player in the playoffs, but even defensive end J.J. Watt wreaking havoc against the Patriots’ offensive line isn’t enough to hold them back. Watt was the NFL’s fifth-best 3-4 end against the run and the best at rushing the passer, according to Pro Football Focus. But he had one of his worst games against the Patriots (while dealing with a broken hand) when he got pressure just one time against Tom Brady.
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