5 burning NFL questions entering Wild Card weekend
COMMENTARY
Finally, the NFL playoffs are almost here.
Who should Patriots fans root for this weekend and does Peyton Manning truly give the Broncos their best chance to advance? In the NFC, are the one-loss Panthers actually the favorite?
We’ll explore these topics and more in this week’s five burning NFL questions.
1. Who should the Patriots hope to play in the divisional round?
Well, as we know, there are only three options: the Bengals, Chiefs, or Texans. Like the Pats, all three are flawed. There rarely is such thing as a perfect team this time of the year.
Cincinnati (12-4) is stout on defense (second in NFL, allowing 17.4 points per game), but still isn’t even sure which of its quarterbacks will lead its balanced offense against Pittsburgh this weekend. Normal first-stringer Andy Dalton had the cast removed from his passing hand on Monday, but backup AJ McCarron is currently the man the Bengals are banking on in the Wild Card round. Both of McCarron’s interceptions this year came against the Steelers, and he’s started a mere three career games. Even Tom Brady had more NFL experience before winning a playoff game. Adding to the uncertainty, stud tight end Tyler Eifert only just returned from his concussion.
Kansas City (11-5) reeled off an impressive 10 straight wins following a 1-5 start, but only two of those victories — versus Pittsburgh (with Landry Jones at quarterback) and at Denver (the famous Peyton Manning benching game) — came against playoff teams. The Chiefs rarely turn the ball over (plus-16 turnover differential during their winning streak). Even benefitting from a strong year from quarterback Alex Smith, the Chiefs rely on defensive pressure (fourth in NFL with 47 sacks) and an elite secondary (league-highs of 22 interceptions and 111 pass deflections) to carry them to wins. They’re just behind the Bengals, allowing 17.9 points per game on average.
Houston (9-7) held off a remarkably damaged Indianapolis team to win the AFC South, thanks to an inconsistent defense that got hot in time for a playoff push. The Texans allowed an average of 12.7 points the last nine weeks of the regular season. Still, the Texans’ quarterback is Brian Hoyer, a former Brady backup who the Patriots overwhelmed in a 27-6 win in Week 14. Bill Belichick has shown he can take key players out of games, whether that’s Hoyer, DeAndre Hopkins (52 yards on three catches in their last meeting) or Defensive Player of the Year favorite J.J. Watt.
What do all of these potential Patriots opponents have in common? Strong defense. If the Pats are in fact reasonably healthy on offense come Jan. 16 — I’m talking about being able to normally deploy Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Sebastian Vollmer, along with obviously Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski — it shouldn’t much matter who they host. That version of the Patriots’ offense can overcome these defenses and New England’s own defense is more than equipped to handle those opposing offenses. But, if the New England attack or Brady’s protection looks as it has the last two weeks in particular, there may not be much hope for a trip to Santa Clara this February.
2. Should Peyton Manning start for Denver?
The Broncos announced Thursday morning that Peyton Manning will start their divisional round game on Jan. 17. The veteran replaced Brock Osweiler in the third quarter of last Sunday’s 27-20 comeback win over Chargers. With the Broncos trailing 13-7 and the offense having already turned the ball over five times, head coach Gary Kubiak turned to Manning. The change came after a weeks-long run of watching the offense sputter with the first-year starter calling the shots.
So is this the right call?
On the one hand, you’ve got a vet with tons of playoff experience in Manning — of course, it’s experience that does include a staggering nine one-and-out appearances in 14 trips to the postseason — and unquestionably a mental edge over his understudy. Manning knows what’s required in the games ahead and knows the postseason atmosphere. On the other hand, Manning was largely terrible this year (a league-worst 67.9 passer rating and 17 interceptions to just 9 touchdowns in 10 games), with injuries playing some role in those performances. He did little more than hand off the ball (5-of-9 passing for 69 yards and 0 TD’s) when he entered that regular season finale for Osweiler. The difference, as Manning noted, was that Denver stopped turning the ball over when he came in.
Ultimately, the Broncos need to protect the football — whether that happens with the 39-year-old Manning or Osweiler on the field — and hope their star-studded defense can do what it’s been doing all year. While there’s plenty of mileage on Manning’s shoulder, he’s as rested as he’s ever been at this time of the year and will also have wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to lean on.
