5 keys for a Patriots win over the Dolphins
COMMENTARY
Things are simpler in Miami.
Since interim head coach Dan Campbell has taken over in Miami, the Dolphins have won two straight, and according to Bill Belichick, that success is due to simplification, particularly in terms of their defensive scheme.
The Dolphins beat the 1-5 Tennessee Titans and 2-5 Houston Texans. In Week 7, quarterback Ryan Tannehill set an NFL record with 25 consecutive completions and four 50-yard touchdowns in a half. The simplified defense has generated 10 sacks in the last two games.
But in Week 8, simple won’t cut it — not against Tom Brady and Belichick.
The Patriots will take on Miami with the NFL’s most unstoppable offense and an improving defense. Here are the five keys for a Patriots’ victory over the Dolphins.
1. Pats can win by passing all day, but the matchup calls for Patriots to favor the rushing attack
The Patriots showed they don’t need to run the ball. Against the Jets, they rushed the ball nine times. And while that resulted in 30 points and a win for the Patriots — and would work against most teams in the NFL — it wouldn’t hurt to run the ball against the third-worst run defense in the league in yards per game.
Brady may feel like he’s getting more mobile, but he’s definitely 38 years old. If the Patriots can avoid subjecting him to the Miami pass rush, they should.
The potential return of offensive linemen Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason could help the run game. LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis (if healthy) will take what the defense is giving them — which will likely be massive running lanes.
2. David Andrews needs to continue consistency (against Ndamukong Suh, gulp)
No one outside of Georgia knew who Andrews was going into this year. The former Bulldog went undrafted and signed with the Patriots after the 2015 NFL Draft. Bryan Stork was the incumbent center with Pro Bowl potential, and Andrews looked like practice squad player.
Yet through 355 snap of the Patriots season, Andrews has play all 355, the most on the team. Stork is on the IR-designated to return, and Andrews has allowed only one of the Patriots’ 16 sacks. To put that in perspective, consider Panthers’ Kawan Short is leading defensive tackles with five sacks and is on pace for 13.3 sacks during the season. Andrews is on pace to allow 2.6 sacks.
Unfortunately, the $100-million man, Suh will be lining up across from him. The Dolphins defensive tackle is everything a 300-pound human shouldn’t be — fast and agile — while being everything a 300-pound human should be — strong, disruptive, and forceful.
3. Give Malcolm Butler help
The Dolphins receiving core includes two threats in Rishard Matthews and Jarvis Landry who have shown potential to make big plays. Butler has mostly been lining up on the left side of the defense, and so he may see either one — or both — of the receivers.
The second-year corner has performed as well as most could ask as he transitions to the No. 1 spot. But similar to throwing 50 times a game, the Patriots can win with Butler in single coverage the entire game. In fact, they’ve won six games like that. Still, the Dolphins will take a lot of chances on big plays, and Devin McCourty may have to help Butler with coverage over the top of Matthews and Landry. And McCourty is in his element as a centerfielder — if Tannehill makes a few mistakes on a deep balls, McCourty may end up with an interception or two.
4. Keep going to Brandon LaFell
Brandon LaFell took the field after missing the first six games of the season. Six drops later, he was on the sideline, watching Aaron Dobson take his snaps — the same Dobson, who has been highly criticized for being prone to drops.
LaFell was critical on himself after the performance, but Brady and Belichick stood by him. He’ll prove this week his drop-heavy game was a fluke. LaFell presents a different threat for opposing defenses than Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. With his size and speed, he can help the Patriots attack the deep-middle of the field. When LaFell returns to form, the Patriots should have the deepest wide receiver group in the NFL.
That’s a scary thought: the Patriots passing attack is only getting better.
5. Keep Cameron Wake out of the backfield
Wake is entering this game hot, with six sacks in the last two games. It’s bad news for the Patriots tackles, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, and Cameron Fleming. With Cannon’s health in flux, it’s unclear which player will line be tasked with keeping Wake at bay. Whoever it is, he will need focus and technique on every play — Wake battles the entire game with relentless energy.
And he always gets up for New England. In 12 career games against the Patriots, Wake has 8.5 sacks and 31 tackles.
“I don’t want to beat some broken-down Brady or Belichick. I want them at the top,’’ Wake told Bleacher Report in May 2015.
Wise or not, he’s got them right where he wants them.
Where the Patriots called home before Gillette
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