5 keys for a Patriots win over the Redskins
COMMENTARY
The Redskins are trying to resolve an identity crisis against the Patriots this week. Washington coach Jay Gruden has emphasized he wants to reestablish the team’s focus on the run game, on offense and defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ identity is not having one — their amorphous gameplan makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the league. New England is 7-0, and favored to beat Washington (3-4), which travels to Foxboro for a Sunday matchup at 1 p.m.
Here are the five keys to a Patriots win over the Redskins.
1. Keep it simple with Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount
The Patriots offensive line may get reinforcements with the potential return of linemen Shaq Mason and Bryan Stork, and the run blocking should be lively. The porous Redskins have allowed 196 rushing yards per game in the last three games, and though they are making an effort to improve, the Patriots should test the Redskins run defense on their first offensive drive.
With Lewis’s speed to open the game and Blount’s power to close it, Patriots running backs should see a solid volume of touches.
2. Safeties need to control the middle of the field
Bad news: New England’s inability to acquire a cornerback at the trade deadline puts a greater burden on their safeties.
Good news: The Patriots safeties have been fantastic.
Pat Chung has been more of a coverage linebacker, racking up tackles, and Duron Harmon has been a centerfielder in coverage. Devin McCourty does it all.
The trio will work in concert to limit DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the deep-middle of the field, while stuffing runs that get past the front-seven. In the last three games, the Patriots have allowed 74.6 rush yards per game, largely because their longest runs allowed in each game have been for 25, 11, and eight yards.
Big plays will have to come outside the numbers.
3. Control the Redskins’ blitz heavy scheme
“If you’re vanilla against [Patriots], Tom will make it a long afternoon,’’ Jay Gruden said.
The Redskins already blitz an NFL eighth-most on 33.3 percent of plays, according to Pro Football Focus. And it sounds like they’ll be sending players just as often — if not more — on Sunday. Ryan Kerrigan (3.5 sacks, one pass deflection), Preston Smith (one sack, two pass deflections), and Trent Murphy (1.0 sack) comprise a talented pass rush. Kerrigan, who had a hand injury and subsequent surgery, is on track to play, according to The Washington Post.
Despite blitzing often, however, the Redskins rank 22nd in sacks with 13.
Controlling Washington’s pass rush is possible. Vanilla defenses are easy for Brady to dissect, but an ineffective five-man rush isn’t any better — particularly if Brady diagnoses the rush presnap. If the Patriots can hold up in pass protection, Brady could be looking at a AFC Player of the Week award in consecutive weeks.
4. Shut down Jordan Reed, and in turn Kirk Cousins
Behind the inflated stats of every average quarterback is a solid tight end.
Cousins has targeted Jordan Reed 47 times for 35 receptions, 350 yards, three touchdowns, and a team-best 22 first down receptions — and Reed has played only five games.
As Bill Belichick has noted many times in his pregame interviews, Cousins rarely gets sacked, as the Redskins are second-best in the league with eight sacks allowed. Still, with the time and pocket space for sound decision-making, Cousins has 1,737 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions, which puts the Redskins at 18th-best in the NFL with 241 passing yards per game.
If the Patriots take away Reed, they remove the Redskins’ best chance at getting first downs, and force Cousins to throw at a target with whom he’s less comfortable. As noted in a film study by The Boston Globe, Cousins’s inclination to put the team on his back — which could be heightened by the disappearance of Reed and an ineffective running game — tends to lead to as many turnovers as big plays.
5. Find the linebacker matchups in the passing game
Rob Gronkowski is transcendent. Dion Lewis is a revelation. But what seems to be damaging defenses most is the depth of the Patriots’ pass catchers. And in empty sets, defenses are forced to matchup linebackers on wideouts.
Julian Edelman drew coverage from linebackers for some of the game against Miami. Danny Amendola got similar treatment against Indianapolis. No team has been able to cover the combination of Gronk, Lewis, Edelman, Amendola, and Brandon LaFell in a empty formation. Or an empty formation that includes Scott Chandler… or Keshawn Martin… or Aaron Dobson. Defenses simply don’t have the personnel.
Of course, if the Redskins put too many defensive backs on the field, the Patriots will start running the ball.
No one envies defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s job this week.
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