Redskins-Patriots prediction roundup: Making heads or tails over New England’s good fortune
AP
COMMENTARY
Flipgate? Coin-troversy?
Nobody is really coming out and claiming the New England Patriots have discovered new realms of the Force in order to attain another in a long line of presumed advantages when it comes to their success rate in the game-opening coin flip. Even the wide range of conspiracy theorists convinced that Bill Belichick is “cheating’’ at every turn can’t be that delusional.
But the suggestion that the Patriots are winning the coin toss at an “impossible’’ rate is ridiculous on its own merit.
The Patriots have won 19 of their past 25 coin flips, about a 1 in 189.5 probability (or 0.5 percent chance). As Yahoo! notes, those are “worse odds even than when the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers lucked their way into the top pick in the draft, able to take Kyrie Irving.’’
OK.
Look, I’m no math genius (Mr. Catelli can confirm), but how does the success rate on what inherently carries a 50-50 proposition in any way suggestion of “impossibility?’’ To boil it down to more finite results, the Patriots have won the toss 76 percent of the time frame in question. So, losing the toss 24 percent of the time is cause for wondering if there’s some magical mumbo-jumbo taking place on the New England sideline?
A double-sided coin? Well, since the visiting team is the one which calls “heads’’ or “tails’’ in the first place, not sure how that would have much to do with the team’s dominance at Gillette Stadium. Of course, Belichick likes to defer when he wins the toss, electing to receive at the start of the second half. Except, when he loses like last Thursday against the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots only marched down the field with their first possession of the game for a 7-0 lead.
Clearly, there’s nothing here.
Or…is there?
[fragment number=0]
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for Sunday’s Redskins-Patriots game:
Neil Greenberg, Washington Post: Patriots, 77.1 percent. “The Patriots have an average lead of 7.74 points at the beginning of their offensive drives, which indicates the Redskins will be in catchup mode throughout this game.
“When Washington has trailed by eight or more points this season, they pass the ball 78.2 percent of the time. Kirk Cousins has a 89.7 passer rating in those situations with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Against the Jets, the only defense they have played comparable to New England’s, he was 9 for 17 for 75 yards and an interception when trailing for a 40.1 passer rating.
“This could get ugly.’’
ESPN.com: All Pats.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 34, Redskins 13. “Point spreads don’t get much bigger on Sundays. Washington isn’t awful and should have DeSean Jackson back for first time since season opener vs. Miami. Skins’ problems are on defense, with cornerback injuries and shaky run stoppage. This is the wrong opponent for that. Tom Brady will dissect, and NE has won 28 games in a row when topping 25 rushing attempts.’’
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 34, Redskins 16. “The Redskins are coming off a bye, but the Patriots will have had 10 days off. That evens it out. The Patriots have Tom Brady, which gives them a big edge here. Kirk Cousins has done some good things this season, but he won’t be able to keep up with Brady.’’
CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick the Patriots vs. the spread (New England by 14 1/2).
SB Nation staff: All Pats.
Foxsports.com staff: All Pats.
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 31, Redskins 20. “I’ve been writing it for weeks and have actually caught a bit of flak from readers for it, but I’m downright amazed watching the Patriots’ offensive game plan change week to week — so dramatically, too — and yet the results be so consistent, regardless. I’ve asked around, and yes, several teams with head coaching vacancies will be knocking on Josh McDaniels’ door this year. At the rate this season is going, they just may have to wait until after the Super Bowl.’’
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 42, Redskins 10. “Eight years ago, the Patriots beat Washington 52-7. This year, it could be just as bad.’’
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 38, Redskins 17. “The easiest pick on the board. The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now, and although Washington is trending upward, they’re not ready to win at New England.’’
USA Today staff: All seven members of the panel pick the Pats, four as the lock of the week.
FiveThirtyEight: New England with a 93 percent chance of winning.
MassLive staff: All Pats.
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice: Patriots. “The Redskins will be the second NFC East team to take their pummeling against the Patri*ts this season. The Giants’ beating will come next week, and the Eagles’ will come Week 13. The Patri*ts are clearly the best team in the NFL, and the undefeated watch is on once again. Plus, they cheat, which always helps.’’
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: “Please, with this line. Please. This ain’t 2007, people. Help me out here.
“The Patriots, dominant as they may be, have let some lesser teams like the Jets and Colts hand around enough to cover spreads in recent weeks. The reason I think they can pull this one off is the fact that Kirk Cousins’ home/road splits are insane.
“Cousins at home: 75 percent passing, 6 TDs, 2 INTs
“Cousins on the road: 61.3 percent passing, 3 TDs, 6 INTs
“I don’t like that, Kirk.’’
Globe staff: All Pats.
It says here: Patriots 42, Redskins 19. Twenty-one days until Denver.
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur
Photos: Signs of Deflategate
[bdc-gallery id=”145257″]
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com