Patriots-Colts prediction roundup: Let’s face facts, the Colts just aren’t very good
AP Photo
COMMENTARY
Yawn.
After everything that occurred on Jan. 15, this was all supposed to have some bite to it, some sense of a most-important regular season clash between two titans of the NFL.
Instead, “Colts Week’’ has hardly been different than any other layup on the New England Patriots’ schedule.
Much of this is a common realization that the Colts, for all the glory of being a 2014 AFC Finalist, aren’t a very good football team.
For all the grief the Patriots have received over the years for dominating the also-rans in the AFC East, the Colts have taken perhaps even more advantage of the pathetic grouping of divisional opponents in the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t made the postseason since 2007, the Tennessee Titans since 2008. The Houston Texans have made it twice in franchise history; in 2011 and 2012, when the Patriots embarrassed the varsity jackets off them.
The Colts, meanwhile, have missed the playoffs only one season since 2001, the “Suck for Luck’’ campaign in 2011 that landed quarterback Andrew Luck in Indianapolis’ laps as a natural replacement for Peyton Manning.
This year, the Colts’ divisional opponents have but three wins amassed among them. Even with the sad-sack Miami Dolphins to claim, the Patriots’ AFC East rivals have more than double that amount through five weeks of the 2015 NFL season. Last Thursday, the Colts even became the first team in league history to record 16 consecutive wins within the division with a victory over the Texans. Forty-one percent of the Colts’ wins over the last three years have come against AFC South opponents. Indy is only 23-19, including playoffs, against every body else.
Since the start of the 2013 season, the Patriots are 9-4 within their division, 23-5 (including playoffs) otherwise.
So, who’s got the real “tomato cans,’’ Eddie?
Luck hasn’t progressed to the point where he can be considered an elite quarterback, and may have already been lapped in that regard by Andy Dalton, of all people. Head coach Chuck Pagano, for all the inspiration his personal battle provides, evokes more of a “yippee’’ Pete Carroll (circa, 2007) aura than he does Bill Belichick. General manager Ryan Grigson built this year’s edition as if he were looking at a fantasy roster from 2009, adding geriatrics Frank Gore and Andre Johnson to the offensive mix. Owner Jim Irsay…well, where do we possibly begin?.
This isn’t exactly like back in 2007, when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady faced off at the old RCA dome with a combined record of 15-0 to that point in early November. The Colts started this year 0-2, should have lost to the lowly Jaguars and Titans, but yet come into their game against the Patriots Sunday night on the rebound at 3-2. The Colts have won all three games by a combined total of 12 points. The Patriots in their four wins? Seventy-three.
That shouldn’t be a measuring stick, but the drastic difference pretty much tells us what we already know, and why the days leading up to this one-time hotly-anticipated matchup have been filled with about as much intrigue as an episode of “Family Feud.’’
The Colts sort of suck. Unfortunately, for them this week, that realization only comes in Indianapolis come January.
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for Sunday’s Patriots-Colts game:
ESPN.com: Unanimous Patriots.
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 34, Colts 20. “NFL Week 6 didn’t serve up a clear-cut Game of the Week, but we’re not apologizing for offering unbeaten Patriots at hot (three wins in a row) Colts in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game — the 45-7 Pats rout that tipped off the whole Deflategate mess. I expect Andrew Luck back from injury here to give Indy a fighting chance in this prime-timer. The prospect of a real air show is all around this game, too; you don’t see many 55-point over/unders except on Saturdays. But I also have a tough time seeing the mistake-prone Nags derailing New England. Past have beaten Indy six times in a row by an average margin of 21 points, and look for Tom Brady’s mastery to continue.’’
Don Banks, Sports Illustrated: Patriots 31, Colts 17. “Sure, Tom Brady, this is just another game. Nothing special about Week 6. Whatever you say. But just watch the Patriots’ play-calling in the second half, should they build a lead. Will they pour it on, or pull it back? What do you think? New England’s revenge tour has arrived at its most meaningful stop, and I have no reason to believe the Patriots won’t be trying to make the Colts regret ever bringing up that whole messy ball inflation issue last January. With or without Indy quarterback Andrew Luck at his best, the Colts won’t be able to hang around in this one if they play like they did in just squeaking past AFC South opponents like Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston the past three weeks. Indy needs to bring its A game, and we haven’t seen it yet this season.’’
