Patriots Hoping to Avoid Buffalo Bills, Revolution Comparisons – Colts-Patriots Prediction Roundup

The New England Patriots can make history on Sunday, but nobody in these parts wants to hear about it.

If the Indianapolis Colts can find a way to beat the favored Patriots in Sunday’s AFC Championship game at Gillette Stadium, it will put New England in Buffalo Bills territory.

Only the Oakland Raiders, from 1974-76, have lost three straight AFC title bouts since the game’s inception in 1971. With a loss Sunday, the Patriots would become the first team in NFL history to lose the game to three different opponents, three consecutive years (Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Colts). The Raiders lost to the Miami Dolphins in 1974, Pittsburgh Steelers in 1975 and ’76.

Coincidentally, that would cement Gillette Stadium as the “close-but-no-cigar” capital of the American sports landscape along with Bob Kraft’s Major League Soccer entry. The New England Revolution, of course, fell to the Los Angeles Galaxy in last month’s MLS Cup, the franchise’s fifth defeat in the league’s title game.

Then again, there is some history that New Englanders are hoping for as well.

A win over the Colts would send the Patriots to their eighth Super Bowl appearance, tied for the most in NFL history with the Dallas Cowboys and Steelers. Tom Brady would be making his sixth start in the game, breaking a tie with John Elway for the most Super Bowl appearances by a quarterback (A Super Bowl win would also tie him with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for the most rings ever with four). Bill Belichick would be coaching in his sixth as well, tying Don Shula atop the list of head coaches with multiple appearances (A win in Glendale would give Belichick four rings, tying Chuck Noll for the most in NFL history).

Either way, the Patriots have a little bit of infamy in store for them on Sunday.

The picks

Our roundup of nationwide picks for Sunday’s Colts-Patriots AFC Championship game.

ESPN.com staff: Eleven out of 12 pick the Patriots. Merrill Hoge is the lone soul picking the Colts.

Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 34, Colts 23. “Aside to Colts fans who enjoy sending me angry emails and may have further cause with this prediction: I harbor no dislike for Indianapolis; on the contrary that wicked shrimp cocktail at St. Elmo’s is delish! It’s simply that your Colts are (by a lot) the weak link of this NFL Final Four and will show it in the AFC Championship Game. New England is a particularly bad matchup for Indy. In the two most recent meetings the Pats won in last year’s playoffs 43-22, then whomped the Colts again in Week 11 this season 42-20 – with 480 rushing yards in those two games. Andrew Luck is 0-3 vs. the English, with eight interceptions and a 67.7 passer rating. Overall the Nags have dropped five in a row in this series and allowed Tom Brady’s Pats an average of 41.2 points en route. Want more? Darrelle Revis will neutralize Luck’s best target, T.Y. Hilton. Indy’s own best corner, Vontae Davis, is questionable with a knee injury. And the deactivation of Colts linebacker Josh McNary this week after a rape allegation can’t but dishevel the team’s mindset a bit. Quick fact: Brady and Bill Belichick aim to reach their sixth Super Bowl together. The only QB/coach combos in as many as four were Roger Staubach/Tom Landry, Terry Bradshaw/Chuck Noll and Jim Kelly/Marv Levy. One more. Did I mention New England has won 17 of its past 18 home games? But don’t feel too bad, Hoosiers. Y’all still lead the league in shrimp cocktail.”

Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com: Patriots 31, Colts 27. “In the first meeting the Patriots ran it right at the Colts in a blowout victory in Week 11. They lined up with an extra offensive lineman on a majority of snaps and powered it right through the Colts defense. But the Colts defense is better now up front. Running it on them won’t be nearly as easy. The Indianapolis secondary is playing well, too. But they don’t have a great pass rush, which is why Tom Brady will have success throwing it around — especially to Rob Gronkowski, who has three touchdowns in the past two games against the Colts. On the other side, Andrew Luck will present a heck of a challenge for the Patriots defense, which wasn’t great last week against the Ravens. Luck has struggled in three games against New England, and he hasn’t been great on the road. But he was impressive last week against the Broncos, even with two interceptions, and he is capable of getting as hot as any quarterback in the league. For that reason, I think he will keep his team in this one for a while. Sometimes the hot team keeps rolling, but not all the way. I think New England is too good and Brady is lethal at home. That continues with the Patriots earning their way to the Super Bowl — this time behind Brady’s arm, not the run.”

John Breech, CBSSports.com: Colts 27, Patriots 24. “Including the playoffs, the Colts went 12-1 this season in games where they rushed for more than 90 yards and 1-4 in games where they went under. If the Colts ground game is working, that means Brady is not on the field and if Brady is not on the field, then the Patriots aren’t going to put up more than 40 points like they have the last two times these teams have played.

I like the hot team and the Colts have been hot in the playoffs, winning each of their first two games by double digits. The only team in the past five years to win a wild-card game and divisional game by double-digits in the same season was the 2011 Giants. I’m guessing Patriots fans probably remember that team.

As long as Chuck Pagano memorizes the rule book and every legal offensive formation by Sunday, I think the Colts can pull off the upset.”

CBSSports.com staff: Seven out of eight pick the Pats straight up. Five pick New England against the spread (-6.5, Patriots).

ESPN Boston.com staff: All Pats. Tedy Bruschi picks New England by a 34-21 score: “This game will be closer than their regular season meeting (a 42-20 win by the Patriots), but not by much. Last week was a wake-up call for this Patriots team. I see the Bryan Stork injury being a significant change in what the Patriots do offensively. I see Tom Brady utilizing quick throws from the pocket with the occasional shot down the middle of the field off of play action to Rob Gronkowski. I’m an honorary captain of the game with Ty Law and Troy Brown. We will be sitting in the box with Mr. Kraft and I look forward to watching this team punch their ticket to Arizona.”

