Five burning NFL questions entering Week 16
COMMENTARY
Two weeks to go in the NFL’s regular season, and playoff positions are coming into focus. The Patriots offense is among the best in the league, but will their defense be their defining trait come the postseason? Will the Broncos be there to challenge them? And is a rematch with the Seahawks inevitable?
We’ll explore those topics and more as we examine five burning questions from around the NFL entering Week 16.
1. Is this the best Patriots defense since their early Super Bowl teams?
Remember last season, when we all went on and on about the Patriots defense, led by a shutdown secondary? That pass-defense, while obviously elite in talent, allowed 239.8 yards a game to rank 17th. The group as a whole was 13th in total yards allowed (344.1 yards per game), 9th in rush-D (104.3 yards), and 8th in scoring defense (19.6 points).
This year, New England is better across the board. Through 14 games, the Pats are giving up 19.2 points (T-6th), 326.1 yards (6th), 230.3 passing yards (8th), and 95.8 rushing yards (10th).
We all recall Bill Belichick The GM’s controversial decision to cut ties with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to hand the reins over to Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan – a decision that has worked out beyond comprehension to this point.
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Much of the success is also due to the collaborative secondary unit, not just the cornerbacks.
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But loading up in the trenches has perhaps been the difference.
The Patriots have 47 sacks – led by Chandler Jones’ 12.5, which ranks him fourth in the NFL – already seven more than last year’s total. During Sunday’s dismantling of the Titans, they had five sacks and forced three turnovers. That came one week after a six-sack performance against the Texans. All the more impressive, they’ve done it as Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Dont’a Hightower, and Dominique Easley have each missed at least three games.
As noted by ESPN’s Mike Reiss, New England’s defensive pressure and aggressiveness, along with their depth, physicality, versatility, and talent, harkens back to the days of a 2003 front seven that featured Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Roman Phifer, Ted Washington, and Bobby Hamilton.
Those 2003 and 2004 teams were loaded from the inside-out, and the formula is working again this season. Even if some of the names aren’t as glamorous.
2. Should we already hand the MVP award to Cam Newton?
All due respect to Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson, but Cam Newton is the runaway MVP this year. As far as I’m concerned, he has been for weeks.
Look at what Newton’s doing with that cast in Carolina. The 14-0 Panthers lead the NFL with 32.1 points a game, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in 12 straight games with Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn Jr. as Newton’s primary targets, neither of whom would be a top option for Brady. They’re the only guys with at least 410 receiving yards. Star wideout Kelvin Benjamin would only bolster that attack, but he’s been on the sidelines with an ACL injury the entire season.
Whether it was Newton’s key performances late in shootout road wins at the Saints and Giants, or an utter dismantling of the Falcons, the multi-threat QB is just getting better as the season rolls along.
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Newton’s up to 3,982 yards and 40 touchdowns overall this season. He’s now 17-3 in his career in December, with 41 passing touchdowns and another nine on the ground. Just etch his name on the trophy already.
3. Will the Broncos MISS the playoffs?
After a 7-0 start, the Broncos are reeling with wins in just three of their last seven. Over the last two weeks, Denver’s blown double-digit halftime leads to Oakland and Pittsburgh and, maybe worse, hasn’t even been competitive in the second half. In those two latter halves combined against bad defenses, the Broncos have just 162 yards and three turnovers, and Brock Osweiler – now dealing with a left shoulder injury – has been sacked six times and compiled a 44.7 QB rating.
It’s atrocious.
Now at 10-4, the surging Chiefs are sneaking up on them with two games to play. Kansas City’s 9-5 after eight straight wins and holds the AFC West tiebreaker should the clubs finish with the same mark. Moreover, the Broncos’ remaining path is more difficult with two home games against the Bengals – who are still fighting for home-field throughout the AFC playoffs – and the hapless Chargers. The Chiefs host the Browns and Raiders, teams with nine collective wins.
If the Broncos lose out while the Chiefs sweep, not only would they fail to win the West, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs. Unlikely, but plausible. If I’m a betting man, we haven’t seen the last of Peyton Manning this season, for better or worse.
4. How many playoff teams will feature a star quarterback?
It is most definitely the year of the back-up. With two weeks left in the regular season, 18 NFL teams (the Bills, Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Lions, Colts, Saints, Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Niners, Rams, Titans, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Texans, and Steelers) have featured at least two quarterbacks, while those last five clubs have used as many as three or four men under center this season.
For good reason, most playoff-bound squads will feature the starting quarterbacks with whom they opened the season, but there are exceptions already.
In the AFC, the Patriots have Tom Brady and the Chiefs and Steelers, should they qualify, have Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively. The Bengals, though, are looking at a future with Alabama’s AJ McCarron if Andy Dalton doesn’t return from his thumb injury and the Broncos, for the moment, are still relying on Brock Osweiler. The Texans, provided they hold onto the South, are tragically down to Brandon Weeden. Should they fail, the Colts counter with Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst. Rough.
The NFC, of course, is more glamorous as things stand, with names like Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Tedy Bridgewater, plus Kirk Cousins.
But that AFC race to Santa Clara would be a lot more intriguing with Dalton, Peyton Manning (the 2014 and earlier version, anyhow), and his Indy replacement, Andrew Luck.
5. How scary are the Seahawks?
The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks are soaring after clinching their fourth straight playoff berth as a wild card entrant.
It’s 2014 all over again. Seattle started 2-4 and people wondered if Pete Carroll’s club could recover in the same way it rebounded from last year’s 3-3 start. The ‘Hawks have won five straight by an average of 20.4 points and seven of their last eight to climb to 9-4. No further questions.
Russell Wilson is absolutely torching opponents during this stretch, completing at least 70 percent of his passes each time out for a 74.3 (110-of-148) cumulative mark. Even more impressive…
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Carroll said the offense has never been better during his time in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defense is permitting just 13.8 points a game the last five weeks to jump to second in the NFL at 17.7.
Watch out. Again.
Players who have played for Patriots and Jets
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