Unconventional Preview: Rex Ryan’s success vs. Patriots is exaggerated, but Bills’ progress is not
COMMENTARY
Welcome to Season 4, Episode 2 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup that runs right here every weekend.
After opening their championship defense with a 28-21 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday, the Patriots travel to Buffalo to face longtime semi-nemesis Rex Ryan and his Buffalo Bills. Ryan, whose first season as head coach of the Bills began with an impressive 27-14 victory over the Colts last Sunday, has a reputation as someone whose defensive schemes give Tom Brady and the Patriots difficulty.
That reputation – which Ryan, who spent six years with the Jets, is always happy to elaborate upon – is built mostly on one victory, a 28-21 victory at Gillette Stadium over the heavily favored Patriots in the 2010 postseason.
His overall record against the Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots as a head coach hardly qualifies as impressive by normal standards – he’s 4-9, including a dismal 1-7 since 2011. I suppose four wins over the Patriots is something to cherish — it’s just that it’s a stretch to call him anything more than an occasional nuisance.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’ll get that fifth win Sunday. The Bills were very impressive against the Colts, and they’ll be amped up to prove that the Patriots aren’t a lock to win the AFC East yet again. Kick it off, Gostkowski, and let’s get this one started …
THREE PLAYERS I’LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
Scott Chandler: This is going to be fun. Already is, actually. In their season-opening victory over the Steelers last Thursday, the Patriots utilized their approximately 13 feet and 525 pounds of tight ends from a creative variety of positions, even lining up Rob Gronkowski (6 feet 6 inches, 265 pounds) and Chandler (6-7, 260) at wide receiver on a couple of occasions. The result: four touchdowns (three four Gronk, one for Chandler) and frequent chaos on the Pittsburgh defense. Gronk will do his Gronk things – not even King Kong would have much of a shot in single coverage despite what Rex Ryan quips – but it’s Chandler, the former Bill, who adds an element of intrigue as Tom Brady’s newest toy. It’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots deploy him against his former team. He was a frequent nuisance against the Patriots, catching four touchdowns against them in his four-plus seasons as a Bill.
Tyrod Taylor: In four NFL seasons before this one, Taylor appeared in a total of 14 games, all with the Baltimore Ravens, all in relief. In those 14 games, he completed 19 of 35 passes for 189 yards and two interceptions. There was little indication in his limited action that the former sixth-round pick would ever emerge as a viable starting quarterback. So it comes as something of a surprise that during last Sunday’s Bills-Colts opener, Taylor looked like more than a viable starter. He looked like an excellent starting quarterback, completing 14 of 19 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown while also running for another 46 yards. Whether his opening performance in his first Buffalo start – make that his first career start – was a mirage remains to be seen. I have some skepticism about what he’ll ultimately prove to be, but that’s more because of Rex Ryan’s historical inability to nurture young quarterbacks (other than in the lost art of the buttfumble) than a lack of ability on Taylor’s part.
Preston Brown: I’ll admit, I didn’t know much about him before the opener last Sunday, and by saying I didn’t know much about him, I mean I can’t recall ever having heard of him before. But against the Colts, the second-year (looked it up) linebacker who was chosen in the third round out of Louisville (looked that up, too) made me take notice of his name and game. His numbers weren’t spectacular – 6 tackles, 2 solo, 1 pass defensed – but he seemed to be the ferocious center of a relentless Bills defense that held the Colts to 64 yards rushing. His hard-hitting presence reminded me of what David Harris did for Rex Ryan’s Jets defenses for so many years. I’m curious if he’s capable of a sequel against LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots’ young offensive line Sunday.
GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
There are many, many people who picked the Indianapolis Colts to get to and even prevail in Super Bowl 50. Some of these people even operate under the guise of NFL expert.
The NFL Network and NFL.com, for example, had 13 of its personalities pick the Super Bowl participants and the winner. Of the 13, nine picked the Colts to get there, and two picked them to win.
ESPN and ESPN.com had 48 of its personalities make the same predictions. Seventeen picked the Colts to reach the Super Bowl. Six picked them to win it.
Even Vegas has gotten in on the act; MGM set the Colts as the favorite to win the Super Bowl after they acquired 34-year-old receiver Andre Johnson and 32-year-old running back Frank Gore in August.
I bring this up for one reason: It’s absolutely asinine to predict the Colts to win anything beyond their division and perhaps a new participation banner or two. Their offense is awesome. Their defense remains a mess.
They are the 1980s Chargers – if the 1980s Chargers were boring. (They were not. They were as flashy as a bolt of lightning, even if they never won a damn thing.)
In two meetings last year, the Patriots outscored the Colts 87-27, running for 433 yards in the victories. The Colts have not repaired that crater in their defense. They added an accomplished but ancient receiver (to replace another accomplished but ancient receiver) and an accomplished but ancient running back.
They are the same, at best. They will participate in the playoffs. They will not win a banner that means a damn thing.
DREW’S DEBUT WAS 22 YEARS AGO? MAN, WE’RE ALL OLD
Can I entice you with <a href=”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3lZs6oPo6k
” class=””>NBC’s full broadcast of the Patriots-Bills opener from 1993 – aka Drew Bledsoe’s NFL debut and Bill Parcells’s first game as New England’s coach? I thought so, but I should probably supply a warning label as well: Cris Collinsworth is the color analyst.
Trivia: Bledsoe’s first career touchdown pass went to Ben Coates, which you might have guessed. His second in the Patriots’ 38-14 loss to the eventual AFC champs, went to Brockton High legend Greg McMurtry, which you probably did not guess.
PREDICTION, OR WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THAT FRED JACKSON FELLOW?
Actually, for all of the lamentations in Buffalo about the decision to cut longtime fan-favorite Jackson in August, the Bills have accumulated a talented if somewhat enigmatic collection of skill players, among them receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and running back LeSean McCoy.
McCoy could be the key to Sunday’s game – if he plays. The longtime Eagles standout, one of a number of high-profile players purged by Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly in the offseason, was listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with hamstring tightness on Friday.
If he can go, he should get plenty of opportunities against a Patriots run defense that allowed 134 rushing yards to the Steelers on 25 attempts. If he can’t go, rookie Karlos Williams will get the start.
Given Belichick’s reputation as a tormentor of inexperienced quarterbacks, the Bills will want all the experienced help they can get to aid Taylor. And even if McCoy plays, it probably won’t be quite enough to get the Bills over the top against Brady and the Patriots.
It’ll be close, but a late Scott Chandler touchdown — not the first he’ll have scored in Buffalo, but his first against Buffalo — will be the difference.
Patriots 24, Bills 17.
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