Yahoo sports: Split.

Peter Schrager. Foxsports.com: Patriots 33, Colts 21. “Guys like Lance Louis, Joe Reitz, and Jack Mewhort are by no means household names, but perhaps they should be. All three have stepped up and joined Khaled Holmes and Anthony Castonzo in forming one of the better front fives of the postseason. All those high-priced free-agent acquisitions the Broncos signed to get Peyton Manning over the hump? They were silenced by this cast of castaways and young guns on Sunday. I don’t expect that to stop.

But I also don’t expect Tom Brady to suddenly slow down. Indianapolis is on the cusp of greatness, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if the Colts leave Foxborough with a win on Sunday night. I just don’t see it happening. Not this year. And, oh yeah, I had the Patriots winning the AFC back in August, too. Not turning away now.”

Foxsports.com staff: Four out of six go with the Pats.

Key and Peele, Comedy Central: Split (I think).

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

: Patriots 31, Colts 27. “The Patriots have run over the Colts (literally) in the past two meetings. Both last year’s divisional playoff thrashing and this year’s beatdown in Indianapolis had similar feels and similar scores: 43-22, 42-20. They’ve done it with different running backs rumbling for 200 yards, LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. This third game, however, will be more about Tom Brady.

Expect the Colts to be overfocused on the run, committing extra men and attention to it. That of course will set up the game to be in Brady’s hands. Expect the Patriots to counter with a downfield passing game that uses big Rob Gronkowski and smaller Julian Edelman in the middle of the field, a plan that avoids the Colts’ strengths at cornerback. They also will know to keep pushing through the air, because Andrew Luck is about to shake off much of his past failings against Bill Belichick’s defense.”

David Steele, Sporting News: Patriots 31, Colts 27. “Tread lightly when tempted to draw conclusions about this game based on their last two meetings. For starters, the Colts last week in Denver didn’t even look like the same team that took forever to put away the Bengals in the wild-card round, much less like the team that the Broncos handled on opening night in Mile High. The confidence they showed on both sides of the ball against a loaded opponent in hostile conditions will serve them well in Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots, meanwhile … who knows. They used LeGarrette Blount as a battering ram in their playoff win over the Colts last year, then did the same with Jonas Gray in a rout in Indianapolis in November. Then, of course, they beat Baltimore last week by calling eight running plays all night. (Tom Brady scrambled for a touchdown once and kneeled down four times, for the official total of 13 rushes.) They also dusted off Julian Edelman for an option pass , and a back-ineligible formation that freaked John Harbaugh out . Bill Belichick is in full mad-scientist mode this year. Unless he’s not, and goes fully conventional this week.”

Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 30, Colts 23. “Somewhere, perhaps lodged in a hairball straight from Andrew Luck’s beard, lies the blueprint for beating the Patriots. Of course, not even Luck’s facial hair, which has gone from an Abe Lincoln special to straight-up Grizzly Adams, can distract from his blemished lifetime record against New England: 0-3. Luck wasn’t the reason Indy prevailed in Denver last week — or why John Fox will no longer be disagreeing with John Elway — but he is capable of putting the Colts on his back. Hopefully for him, he won’t have to, because if the Indy defense — the real driving force behind the Colts’ Divisional Round win — repeats its performance from last Sunday, this interesting matchup will become anybody’s game. Even-steven.

First, though, the Colts must keep Rob Gronkowski out of the end zone. The Patriots tight end has scored five times in four career games against them. T.Y. Hilton must catch more than three balls for 24 yards — Hilton’s line from Indy’s Week 11 loss to New England — against Darrelle Revis. (I don’t see Brandon Browner matching up with Hilton’s speed.) Speaking of New England’s defense, I anticipate the Pats mixing coverages more than trying to blitz Luck. The first time Belichick faced the Colts’ phenom, New England blitzed the kid 17 times. Hey, Luck was a rookie quarterback … why not pressure him? In last season’s divisional matchup, though, the Patriots blitzed him just eight times. Then, back in November, Luck had 43 dropbacks — and New England blitzed a scant seven times.

Ultimately, I think Belichick and Co. play this game relatively straight, with a little more LeGarrette Blount sprinkled in than there was in last week’s win over the Ravens. And the Patriots will make the bearded kid beat their coverage without the gimmes that unsuccessful blitzes bring.

After typing all that while listening to the music from “The Natural,” I realize I haven’t yet mentioned Tom Brady’s name. Tom Brady. There you go.”

NFL.com staff: Four out of five pick the Patriots.

Neil Greenburg, Washington Post: Pick: Patriots. Win probability: Patriots 80.5 percent. “Most of the hype surrounding this game is around the quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck, but this game is more lopsided than it might look. According to the Simple Rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule, the Colts are a one-trick pony.

Ninkovich pressured the quarterback 51 times plus made 19 stops on the run. He will be tasked with blocking the fullback when Luck decides to scramble to his left and making sure no one is open in the backfield behind him. When Ninkovich dropped back into coverage, opposing quarterbacks had a 99.8 passer rating against him.

Boston Globe staff: All Pats (New England by 7).

It says here: Patriots 37, Colts 24. Is this the Patriots’ last, best shot to win a Super Bowl with Tom Brady at the helm? Maybe, but not because the quarterback is getting older or Darrelle Revis may depart in the offseason. Instead, we may be watching the Colts mature their way into becoming a perennial participant in the AFC title game the way we’ve become so accustomed to watching New England assume the role.

But not this year.

Not yet.