Wind Chill Non-Factor: Weather Won’t Determine Whether the Patriots or Ravens Win on Saturday

Do you know why the Patriots have such a great home playoff record? Because they are good. The Boston Globe - The Boston Gl

By Michael Gee

January 9, 2015

3 minutes to read

The National Weather Service forecast for Foxborough calls for clear skies and a temperature of around 20 at Gillette Stadium by the 4:30 p.m. kickoff of the divisional playoff game between New England and Baltimore on January 10th.

That’s just about the exact weather conditions that prevailed at Gillette for a playoff game on January 10, 2009. Temperature at kickoff was 20, with a wind chill of eight. Final score: Ravens 33-Patriots 14. It was 10 degrees warmer in Foxborough one year later but still below freezing when the Jets upset the Pats 28-21 to end New England’s season in the divisional round.

Are these portents of coming disaster? Not at all. I would be startled to near shock if Baltimore wins on Saturday. Teams with patchwork secondaries of dubious merit are not ideally equipped to beat the Patriots at Gillette or anywhere else. Those weather reports were cited because every year when the Pats have home field advantage, the fallacy is propounded that climate is an integral part of the New England game plan. It is believed in many quarters that our January weather is uniquely horrible, making the Pats a literal force of nature against their chilblained opponents.

It just ain’t so. The idea the Patriots are more used to bad weather and so better able to perform in it, as argued by none other than Brady earlier this week, comes from the sports section of the “Old Farmer’s Almanac.’’ It’s an edge that doesn’t exist for a team that creates all the edges it needs on its own. The 21st century Patriots have a 13-3 home playoff record because they’re one of the great teams in NFL history. If they win Saturday, it’ll be for the same boring reason they win on balmy September afternoons – playing better than the other guys.

January in eastern Massachusetts IS horrible, but not uniquely so. It’s pretty horrible for much of the United States, including many places with NFL teams of their own. Ever been to Baltimore in January?

Few journey there for outdoor recreation. For the record, the second-coldest Patriots playoff win in the Belichick years was their victory in the 2004 AFC Championship Game at Pittsburgh.

There is also a significant difference between weather that’s terrible for watching football and for playing it. Ask Brady if he’d rather play on a dry 15 degree day or in a windy 50-degree rainstorm and he’ll opt for the former. Fog or a blinding snow squall can disrupt the delicate choreography of an offense. Cold, unless of the freakish 10-below nature, cannot. Yes, cold makes collisions hurt a bit more.

But the players just don’t stand around in it for three hours. Even the Chargers are well equipped with cold weather gear for the sidelines including those adorable striped stocking caps.

The coldest Patriots playoff game this century was the 2003 contest with the Titans, won by New England 17-14. It was four degrees at kickoff with a minus-10 wind chill. I covered that game for the Herald. Over a decade later, what I remember best was how both teams played at a very high level of execution. There were only two turnovers in a grim, close battle dominated by two excellent defenses, one of which came up three points more excellent. Afterwards, no player I talked to on either side mentioned the weather at all.

The myth that winter contributes to New England’s home success in the playoffs stems directly from the two times Peyton Manning and the Colts were beaten at Gillette in 2003 and 2004. In the first game, Manning was wretched, throwing four interceptions. In the second, he was better, but the Colts were outrushed 210 yards to 46. Each time, the temperature was around 30-32, with occasional snow, unpleasant but hardly miserable. May I suggest that the New England defense of that time was responsible for Manning’s woes, not his alleged susceptibility to the elements?

The most conclusive evidence that the Polar Vortex is not destiny in the playoffs comes not from Foxborough but from the town supposed to offer the ultimate winter home field advantage, Green Bay.

In Aaron Rodgers’ career as Packers quarterback, his playoff record on the artificially heated tundra of Lambeau Field is 1-2, and in the 2010 season when the Packers won the Super Bowl, they played all three playoff games on the road.

As noted. I expect the Patriots to beat the Ravens. I expect the Broncos to beat the Colts on Sunday, too.

I’m sure that will lead to a week of Manning hates the cold nonsense in this city and all across the USA.

If New England frustrates Manning yet again, Darelle Revis will have a lot to do with it. Harvey Leonard won’t.