5 keys to the Patriots matchup against the Jaguars
COMMENTARY
Optimism in Jacksonville? Maybe.
Concern about the Jaguars in New England? Hardly.
For the first time since 2011, the Jaguars started the season 1-1 instead of falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. After going nearly a decade without seeing a winning team, Jacksonville can be happy with a .500 record through two weeks. New England wouldn’t be.
All these hopeful Jags need to establish legitimacy is a marquee win against — oh, I don’t know — the defending Super Bowl champions, who are fresh off a week of heavy adulation.
While the Patriots rarely overlook opponents or rest on their laurels after a win, even normally taciturn head coach Bill Belichick has been practically gushing with compliments for his 2-0 team after it silenced Rex Ryan’s Bills.
Here are the five keys for the Patriots as they attempt to quash the Jaguars’ hopes and dreams — as they have done so many times before.
1. Tom Brady and Gronk have to keep getting theirs
It’s no secret at this point: quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski are the Patriots’ best players. Through two weeks, they’ve been the best in the league at their positions.
The Patriots have outscored opponents 68-53 in their two wins. Gronk has caught four of Brady’s seven touchdown passes in those games. The need to stop these two may be obvious to opposing defenses, but that doesn’t mean they can actually do it.
Averaging 17.3 yards per reception, Gronk is the largest (physically) deep threat in the league. With Gronk running wild up the seam of the field, the Patriots offense has been able to move the ball between the 20-yard lines. Once in the red zone, the Patriots have had success entering a jumbo-set with two to four tight ends. They split Gronk out in motion with Scott Chandler, and Brady finds the best mismatch.
Such a massive tight end tandem matched with Brady’s pre-snap intelligence makes for an efficient red zone offense. It’s why they’ve finished with touchdowns in seven of their nine red zone trips.
2. Malcolm Butler must deny Allen Robinson the ball
In Week 1, Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson had just one reception for 27 yards in a 20-9 loss to the Panthers. In Week 2, he pulled in six receptions for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a 23-20 win over the Dolphins.
The increased production in Week 2 showed how badly the Jaguars want — and need — Robinson to touch the ball. With rookie running back T.J. Yeldon averaging 3.3 yards per carry, Robinson is by far the most explosive skill player on this offense.
If Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler can slow down the 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver, he’ll force Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles to go through his progressions and spread the ball around.
3. The Patriots must force Blake Bortles to throw the ball
The Patriots will see how many interceptions they can coax out of the Jaguars’ second-year quarterback. While he’s thrown fewer picks in recent games, Bortles has 14 touchdowns against 19 interceptions through 16 career games.
To increase Bortles’ pass count, the Patriots offense needs to score early. To keep up, the Jaguars will have to start throwing the ball.
But even when Bortles drops back, the Patriots need to remain mindful of his ability to run the ball. To force him to throw rather than run, the Patriots must contain the edges of the pocket with defensive ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. A disciplined rush will force Bortles to use his arm rather than his legs.
Whether coralling Bortles or stuffing Yeldon, the Patriots’ rush defense also needs to improve upon its 28th-overall ranking in yards allowed through two games. If the Patriots keep Yeldon from improving his low yards-per-carry average, then the load will fall on Bortles’ arm on 3rd-and-long situations. If Bortles forces the ball, Butler and safety Devin McCourty will be ready.
4. Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower and Jabaal Sheard will continue to apply pressure
Aren’t these guys fun to watch?
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia deployed this dynamic foursome in various ways to stump Tyrod Taylor and the Bills’ offensive line. The Patriots rarely rushed more than four players, but still generated more pressure than the Bills could handle. Jones moved to defensive tackle for some snaps. Collins, Hightower, and Sheard interchanged roles as pass-rusher, coverage linebacker, and quarterback spy.
Eight sacks and 10 quarterback hits later, the Patriots’ defense had a new identity. The question is whether it will stick. Belichick has a habit of changing his gameplan, tailoring it to each opponent like a bespoke suite (one that bursts into flames while it’s being worn). He’ll probably deem it advantageous to dial up complex rushing schemes to stump 23-year-old Bortles, which should mean more sacks from these four players.
5. The interior offensive line must maintain its consistency while getting feisty
Thanks to the work of the Patriots’ inexperienced offensive line, the Bills’ touted defensive line managed to hit Brady only five times in Week 2. Brady’s protecters face another stiff test as the Jaguars’ defense boasts a talented front. Brady’s quick release may be a duct-tape patch for this young offensive line’s cracks, but the Patriots miss injured linemen Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendell.
Rookies Tre’ Jackson, Shaq Mason and David Andrews have performed admirably in their first two NFL games while fill-in Josh Kline has been a serviceable right guard. But they’ll all need to protect better in passing situations and maul harder on running plays. Through two games, the Patriots’ rushing offense is averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
The learning curve isn’t falling off, though — Jared Odrick, Tyson Alualu, Chris Clemons, and Roy Miller await.
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