Dolphins-Patriots prediction roundup: Campbell’s resurgent team facing Foxborough test
Joe Kerrigan replaced Jimy Williams as manager during the 2001 season, and drove the Red Sox into the ground
COMMENTARY
It may be too soon to consider it a complete turnaround, but, at the very least, interim Miami Dolphins head coach Dan Campbell has his team pointed in the right direction. They have won two games in a row since the firing of Joe Philbin.
There won’t be a third.
I mean, Miami, you beat the Titans and the Texans, a pair of teams that are combined 3-10 this season. Yay.
Still, the Dolphins, who play the New England Patriots Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, are seemingly a different team than the brooding underperformers who started the season 1-3.
The question remains though, is Campbell orchestrating this resurgence, or have the inmates gotten control of the asylum? If it’s the latter, things very well could begin to unravel in Foxborough.
That’s always the risk franchises take when switching coaches mid-season. In a best-case scenario, the new guy in charge breathes fresh air into a stale environment. Think Joe Morgan in 1988. But there’s also the possibility of complete collapse. Think Joe Kerrigan in 2001.
In fact, Kerrigan’s ascension to the Red Sox’ managerial chair following the firing of Jimy Williams was indeed the last in-season head coaching change Boston has gone through. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is in his 16th season at the helm, and not since Raymond Berry replaced Ron Meyer has the team finished with someone else other than whom it started with in charge. The Boston Bruins fired Robbie Ftorek near the end of the 2002-03 season. Then-general manager Mike O’Connell took the helm for the final nine games and went an unspectacular 3-3-3. John Carroll (remember him?) replaced Jim O’Brien with the Celtics after the latter resigned in 2004. Doc Rivers hopped aboard later that year.
Truth is, there hasn’t been much opportunity, or need, for local teams to consider in-season changes over the past decade-plus. Current manager John Farrell had the support of Red Sox owner John Henry last summer before his cancer diagnosis, but then too so did former general manager Ben Cherington. Bruins head coach Claude Julien survived last spring’s rocky finish, and was brought back for the 2015-16 season. Following pre-season speculation about the relative heat of his seat, he has started too get some of his team’s pieces to gel during the first month of the NHL campaign. Belichick has shrines dedicated to him. Brad Stevens might as well for the way he’s lauded amongst Celtics fans.
Boston’s gold standard for change will always be Morgan’s Magic for turning a drab squad into winners. Maybe that’s just what Campbell is in the process of doing in Miami.
Then again, remember the words of Morgan after his own firing after the 1991 season; “These guys aren’t as good as everybody thinks.’’
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for Thursday’s Dolphins-Patriots game:
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 28, Dolphins 24. “The revitalized, born-again Dolphins we have seen the past two games have looked good enough to beat anyone, anywhere — and, yeah, that might even include the mighty Patriots in chilly Foxborough. An upset win by Miami on Thursday night would mildly surprise, but certainly not shock. This feels to me like a fierce and great matchup to kick off NFL Week 8. Miami will have a big chance especially if Cameron Wake’s sack party can continue for a third consecutive week and really bother Tom Brady. This game is the ultimate challenge, though, and until the Dolphins prove they can pass a test this difficult — which they haven’t yet — then thinking they will remains risky. The Titans and Texans that Miami dominated are a combined 3-10. The undefeated Pats fronted by Bill Belichick and Brady are a whole different animal. One with claws and fangs. Temperatures expected in the 40s, far more familiar to the home team, only adds to Miami’s task. The palpable lift interim coach Dan Campbell has given the Fins is real; I respect that. But what I respect even more is that “at New England’’ might be any opponent’s scariest three words. The Pats have won 21 of their past 22 home games. Brady is on an 8-0 run in Thursday starts and is 12-1 against Miami at home in this AFC East rivalry. Ryan Tannehill is 0-3 at Gillette with five picks. Too many trends pointing Pat-ward make an outright upset too tall a call here. The point spread appears a shade fat, though. I trust the Dolphins’ improvement enough to see this one TV-pleasing close.’’
South Florida Sun Sentinel staff: All Patriots. From columnist Dave Hyde (Patriots 31, Dolphins 24): “You’ll see the same inspired Dolphins team as the past two weeks. But you’ll see the same Patriots team of the past decade that dominates in Foxboro.’’
ESPN.com: All Pats.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 28, Dolphins 17. “This is a huge game for the Dolphins and interim coach Dan Campbell. How does he handle the monster challenge of facing Bill Belichick? The Dolphins have played much better under Campbell, but I can’t see them, or anybody, slowing Tom Brady right now.’’
CBS Sports staff: Six out of eight pick the Patriots (-7 1/2 New England) against the spread. Everyone picks the Pats straight up.
SB Nation staff: Seven out of eight pick New England.
Foxsports.com staff: All Patriots.
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 31, Dolphins 23. “I have enjoyed the Dan Campbell era in Miami thus far, and I know Dolphins fans have, too. He’s taking on Chuck Norris-like status where you can say anything — some magicians can walk on water, Dan Campbell swims through land — and you’d believe it. But beating Tennessee and Houston isn’t much if you can’t go into New England and challenge the Patriots. New England is banged up, down several offensive linemen and will either be without or with an injured version of Dion Lewis. I still like the Patriots.’’
Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 27, Dolphins 23. “The Dolphins have dramatically reversed an early-season slide that got its head coach fired. And if they get blown out by the Patriots after wins over the Titans and Texans, the new vibe under Dan Campbell will be tested. So maybe they won’t get blown out, but they’re not ready to shock the Patriots — especially after the league once again poked the bear with its #DeflateGate legal filing.’’
Michael David Smith, ProFootballTalk: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20. “The Dolphins look like a totally different team under Dan Campbell than they looked under Joe Philbin. But even this new and improved Dolphins team isn’t good enough to win at New England.’’
FiveThirtyEight: New England with an 87 percent chance of winning.
MassLive staff: Everybody loves the Patriots.
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots. “It’s tricky, because you never know how the Thursday games are going to play out. Plus the Dolphins are all hopped up on Mountain Dew, or whatever it is that Dan Campbell is feeding them, that they’re definitely going to bring a high emotional level in Foxboro.
But … let’s not carried away. They’re still the Dolphins. They have a new coach, but these are the same players who lost to the Jaguars and Bills. I really don’t care at all about the offensive statistics they’ve been able to put up on the Titans and Texans. Those two teams might combine for five wins this season.’’
Boston Globe staff: Three out of five pick the Patriots (New England minus-7 1/2).
It says here: Patriots 29, Dolphins 19. Who knows what the Dolphins might become by the end of the season, but they sure as hell aren’t beating the Patriots in Foxborough on Thursday night.
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur
Looking at the 1985 Patriots, 30 years later
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