Patriots-Jets prediction roundup: Should Bill Belichick prioritize home-field advantage? Health? Both?
COMMENTARY
What is home-field advantage ultimately worth?
If the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets on Sunday in the Meadowlands, they lock up the No. 1 AFC seed in the postseason, which means they wouldn’t need to travel anywhere until a possible trip to Santa Clara, Calif., in early February.
But how badly does head coach Bill Belichick really want it?
Perhaps a more apt question is how badly does he really need it?
As the Boston Herald’s Ron Borges pointed out earlier this week, 36 percent of the AFC champions over the past 25 years have been visiting teams in the title game. The takeaway from this statistic, of course, is that at that stage the field is even enough — for the most part (Hello, 2014 Colts) — that the location of the game is not of primary importance. The 2001 Patriots won at Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. The 2012 Baltimore Ravens came to Foxborough and knocked off the Patriots.
This year, there is also the very real possibility that even as the No. 2 seed, the Patriots won’t have to travel anywhere for the AFC title game. The Cincinnati Bengals’ struggles in the postseason over the past decade are well documented, and a team with an injured Andy Dalton could be primed for another disappointment next month. The Denver Broncos have been an inconsistent group, that doesn’t know what kind of quarterback play it’s going to get quarter to quarter from, Brock Osweiler, never mind game to game.
Would it really susprise anyone if the Patriots are hosting the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game?
The risk the Patriots would take by not securing the top AFC seed is a trip to Denver, but perhaps worth it at full health. Whatever.
That all being said, there’s little chance that the Pats don’t wrap up the No. 1 seed. It just might have to wait until Miami.
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for Sunday’s Patriots-Jets game:
ESPN.com: Ten out of 13 pick the Patriots.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Jets 25, Patriots 22. “AAAWWWK!’’ carols the Upset Bird. “Merry Christmaawwk! New York Jaawwk!’’ A deliciously bitter rivalry of genuine dislike finds the Jets needing a victory here more. Patriots already have clinched a first-round bye and must win one of last two games to secure No. 1 playoff seed, while NYJ must win out and hope Pittsburgh or Kansas City lose a game to reach the postseason. (Dolfans should hope NE wins here so Tom Brady might sit out vs.Miami next week). Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-7 vs. Pats with 17 interceptions but is surrounded now buy a hot team that has won four straight. ’’Yes,’’ concurs U-Bird, tipping a spiked egg nog. “Fitzpatraawwk!’’
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Jets 20. “The Jets are still in the playoff hunt, but the Patriots need this to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Jets have been good on offense lately, but they won’t be able to keep up with Tom Brady and the gang here. The Patriots get the top seed.’’
CBS Sports staff: Five out of eight pick New England (Jets +3.5). Seven out of eight pick the Patriots straight up.
Foxsports.com staff: Four out of seven pick the Patriots.
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots with a 68 percent chance of winning.
SB Nation staff: Split down the middle.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 24, Jets 22. “The Patriots are trying to clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, which they can do with a win. The Jets’ best hope might be to pound Chris Ivory, who will be facing a Dont’a Hightower-less defense (or at least a defense with a hampered Hightower). The Broncos’ rushing numbers shot through the roof in Week 12 when Hightower had to leave early with an injury. Getting Ivory going could open big plays to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, who continue to make everyone question whether this is really the Jets’ offense they’re watching.
In case you were wondering, New England has now won at least 12 games for six consecutive seasons. In this day and age of parity ball — Paul Tagliabue’s vision of the NFL in the aughts — that’s a remarkable stat. Well, on Sunday, Stephen Gostkowski hits from 53 yards out to provide New England with a 13th regular-season win for the first time since 2011.’’
Jimmy Kempski, Philly Voice: Patriots. “Per sources close to the Patriots, Darth Hoodie was furious that his scenes were cut out of the new Star Wars movie, so he intends to ramp up his cheating and take his frustrations out on the Jets this week.’’
USA Today staff: Four out of seven pick the Pats.
Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 34, Jets 20. “To ensure they won’t have to risk a repeat of the 2010 divisional round in the 2015 postseason, the Patriots should do all they can to knock the Jets out of the playoffs now.’’
Michael David Smith: ProFootballTalk: Patriots 21, Jets 17. “If the Jets can pull the upset, it turns the whole AFC playoff race on its ear. But I think the Patriots will win, and take a lot of the drama out of the playoff picture.’’
Neil Greenberg, The Washington Post: Patriots, 65.7 percent. “The Patriots have had their share of injuries, but they still rank third in net yards per drive (6.23).’’
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Jets. “It’s a potentially dumb pick, but the Jets are playing for a playoff spot, and the Patriots seem to be running on fumes.’’
The Boston Globe staff: Four out of five pick the Jets (New England -3).
It says here: Jets 23, Patriots 20. The Jets are desperate. The Patriots are not.
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