Why beating the Jets may begin a perfect storm for the Patriots
Tom Brady after the Patriots’ third win of the 2015 season.
COMMENTARY
It figures that the New England Patriots would remove the “16-0’’ banner from Gillette Stadium prior to a season when they could conceivably justify putting it right back up.
Not that it’s a sight anyone is really aching for around these parts. That thing was rightfully viewed as an embarrassment by most Patriots fans, the ultimate reminder of the franchise’s greatest failure. It was a misguided eyesore whose stain was only washed away from Foxborough after seven years — and a fourth Super Bowl title banner.
Well, naturally, with the Patriots kicking off 2015 with a pristine, 5-0 record, it was inevitable that talk of perfection was going to get louder. Hell, we started hearing rumblings of it with the Patriots coming off a 51-17 victory over the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars, improving their start to 3-0.
Now, with 31 percent of the season behind them, the thought endures, yet must remain accompanied by the qualification already outlined that a 16-0 regular season is merely a step toward a fifth Lombardi Trophy, and, finally, the first 19-0 season in NFL history.
With 11 games remaining on the regular season schedule, it’s still a ludicrous proposition.
Yet, if the Patriots get past the New York Jets at Gillette on Sunday, it’s hard to envision them finishing with anything other than a 14-2 record. Frankly, they should finish 16-0 if they prove capable of grounding these Jets.
Of the nine teams remaining on New England’s schedule, only two (Jets at 4-1, and Denver Broncos at 6-0) currently boast records above .500. The combined mark of all teams remaining on the Patriots’ schedule this season is 26-25. Take away the Jets and Broncos, that overall record falls to only 16-24.
Blech.
One only had to cast even a casual glance at Monday night’s mistake-fueled disaster in Philadelphia between the Eagles and New York Giants (apologies for making you sit through that, fellow Star Wars nerds, but it isn’t always that bad) to understand that the experience of being a fan of most NFL teams this year is akin to dining in steerage aboard the Titanic, settling for scraps while a select few enjoy a five-star atmosphere. Disregard the undefeated Patriots, Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, and Cincinnati Bengals, and there are only five other teams even above .500 at this point. Each week brings another wave of coaching blunders, rule-related mishaps, and dreadful execution that makes the mountain-to-molehills landscape of the league look like the backdrop to Salt Lake City.
For all its celebrated parity (a 7-9 record might be good enough to win the the AFC South and the NFC East), the NFL is approaching the competitive level of the NBA, where only a handful of teams have a legitimate shot of winning the title every season, based solely on the amount of star power at their disposal.
In today’s NFL, a team’s ability to contend starts and ends with the quarterback, which speaks volumes to what Andy Dalton has accomplished this season for the Bengals, and just how underrated Ryan Fitzpatrick has been for the Jets. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has already beaten Pittsburgh Steelers signal caller Ben Roethlisberger, and now looks at the remainder of a season that includes the likes of Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor (if healthy), Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, the two-headed puppy of Ryan Mallet and Brian Hoyer, and rookie Marcus Mariota.
There’s no Russell Wilson in the way, no Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, or even Dalton to fear down the stretch. Instead, only the defenses of the Jets (best in the league at 15 points allowed per game) and Broncos (17 points allowed per game, fourth best) truly pose a threat to the Patriots during the regular season. This is why games like Sunday’s 34-27 win over the Indianapolis Colts, a game in which everybody expected the Patriots to run up the score on the Deflategate whistle-blowers, end up being more valuable for Bill Belichick than easily dropping 60 in spite ever would have been. The defending champions had yet to face a battle with the intensity of the one the Colts put up Sunday evening, despite Chuck Pagano’s inability to properly coach a trick play.
New England certainly doesn’t have anything left like the sort of five-game stretch it had in 2014, when it faced the Broncos, Colts, Detroit Lions, Packers, and San Diego Chargers late in the season en route to its 12-4 record. Only the 9-7 Chargers missed the playoffs among that group, which finished a combined 52-25 last season. The Patriots, of course, lost only to the Packers over that period, by five points on Nov. 30.
Adversity in 2015 seems likely to be a bit harder to come by for the Patriots, especially with the entirety of the AFC South and NFC East on the schedule. Five of the teams from those divisions have a combined record of 11-18. Through six weeks, Denver has lived on the strength of its defense while the mirage of the aging Manning has been the 33rd-worst-rated quarterback (72.5) among starters in the NFL. Only Mallett has been worse. Nobody has a worse touchdown-to-interception rate (7-to-10) than No. 18. And mind you, that’s in the weather of September and October. What is Manning possibly going to look like once Denver’s cold air greets the Patriots in late November?
The Patriots aren’t going to lose to Rex Ryan’s Big Top Bills at home. No way. Bill O’Brien’s Texans are a mess. The Giants looked more like an imploding unit ready to battle for the No. 1 draft pick than a playoff spot against the Eagles, who might be the best team in the NFC East by default until Tony Romo gets healthy. The Jets could threaten again in Week 16. Maybe the Patriots will lose to the Dolphins in Week 17, but only if every home-field advantage in the playoffs is wrapped up and Jimmy G. starts in Brady’s place.
Of course, Brady won’t likely be resting that week if the Patriots are 15-0 heading into the season finale.
Perfection in the regular season can really become more of a burden than anything, as those who experienced 2007 understand all too well. It only fuels the need to remain flawless, even when the noise about accomplishing the feat can provide its own unnecessary distraction from the more important goal.
But if the Patriots get past the Jets, the possibility goes from a boisterous proposal to a distinct opportunity.
After all, who is really going to stand in their way?
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur
Photos from the Patriots’ win in Indy
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