The quarterback quandry is a lose-lose situation for Kubiak, bound to bring second-guessing if the Broncos fall immediately. But Manning represents their best chance to win, provided his brain is more valuable than Osweiler’s talent.
3. Will the Bengals finally win a playoff game under Marvin Lewis?
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati since 2003. His teams have won exactly zero playoff games in six previous tries, including defeats in each of the last four years. The organization hasn’t won a postseason contest in 25 years, the sixth-longest drought in league history. To potentially reach the Patriots in the divisional round, that will obviously have to change.
The last quarterback to win a playoff game with as little starting experience as AJ McCarron, provided he’s the man under center for Cincinnati, was Gifford Nielsen with the Houston Oilers in 1979. Granted, McCarron was a two-time national champion at Alabama and he’s got a phenomenal defense to take some of the pressure off his shoulders. He’s 2-1 in Andy Dalton’s absence.
The Bengals will host a Steelers team they split with during the regular season, including a 33-20 home loss in their last showdown in Week 14. Pittsburgh’s mostly healthy and won six of its last eight games by an average score of roughly 32-22. Two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger (NFL-leading 328 passing yards a game) and All-Pro Antonio Brown (tied for first with 136 catches and second with 1,834 yards) have both caught fire since Week 9. Only the Steelers’ running game is limited with DeAngelo Williams nursing a sprained right ankle and Le’Veon Bell out for the year with a knee injury.
For my money, Lewis’s unfortunate trend continues.
4. Who’s the most dangerous team in the NFC?
I’ve spent time in recent weeks dissecting the Seahawks, fawning over Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, praising the fact Carolina lost a game, and marveling at the Cardinals, so I won’t do all of that again here.
The Cardinals (13-3) are the most well-rounded team in the NFL right now and they have its best offense. Coming out of the same division, the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks (10-6) are the top defensive team in the league once again and obviously know how to win in January. In addition to having the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Panthers (15-1) have the NFL MVP and a top-tier offense that lives and dies by its dual-threat quarterback. The Packers (10-6) also have one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers. The NFC North champion Vikings have shown they can play in prime time — at least this season. When it comes to the Redskins … well, someone had to win the NFC East. All due respect to the emerging Kirk Cousins.
Entering the playoffs, each team faces its own issues: The Cards struggle on the offensive line (sound familiar?); the ‘Hawks are in line to play multiple early games (relative to their home-field West Coast time) in Minnesota and perhaps Carolina; the Panthers are banged up; the Packers are hurt up front on offense and wildly inconsistent; the Teddy Bridgewater-led Vikings’ offense isn’t nearly as impressive as their defense; and Washington has flaws on both sides of the ball and zero wins over teams who finished above .500 all year.
I’m still betting on Arizona to finish its season in Santa Clara.
5. Does late-season momentum actually matter entering the playoffs?
It goes without saying that any team would prefer to be hot closing out the regular season, but it hasn’t mattered much recently.
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With the exception of the Steelers in 2005 (who won four straight to conclude the regular season) and Pittsburgh’s 2008 edition (who went 6-1 down the stretch), the last decade of NFL champions were barely .500 or worse in their final push for the postseason. Despite late-season struggles, each and every one of those teams now owns a Lombardi Trophy.
I asked Bill Belichick during his Tuesday conference call whether he puts any stock in late-season momentum entering the postseason. I received the answer I expected.
“I don’t really care about any other season or any other game, just the one that’s coming up,’’ he said. “That’s the only one we’re focused on. I don’t really care what happened any other [time]. It’s pretty irrelevant to me.’’
Zeroing in on the Pats, they’ve gone 2-4 and averaged about 9 points per game fewer during that stretch than during their 10-0 start. That recent run also marks the first time New England has lost four of six in a season since Tom Brady’s first full year under-center in 2002. Injuries aren’t an excuse, but they’ve played a big part. With Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Sebastian Vollmer, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Rob Ninkovich and others all projected to be back on the field and healthier than they’ve been in a while come the divisional round, it’s important to remember the Patriots team we’ve seen of late may not remotely represent what they’re capable of over the next month.
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