5 keys to the Patriots’ matchup against the Colts
COMMENTARY
Deflategate. Glad that’s over with. Out of our system?
Let’s talk about a football game that features two teams atop their divisions with two of the league’s best quarterbacks in Tom Brady and, likely, Andrew Luck, who is nursing a shoulder injury but should play. The Colts are on a three-game winning streak against a less-than-stellar cast in the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans. The Patriots have won their last seven games, including last year’s AFC Championship Game, where they beat the Colts, 45-7.
And while the majority of the media is predicting a blowout for the Patriots, it’s never that easy. The Colts are formidable, the Patriots are elite, and their matchup deserves its primetime spot on Sunday night, even without the Deflategate-induced tension. And while it’s unlikely, the Colts can win this football game.
Here are Patriots five keys to victory over the Colts.
1. Don’t try to defeat the NFL — just the Colts
The Patriots “vengeance tour’’ meets its maker, right?
Well, not really.
These Colts players weren’t responsible for Deflategate, and so the Patriots players have no reason to dole out vengeance on the field, especially past the whistle. Deflategate started over email, in the bowels of Gillette, and in front offices — the Colts players are not to blame. This game doesn’t need to be a statement to Roger Goodell and the NFL — the season will be. So while it’s tempting to say the Patriots must exact revenge on the Colts during Sunday night’s game, they shouldn’t.
They should play good football, and they should win. Not because of Deflategate, but because they’re much better at football than the Colts.
2. Use Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount to exploit the Colts’ poor defense
The Patriots have rushed for 762 yards in their last four appearances against the Colts (since they drafted Luck). And the Patriots won all four games.
With Dion Lewis in the fold, the Patriots run offense looks arguably better than it did in 2014, when they racked up most of those 762 yards. Lewis may be small, but he’s patient in finding holes between the tackles, and explodes through the line of scrimmage (which is something Shane Vereen couldn’t do). His 5-foot-8 stature makes him difficult to locate and tackle in scrums, and he can shake defenders in space. As a result, he is the team’s third-leading receiver.
Once a defense has chased Lewis between the tackles in the run game — and from sideline to sideline in the passing game — the Patriots replace Lewis with LeGarrette Blount, who must be one of the most painful players to tackle in the NFL. As games wind down, he’ll break tackles and chew clock.
The Colts’ resolve will wither.
This isn’t to say Brady won’t pass for 300 yards. But the Patriots will start with the run, and they’ll stick to it until the Colts stop it.
3. Marcus Cannon needs to be solid
Nate Solder is out for the rest of the season with a torn biceps. Marcus Cannon relieved Solder in the second half of the game against the Cowboys, and allowed no sacks. He’s been the Patriots’ sixth man (in a basketball sense) on the offensive line, as the Patriots have plugged Cannon in the interior and used guard Shaq Mason at full back in short-yardage situations.
The Patriots may decide to move Sebastian Vollmer to left tackle instead of Cannon, as Vollmer replaced Matt Light in 2009. Though Vollmer is tight-lipped about such a move.
The offensive line was already struggling, allowing a 10th-worst 2.75 sacks per game. Cannon’s promotion and, perhaps, Vollmer’s transition seems like a given, because it’s what the Patriots do.
4. The Patriots’ secondary must limit Indy’s dynamic passing attack
Antonio Brown scorched the Patriots for 133 yards and a touchdown. And he’s been the only elite receiver the Patriots have played. The rest have been a medley of mediocrity in Allen Robinson, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins.
But with Brown and the Steelers, the Patriots faced one outstanding pass-catching threat. The Colts have three — maybe four.
T.Y. Hilton is a legitimate deep threat, and while Andre Johnson hasn’t been as productive as expected, his measurables (6-foot-3, 229 pounds) could be problematic for a group of Patriots’ cornerbacks no taller than 5-foot-11. Donte Moncrief has been more productive than Johnson, and 2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett has the potential to blow the lid off the defense.
This deep group of receivers will test the integrity of Patriots’ under-construction secondary. Devin McCourty and Malcolm Butler will be tasked with holding the pass defense together.
5. The Jamie Collins/Dont’a Hightower breakout tour must continue
Jerod Mayo’s return has been underwhelming — he’s barely seen the field. But that hasn’t mattered because Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower have accounted for 37.5 percent of the Patriots’ sacks and 22.4 percent of their tackles.
Hightower’s return to practice should come as a relief to the Patriots, as he and Collins make for two of the most dynamic linebackers in the league. Collins has displayed the ability to cover in passing situations, sniff out the run, and rush the passer. Defenses can’t stop either of them — they’re all over the field. They’ll be pivotal in stopping Frank Gore, and sacking whoever plays under center for the Colts.
Belichick yourself before you wreck yourself
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