Patriots fans are not overconfident about beating Colts – but they have a right to be
Patriots fans hold up a ‘revenge tour’ sign.
COMMENTARY
So it appears we’ve come to the inevitable portion of Crush The Colts (Again) Week in which the conversation is shifted deliberately and without nuance from how badly the Patriots will, well, crush the Colts (again) to faux-concerned ruminations on whether New England fans are overconfident.
Ugh. Do we have to do this again? Now? Really? Really.
Whenever the Patriots are favored to win a highly anticipated game, the talking points tends to follow this same, tired progression. Media members and talk show hosts build the hype, then reverse field like Dion Lewis and accuse fans of buying into that hype. What had been a fun, anticipatory week then ends with finger-wagging at fans for getting too cocky and potentially being in for some comeuppance.
It’s as predictable as it is annoying.
What’s funny is that this is the rare game when the hype and the confidence are warranted. If you want to accuse Patriots fans of being overconfident, sure, go ahead. The Patriots beat the Colts by 38 points in the AFC Championship Game. Since then, there was some sort of hubbub about slightly deflated footballs footballs being used in the first half of that game — no, no need to fill me in — when the Patriots weren’t even at their best. That became an unnecessary, absurdist mini-series throughout the summer, one that left the Patriots with another reason to bury the tattling-about-minutiae Colts.
A vengeful Tom Brady is typically an unstoppable Tom Brady. Oh, did I mention he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year? Or that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is banged up and may not even play? Or that it would have been extremely difficult for the Colts to implement any of the wrinkles and tricks that they would likely need to beat the Patriots since Luck hasn’t been fully practicing in the weeks leading up to game? Or that Indy’s major offseason acquisitions on offense — Frank Gore and Andre Johnson — were college teammates … starting 15 long years ago? Or that the defense with a history of making every Patriots running back look like peak Jim Brown has only made cursory adjustments to its line? Or that the Colts coach recently cried after beating the Titans?
To condense: The Patriots have more motivation — perhaps unprecedented motivation for a game with no trophy or banner at stake — to hammer and humiliate the Colts, a team that — I repeat — they beat by 38 in January?
Yeah, there are reasons to be exceedingly confident. All logic tells us that the Patriots — and by proxy, their fans — should feel damn good about this game.
And yet, to ruin the predictable twist in the pregame narrative, I don’t think anyone is overconfident around here. Fans included.
Sure, after all of the noise and nonsense of the offseason — again, instigated by the petty Ravens and Colts — Patriots fans may have caught themselves looking up the scores of the biggest blowouts in pro football history and daydreaming that the Patriots might trump them. Pondering a 73-0 rout is a fine way to imagine vindication, and there’s little doubt that Brady and the Patriots will try to drop as many points on the Colts as possible.
But it’s also true, and never far from mind, that the bounces and breaks (and brutal calls, too) in an NFL game sometimes can close the gap between teams with a seemingly wide differential in talent. And it’s not as if the Colts lack talent — Luck has a fine chance to be the greatest quarterback of his generation. While his career lacks defining moments so far, wouldn’t beating the Patriots now, while injured, stand as the first notch-on-the-belt victory that we know will eventually come? He’s probably not up to that, now, in his current condition. But he might be. And you never dismiss the might.
There are circumstances where the Colts could win. Of course there are. Gore, who I believe was backfield partners at Miami with Ottis Anderson in the ‘70s, could have a flashback day against a Patriots defense that is in the middle of the pack against the run. T.Y. Hilton, who had just four catches in two games against the Patriots last year while mostly being covered by Kyle Arrington, could finally find a few openings against a remodeled defensive backfield. Brady, who took a pounding against Dallas last week, could take further lumps from the Colts pass rush with left tackle Nate Solder out for the year. Hell, Roger Goodell could declare the Colts winners by a 74-0 score because he’s the league commissioner and it’s for the integrity of the game and HOW DARE YOU QUESTION HIS AUTHORITY.
Do I expect these things to happen? No, except for maybe that last one. It’s right to expect the Patriots to win, even to win big. History and, more relevantly, the betting line suggest they will.
No matter whether Patriots fans are or are not overconfident, there’s the familiar comfort to be found in this truth: The Patriots themselves will not be overconfident.
On Bill Belichick’s watch, I’m not sure that they ever are or ever have been. But they will be as motivated as they can possibly be, even by their usual high standard.
And that, when you think about it, is the ultimate reason for you to be very confident.
Chad Finn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@GlobeChadFinn.
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