Patriots Free Agents: Keep Him, or On to Another Team?

The Patriots are Super Bowl champions again, and now it’s time to look forward to the offseason and free agency in particular.

Which players should expect to return for the title defense, and which players will be “on to [insert team here]?’’ We took a look at New England’s salary cap situation and impending free agents to find the answers.

The Patriots in a little bit of salary cap trouble at the moment due to the $25 million cap hit on Darrelle Revis as part of the team option for next season. Assuming the Patriots work out a long term deal with Revis and rework Jerod Mayo’s contract ($10.4 million cap hit), they’d quickly get out of the red and have enough cap space to start focusing on other players.

Nate Solder and Brandon Browner have no guaranteed money left on their deals, so they could also be extension/restructure candidates to allot some of their salary into bonuses and free up even more cap space.

The Patriots could also free up cap space by restructuring or releasing Danny Amendola ($5.7 million cap hit for 2015), Kyle Arrington ($4.625 million), and/or Michael Hoomanawanui ($1.58 million) among other players. So they have plenty of options and no in-house free agents are “unaffordable.’’

Here’s a synopsis of notable Patriots projected to hit free agency, as well as what we think they should do.

Darrelle Revis, Cornerback: Keep Him

Revis is one of the top defensive players in the NFL and all signs point to a long term commitment between he and the Patriots this offseason. His poison pill option will hold up offseason plans if no deal can be worked out, but it’d be foolish of New England to let Revis test the market and bring other suitors (namely the Jets) into the picture.

The Cardinals signed Patrick Peterson to a 5-year, $70 million deal last offseason, with $48 million guaranteed. That’s the largest contract ever handed to a cornerback, and Revis could re-set the bar for the position this offseason. The Patriots can’t afford to get cute with it. Pay Revis what he deserves and worry about the rest of the free agent class after.

Devin McCourty, Safety: Keep Him

Can the Patriots afford Revis and McCourty? We say yes. McCourty should command at least $7 million-$8 million per year on his next contract, but given the lack of high-end safeties in the NFL the Patriots would be wise to keep their center fielder.

McCourty is a favorite of the coaching staff and has developed into a leader and defensive captain. It’s hard to pay top dollar to two players in the secondary but it is feasible (Seattle did it last offseason with Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas). Keep Revis and McCourty and build the future of your secondary around those two players.

Dan Connolly, Offensive Guard: On to Another Team

Dan Connolly is another leader in the locker room and a favorite amongst the coaching staff, but he’s also a prime candidate to move on to another team that can and will pay more for his services.

Connolly is 32, and the Patriots have been getting younger across the offensive line since drafting Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming and trading Logan Mankins last offseason. Marcus Cannon also signed an extension and he’s capable of filling in at guard in a pinch.

Connolly will likely get a multi-year deal worth $4 million or more annually on the open market. There’s no doubt he and the Patriots would love for him to stick around, but financially it makes more sense for him to get his payday.

Stephen Gostkowski, Kicker: Keep Him

Gostkowski has been one of the steadiest kickers in the league over his career and the Patriots should find a way to keep him around. The Pats could repeat history and let Gostkowski walk and replace him with someone young and cheap, but what are the odds Gostkowski’s successor will do close to as well replacing him and he once did Adam Vinatieri?

The NFL is experimenting with making extra points harder and with a lack of reliable options across the league it’s smart to hold onto a good kicker if you have one.

Shane Vereen, Running Back: On to Another Team

This decision will be one to keep an eye on, but ultimately Vereen could be playing elsewhere next season. Filling the role of the pass-catching running back in the New England offense, Vereen has a specialized skill set that fits what the Patriots asked of him. He’s also earned some name recognition for his play in the playoffs and will likely be offered an overvalued long term contract in free agency.

It’s rare for running backs to get even a 3 or 4 year contract, but Vereen will likely get that commitment on the open market, and with James White waiting in the wings, the Patriots should use their budget elsewhere (see McCourty, Gostkowski, etc.) and let Vereen go.

Sealver Siliga, Defensive Tackle: Keep Him

A restricted free agent, Siliga won’t turn 25 until April and he’s shown a lot of promise when healthy in New England. Vince Wilfork isn’t getting any younger and having Siliga around would allow the Patriots to manage Wilfork’s snap count and also form a 650+ pound wall when both are on the field together. An incentive-laden contract would be fitting for both sides.

James Develin, Fullback: Keep Him

Develin is popular among his teammates and fills the dying fullback role as well as anyone. As versatile as they come, he was a defensive end in college at Brown University, and has played tight end and special teams for the Patriots. He won’t be very expensive, and Develin is the type of player Bill Belichick loves having on the 53-man roster. He’s also a restricted free agent, so the Patriots can match any offers from other teams.

Alan Branch, Defensive Lineman: On to Another Team

Branch did a nice job filling in on the defensive line after the Patriots signed him midseason, but with Siliga coming back and Dominique Easley back from injury, Branch won’t be worth the money to be buried on the depth chart behind younger players.

Akeem Ayers, Linebacker: Keep Him

Ayers revitalized his career after being traded from the lowly Titan last season, and his ability to pressure the quarterback means he’ll have a role on the Patriots if he opts to return. A 3-year starter in Tennessee, Ayers will surely have an opportunity at more snaps elsewhere, but he seemed to appreciate playing a smaller role on a championship team over being a bigger fish in a smaller pond. Here’s to predicting he takes a little less money to stay.

Jonathan Casillas, Linebacker: On to Another Team

Like Ayers, Casillas found a role on a Super Bowl team after a midseason trade from a bottom feeder. Unlike Ayers, however, Casillas won’t be needed next season with Mayo returning from injury. Between Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, and Jamie Collins, it’ll be tough for any linebackers to see the field without being a specialized player in certain sub packages.

Casillas rebuilt his stock in New England and he’ll get a chance to play more snaps and make more money elsewhere.

Stevan Ridley, Running Back: On to Another Team

Ridley looked like a future star when he ran for 1,263 yards in 2012, his second season as a pro. Fumbling issues and a torn ACL have him all but assured to be elsewhere in 2015. LeGarrette Blount is the hammer running back in the offense and with Brandon Bolden, Jonas Gray, and James White coming back, there isn’t room on the roster for Ridley. He’ll likely get a one or two-year deal elsewhere and try and get his career back on track.

Danny Aiken, Long Snapper: On to Another Team

It’s hard to assess the value of a long snapper, but the Patriots did cut Aiken and leave him available for a week while they sorted out their 53-man roster last preseason. If he were that indispensable, they wouldn’t have taken the chance.

It’s hard to imagine the Patriots handing a new deal to Aiken instead of signing a replacement for the league minimum. New England has more important contracts to worry about and can save a few bucks here by letting Aiken go.

Chris White, Linebacker: On to Another Team

White contributed on special teams and played in 13 games last season, recording 7 tackles. He’d be a roster-bubble player if he were to return, and he won’t be a huge priority to re-sign. Another team with less linebacker talent will offer him a better opportunity.

Brian Tyms, Wide Receiver: Keep Him

Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell aren’t going anywhere, but Tyms (a restricted free agent) is worth holding onto. He showed great chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo last preseason and contributed a bit on special teams when he got the chance. With Amendola’s future in New England in flux and Aaron Dobson struggling to make an impact, it’s worth it to keep Tyms around and see if he can crack the receiver rotation.