Unconventional Preview: Patriots will pummel Redskins, but let’s not talk about perfection just yet
Patriots running back Dion Lewis warms up with tight end Rob Gronkowski.
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 4, Episode 8 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, occasionally nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend.
The 7-0 Patriots have had plenty of time to prepare for Sunday’s opponent: the 3-4 Redskins. They haven’t played since their systematic 36-7 thumping of the Dolphins last Thursday night. That extra preparation time doesn’t bode well for the Redskins, who apparently have no plans to heed this tongue-in-cheek (I think) advice and use this week as a chance to rest their starters. But they may come into the matchup with heightened confidence after a come-from-behind 31-30 win over the Bucs last week, which if nothing else led to an instant-classic meme from quarterback Kirk Cousins:
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Yeah, we liked that.
Unfortunately for the Redskins, the Patriots should also like their 18th-ranked pass defense and and 23rd-ranked run defense.
The Patriots are averaging an NFL-best 35.9 points per game. The Redskins are allowing 24 points per game, the 17th-most in the league.
Both averages will be higher after Sunday’s game is complete.
Kick if off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started …
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
LeGarrette Blount: It’s not that the Patriots’ agitated bull of a running back is having a bad season: He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which is better than fine, especially for a runner who isn’t perceived as a breakaway threat. It’s that the Patriots have limited his usage and workload: He hasn’t had more than 18 carries in a game (Week 3, Jacksonville), and he’s still searching for his first 100-yard rushing performance (his high is 93 yards at Indianapolis in Week 6, a game in which many of us figured he’d be closer to 293 yards). The Patriots have an extraordinarily well-rounded attack, one capable of beating an opponent in virtually any way. Presuming Brady’s throwing arm stakes the Patriots to a sizable lead, this could be the week Blount reminds us that he’s an important part of the offense. Put him down for his first 100-yard game of the season.
DeSean Jackson: Jackson, one of the league’s most accomplished deep threats, makes his season debut Sunday. He’s returning from a hamstring injury suffered in the preseason, which may limit his ability to make those Stanley Morgan-type plays as he presumably eases his way back into action. (It is an obligation around here to mention Morgan, the unheralded Patriots great, whenever citing the feats of other deep-threats. Good rule, I say.) Still, the temptation will be there for Cousins to utilize and even rely upon Jackson, the most skilled and dangerous player on the Redskins offense, who averaged 20.9 yards per catch last season while accumulating 1,169 receiving yards. Stopping Jackson when the Redskins do take their shots will be a decent test for Malcolm Butler (who is due for an interception or two) and Logan Ryan.
Gronk: We could easily come with, oh, 87 stats or so to laud the transcendent greatness of Gronk. Here’s one that jumped out at me sort of randomly recently: Did you realize he’s already fourth all-time in receiving touchdowns by a tight end? He has 61, trailing only Tony Gonzalez (111), Antonio Gates (101), and Shannon Sharpe (62). That trio played, respectively, 270, 182 and 204 NFL games. Gronk has played 72 games. He has a great chance to tie and even pass Sharpe on Sunday, leaving the ex-Bronco/ex-Raven behind, just as he has done to so many other outstanding tight ends (Ben Coates, for example, had 50 career touchdown catches. Kellen Winslow collected 45. Mark Bavaro? 39.) None of us require a reminder to appreciate Gronk’s greatness. We get to watch it. But the ridiculous numbers he is putting up do help illuminate it even more.
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
I know, it’s hard to resist. I may have even mentioned the possibility a time or two myself, though I’ve tried to avoid it. But is it too much to suggest that we put a lid on all of the chatter about an unbeaten season for now? Sure, 7-0 is an exceptional start, and it will probably be an 8-0 start after Sunday. You know what 8-0 also means? The season is half over. That’s all. Half. It’s a hell of a half — the second-best the franchise has ever had, to 2007, when they did go 16-0 — but it’s a long way from unbeaten. There’s so much good stuff to talk about now, in the moment, that looking ahead and counting all the W’s to come on the schedule seems not just premature, but a deliberate lack of appreciation for the moment. Right now, I’m cool with appreciating what the Patriots are doing, week to week, Sunday to Sunday, rather than anticipating what they might do. I mean, hell, the Bengals are 8-0. If that’s not a sign that there’s a long way to go — a perfect Marvin Lewis team — I don’t know what is.
PREDICTION, OR CAN THE REDSKINS EVER AVENGE JOE GIBBS’S PAIN?
All right, there’s one comparison to 2007 that I can’t resist making and making again: the prolificacy of the respective offenses. The ’07 Pats set an NFL record with 589 points, averaging 36.8 per game. Through seven games that season, they had scored 279 points for a 39.8 average — and that was before they played the Redskins in Week 8. That game was peak-performance Patriots. Brady threw for three touchdown passes and ran for two more, and backup quarterback Matt Cassel ran for another in a 52-7 pounding of Joe Gibbs’s relatively decent team (they’d finish 9-7). This season, the Patriots have scored 249 points — 30 off their ’07 pace — so the math tells us they’ll need to drop 80 on the Redskins Sunday to pull even with their ’07 brothers. Despite Bill Belichick’s chipper mood Friday — a sign he’s feeling pretty good about the game plan, or so we perceive — an 80-pointer is probably not in the cards. A win that is accompanied by little suspense will have to do. Patriots 45, Redskins 14.
Chad Finn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeChadFinn.
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