Unconventional Preview: In short week especially, Belichick vs. Campbell is a coaching mismatch
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick watches action from the sideline.
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 4, Episode 7 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, occasionally nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend … or on the occasional Thursday.
The Patriots, who remained one of five unbeaten teams in the NFL with a hard-fought 30-23 victory over the talented and not-that-dumb-anymore-but-still-kind-of-dumb Jets last Sunday, put their 6-0 record on the line Thursday night against the Dolphins.
Miami is 3-3, but 2-0 since firing Joe Philbin, who coached and looked like a bewildered accountant who didn’t particularly understand math. He was replaced by former NFL tight end and one-time hair farmer Dan Campbell.
The Dolphins have played with more passion for Campbell, but their schedule has been dotted with — what’s the term? — tomato cans. In Campbell’s two games as interim head coach, they hammered the Titans and dysfunctional Texans by a combined score of 82-36, even taking a 41-0 lead last week against Houston.
But the Dolphins haven’t encountered anything resembling the Patriots, who are leading the NFL in points per game (35.5) and tend to systematically carve up overly aggressive defenses like Miami’s.
Kick if off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this thing started …
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY
Malcolm Butler: Yeah, he had his ups and downs against the Jets, especially early against wide receiver Eric Decker. In the end, he allowed six receptions on a dozen passes thrown his way, hardly a bad day at the office. Yet there seems to be a cacophony of caterwaulers who are taking great delight in finger-wagging Patriots fans about Butler’s occasionally uneven performance — even though he’s been just fine, and often better than fine, all season. Those people are the worst. They try to suck all of the joy out of sports, laying low and anticipating moments when they can howl, “See, I told you so!’’ I have not heard from a single fan who expects Butler to be the second coming of Darrelle Revis. I have heard from a lot of fans who love his athletic ability and confidence, and recognize that while his career-defining play has already happened, there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’s going to be very good player for a long time. Why wouldn’t we be encouraged about a kid who, six starts into his career, looks like a potential cornerstone. Did I mention he already saved a Super Bowl?
Cameron Wake: What a weird stat line for the Dolphins’ dervish of a defensive end. He didn’t have a sack or a tackle during the first four weeks of the season. In the last two weeks, he has six sacks — including four against the Titans — and four forced fumbles. He also has six solo tackles. In other words, all of his tackles, save for one assist, have been sacks. The Canadian Football League refugee has been a nuisance against the Patriots in the past, with 8.5 sacks in 12 career games. Given the Patriots’ situation at tackle, he’ll probably have some fun a time or two at Brady’s expense again tonight.
Lamar Miller: Well, that’s a stat line that will make you take notice, or at least wonder, ‘Huh, do any of my idiot gambling buddies have him on DraftKings?’’ Miller ran 14 times for 175 yards last week against the quittin’ Texans, a heck of a sequel to his 113-yard performance the week before against the Titans. He also had 61 yards receiving last week. The Patriots’ run defense ranks 19th in the league, allowing 110.3 yards per game, so Miller, a speedy and skilled runner in the open field, could be the key to the Dolphins’ game plan.
SO WHAT DO WE MAKE OF DAN CAMPBELL?
Pete Carroll liked to throw around the phrase “jacked and pumped’’ during his aggravating, decreasingly successful three-year run with the Patriots. Campbell actually is jacked and pumped, a former NFL tight end (his career ended in 2009 while on injured reserve with the Super Bowl champion Saints) who looks like a cross between Bill Cowher and that senior who used to ricochet you off the lockers when you were a freshman in high school. He has the mannerisms of a meathead for sure, and some meatheads really are meatheads, but there is a possibility that Campbell is only a semi-meathead who might actually be a decent coach. He was a Bill Parcells guy, having played for him in Dallas for a couple of seasons, and there’s no denying that the Dolphins have responded to him. I do not believe things will go well for him tonight — a guy who was the tight ends coach three weeks ago is not going to out-scheme Bill Belichick in a normal week, let alone a week in which there were three days to prepare. But the Dolphins, hey, maybe they have something here. He’s inexperienced, and that’s going to show soon. But he’s already better than what they had, with room to grow. Now outta my way, freshman! Gotta go do some squats! [Slam].
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
I suppose the Butler item from above could have or should have gone here. This one isn’t so much a grievance, but a premonition of being ticked off at some point during tonight’s game, when Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh inevitably takes a cheap-shot at a Patriots player. Better keep him away from Brady. I’m not even sure he should be allowed to play in the snow with Gronk.
[fragment number=0]
PREDICTION, OR I BET BRANDON LaFELL HAS FEWER THAN SIX DROPS THIS WEEK
The Dolphins have talent — wide receiver Jarvis Landry is another weapon we haven’t even acknowledged yet — and since Campbell arrived, they have motivation. But on a short week, on the road against the Patriots, it’s not going to be enough. Brady will get rid of the ball quickly, like he always does, to neutralize the Dolphins’ talented defensive line. The Dolphins have a marginal set of linebackers and defensive backs (other than cornerback Brent Grimes), and they will be no match for the depth and variety of the Patriots’ passing game. It may be close early, with the Dolphins fueled by emotion. It will not be close late.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17
Chad Finn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeChadFinn.
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