The biggest fantasy football busts of 2015

Peyton Manning – QB – Denver – A perennial Pro Bowl candidate if not All-Pro, Peyton Manning is nonetheless a potential bust at his current fourth-round price. Manning was QB4 last season, but that belies his averaging just 233 yards and a touchdown over his final five games of the season due to nagging injuries. He’s reportedly healthy, but at age 39 and with a surgically-repaired neck, Manning’s days as a top flight quarterback are numbered, if not over.

Drew Brees – QB – New Orleans – Like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees’ quarterbacking chops are above reproach – but he’s a risky selection at his fifth-round ADP. The knock on the Saints’ signal-caller isn’t so much his mileage (though at 36, he’s not exactly a spring chicken) as his depleted arsenal: both deep-threat wide receiver Kenny Stills and red zone monster tight end Julius Thomas are elsewhere in 2015, leaving the diminutive Brandin Cooks, the aging Marques Colston and rookie Brandon Coleman to pick up the slack.

Ameer Abdullah – RB – Detroit – A month ago, Ameer Abdullah’s mid-sixth round ADP had him poised to bring owners a strong return on investment, but training camp buzz and a few impressive runs in the Lions’ preseason game against the Jets have sent him skyrocketing into the early fourth round. With Joique Bell taking some goal-line carries and third-year Theo Riddick looking like the passing-downs back, Abdullah is a big risk at such a price. Any higher and he’s likely to disappoint.

LeSean McCoy – RB – Buffalo – McCoy ran behind one of the best offensive lines in football in 2014 but managed just 4.2 yards over his 312 carries, nearly a full yard down from his per-rush production the season before. Buffalo’s offensive line is a definite step down from Philadelphia’s, and with either EJ Manuel or Matt Cassel at quarterback, Shady is likely to see more stacked boxes than he did alongside Chip Kelly’s top-flight passing attack.

Andre Johnson – WR – Indianapolis – Andre Johnson was one of the most productive receivers in football with Houston’s ragtag group of pass-catchers, so the move to Indy and Andrew Luck should make him a fantasy beast, right? Not so fast. Johnson was the unquestioned no. 1 in Texas until last year but joins a deep group that includes $65 million man T.Y. Hilton, athletic freak Donte Moncrief and first-round rookie Phillip Dorsett, and father time has to catch up to the 34-year-old sometime.

Martavis Bryant – WR – Steelers – With his league-leading 21.1 yards per reception among players with 40 or more targets last season, the Steelers’ Martavis Bryant is one to watch as he enters his second season – but he’s not worth drafting at his mid-sixth round ADP. He caught just 26 of 48 passes sent his way last year and will need a big boost in volume to be worthy of his draft spot, and that’ll be a tough task alongside target hog Antonio Brown and third-year wideout Markus Wheaton, whom Ben Roethlisberger publicly trumpeted earlier this month.

Jimmy Graham – TE – Seattle – Jimmy Graham was the best tight end not named Gronkowski over his years in New Orleans as Drew Brees’ favorite target, but in run-first Seattle, he may not be worthy of his current third-round price tag. Graham has said he expects to do a more lot more blocking than he did as a Saint, and while he’s likely to get more than his share of red zone looks, it’s unlikely he sees the 120-plus targets he saw last season, letalone the 142 he saw in 2013.

Julius Thomas – TE – Jacksonville – Finally healthy in his third season, tight end Julius Thomas helped many an owner win their league as a waiver wonder in 2013 with his 788 receiving yards and whopping 12 touchdowns. His yardage (489) dropped significantly in his second season but the touchdowns (12 again) remained, propping up his value despite declining usage. With Thomas now catching passes from Blake Bortles rather than Peyton Manning, his fantasy value will stall along with the Jaguars’ much poorer offense.