Unconventional Preview: Patriots won’t get a break against Dolphins, but they’ll get what they need
Patriots Tom Brady conferring with teammate Rob Gronkowski on a 4th down against the Jets during fourth quarter action at MetLife Stadium.
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 4, Episode 16 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, occasionally nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend.
Ideally, the Patriots would have locked up the top seed in the AFC last weekend against the Jets, allowing Bill Belichick to judiciously utilize what’s left of the battered varsity against the Dolphins and give Jimmy Garoppolo and his underclassman buddies some reps. Didn’t happen that way, obviously, with the Patriots falling in overtime to a decent and healthy Jets team in Week 16, and so there will be no rest, at least early in the game, for Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and the rest of the rightfully weary. The regular-season finale in Miami matters. The Patriots have had a first-round bye secured since beating the Titans in Week 14, but locking up the AFC’s top spot is a task yet to be completed. Denver — presuming the Broncos earn the second first-round bye, rather than the Bengals — is lovely this time of year for vacationers, but it’s not especially friendly for visiting football teams, as the Patriots found out in January 2014. Best to have all challengers to the throne come to Foxborough.
Kick it off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started …
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
Steven Jackson: I guess I set my expectations low, because Jackson ran for just 15 yards on 7 carries in his Patriots debut, and I came away from it relatively encouraged. Yeah, that 2.1 yards per carry was rather ’94 Marion Butts-ian of him, but he did seem to hit the hole on his latter carries more decisively and with more of a burst than LeGarrette Blount did at times this year. It would make sense that Jackson gets more carries Sunday, maybe even doubling his workload, so the Patriots can get a sense for how much he can help in the postseason. It’s not an easy thing he’s trying to do, coming off a season-long absence at age 32 and trying to get up to full speed in just a couple of weeks. But he’s an accomplished player who has long been lauded for his professionalism, and he already has a good feel for the offense, having played for Josh McDaniels in St. Louis. If you do have to ask someone to pull it off, Jackson is a reasonable bet.
Jabaal Sheard: I’m not up on Pro Football Focus’s methodology for its various statistics, and to be honest, when Bill Belichick indicates that he’s checked out some of the analytic sites and found that their conclusions don’t often jibe with the Patriots’ internal findings, my skepticism grows. But that doesn’t mean their findings should be ignored by any means — the more information you have, the easier it becomes to discern the truth, and then the inaccurate stuff becomes obvious and you can disregard it. I bring this up because I saw this comment on Pro Football Focus’s twitter feed a few days ago …
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… and while I’m not precisely sure of the context and value of that data, it does support what the eye test is telling us. Sheard is playing very, very well. I’ll spare you the obvious Willie McGinest comparative soliloquy again, and instead keep it to this: McGinest made a habit of playing his best in big games. It would be help immensely if Sheard could do the same on Sunday. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked six times last week, and the Patriots’ second-place standing in the league sack totals (48) doesn’t bode well for him. However, Chandler Jones, who is fifth in the league in sacks (12.5), is out Sunday with toe and abdomen injuries, as is the all-around excellent linebacker Dont’a Hightower. Another big game from Sheard, who has eight sacks and four forced fumbles in 12 games, could make a huge difference — and presumably, also keep his “edge defender grade’’ soaring.
Gronk: In the spirit of the New Year, allow me to offer a toast in advance to Gronk’s performance Sunday: Here’s to his two touchdown pass receptions in the first quarter, which will give the Patriots an insurmountable lead and allow him to tie the commendable Stanley Morgan for the most TD receptions in franchise history (66). Here’s to not a single hold-your-breath moment as some desperate Dolphins defensive back aims his Riddell at Gronk’s kneecap. And here’s to Gronk sitting next to an amused Brady on the bench for the entire fourth quarter while explaining how he knows Einstein’s theory of relativity is totally true, bro, because he has lots of relatives of his own, like Gordy Jr. for one.
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
The goal every year around here is to leave all small grievances behind and start the year with a clean slate. What tends to happen, as you might expect, is that new grievances inevitably slither into the void … and some carry over as well. I’m an optimist and I know that one of these years everyone will see everything the right way — the way I do! — but I’m not banking on it being this new year. Apparently, the nonsense about Bill Belichick making some kind of Mornhinweg-style mistake in overtime against the Jets survived New Year’s Eve and has lingered during the lead-up to Sunday’s game. I simply do not understand how anyone can see that as a blunder without looking at it totally from hindsight and with an utter lack of awareness regarding the condition of his football team at this point in time. What he wanted to do was smart: He put his faith in his defense, which had limited the Jets to 31 fourth-quarter yards, sending it out there with the full belief that the unit could get Ryan Fitzpatrick-Montana off the field. That is a far more logical thought, even with the small risk that Ryan Fitzpatrick-Elway would lead the Jets on a scoring drive, than expecting a depleted Patriots offense with a quarterback who had been getting hammered late in the game, to march down the field and score a touchdown of its own. Stop the Jets, get a short field, send out your superstar kicker to boot a field goal and get the hell out of there. It was the unconventional decision. It is unusual that the unit led by Tom Brady isn’t the Patriots’ most reliable personnel group at the time. But that’s how it was. It was a good decision that did not work, and for someone to suggest Belichick screwed up that situation by trusting his defense against Ryan Fitzpatrick-Unitas is the absolute pinnacle of hubris.
PREDICTION, OR JUST GET OUT OF MIAMI WITH EVERYTHING YOU NEED
How funny would it be if this one goes to overtime, Belichick lets the Dolphins have the ball first, and the Pats win anyway? OK, maybe some people who think they’ve earned their coaching certification from watching from the couch most Sundays wouldn’t find a chuckle in it, but I would. I actually do think this will be a tough game. The Patriots are again playing shorthanded, and we won’t know the status of the likes of Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Danny Amendola until Sunday. Miami does have plenty of talent, especially on offense (I’d love to see how McDaniels would use someone with Jarvis Landry’s skill-set). The best hope is that they get out of Miami with the top seed secured and no more players in need of a postgame X-ray. It’ll be tense, and Brady and Gronk will have to go the distance, but that’s not too much to ask.
Patriots 23, Dolphins 17
Chad Finn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeChadFinn.
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