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 37, Colts 27. “This is Deflategate revenge time for the Patriots. The Colts are the team that called them out. Don’t think the Patriots won’t take that into consideration. Tom Brady will light up the Colts secondary. Even if Andrew Luck plays, and he likely will, the Colts won’t keep up.’’
CBS Sports staff: Seven out of eight pick New England vs. the spread (Indy, plus-7.5). Everybody picks the Pats straight-up.
Peter Schrager, Foxsports.com: Patriots 38, Colts 20. “The Patriots outscored the Colts 88-29 in two meetings last year, and that was before the Colts tattled on the Patriots about the air pressure in footballs. If you think the Patriots are above making this one personal, you don’t know the Patriots.’’
Foxsports.com staff: All Patriots.
FiveThirtyEight: Patriots have a 65 percent chance of winning.
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 34, Colts 21. “Andrew Luck is set to make his triumphant return in Indy — but not so much in terms of what you’ll see on the scoreboard. New England has owned the Colts, and while Indy’s players will be pumped about playing the team that ousted them from the playoffs, the defense simply doesn’t have the horses to keep up.
The biggest issue? The lack of takeaways. After five games, five forced turnovers won’t cut it for a team that has been careless with the football (12 giveaways). The Patriots are already at plus-five in turnover differential even after having a bye. Tom Brady has been able to make the offense work without taking unnecessary risks downfield. Part of that has been the rise of running Dion Lewis, who is averaging 5 yards per carry and has caught 23 balls this season. That’s tops among AFC running backs.’’
SB Nation staff: New England across the board.
USA Today staff: Pats across the board. Six of the seven pick New England as the “Lock of the Week.’’
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 49, Colts 17. “The Colts pulled the pin on the #DeflateGate grenade. The Patriots will say all the right things before the rematch. And then the Patriots will do everything they can to make the Colts regret running their mouths to the league.’’
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Patriots 31, Colts 10. “The Deflategate rematch will be a blowout like the original Deflategate game. Patriots roll in Indianapolis, with fully inflated footballs.’’
Mass Live staff: All Pats. “Oh, hey. Look at that. The Patriots are playing the Colts this season. Has anyone mentioned this yet?’’
Jimmy Kempski, PhillyVoice staff: Patriots. “Is Andrew Luck going to play? Is he going to sit? Who cares? The Patri*ts are a juggernaut right now, and the Colts aren’t anywhere near as good a team as many (self included) thought they’d be before the season began. For the second straight week, Tom Brady has reason to stick it to his opponent for personal reasons. Last week, Greg Hardy was yapping about Brady’s wife. This week, Brady may conjure up the Colts tattling on him about deflated footballs during the playoffs last season. I expect the Patri*ts to roll, Luck or no Luck.’’
Michael Hurley, CBS Boston: Patriots (minus-eight). “What in the world is going on with this line? It could be 28 and I’d still feel pretty confident in taking the Patriots. My goodness. Forget all that stuff I said about how great Vegas is. What a joke.’’
Globe staff: All Pats.
Neil Greenberg, Washington Post: Patriots, 80 percent. “This was supposed to be quarterback Tom Brady’s first game back from suspension. Instead, he is in command of the 4-0 Patriots with 1,387 yards and 11 touchdowns for a league-leading 121.5 passer rating. Andrew Luck, on the other hand, ranks second to last in the traditional passer rating (65.1) and dead last in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating.’’
Man vs. Cat: Man: Patriots (by four touchdowns); Cat: Colts.
[fragment number=0]
It says here: Patriots 41, Colts 22. An anonymous call to Indy Star columnist Gregg Doyel in the wee hours of Monday morning accuses the Patriots of roofying the Gatorade on the Colts sideline.
Every time Tom Brady has beaten the Colts
[bdc-gallery id=”147346″]
Contact Eric Wilbur at: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @GlobeEricWilbur
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com