Let’s Play a Little Fact or Fiction, NFL Playoffs Style

Having repeatedly played their best in the biggest games, Terrell Suggs’ Ravens are the 1B of the AFC. EPA

By Jeremy Gottlieb

January 5, 2015

7 minutes to read

Wild Card weekend has come and gone and we certainly learned quite a bit from the four games played on Saturday and Sunday. So as we start contemplating the divisional round and all the stakes that come along with it, here’s a round of Fact or Fiction, NFL playoffs style.

FICTION: The Steelers would have won if Le’Veon Bell had played

It certainly didn’t help Pittsburgh that its best, most dynamic player couldn’t go. Having to rely on a third-stringer and a dude you signed off the street 10 minutes ago to handle the focal point of your offense usually doesn’t wind up working out. The Steelers were one-dimensional and without having to worry about Bell, the Ravens handled Antonio Brown without having to worry about the other receivers and could take advantage of Pittsburgh’s not so awesome offensive line.

But it was the Steelers’ defense that killed them. The Ravens converted one big third-and-long after another, Joe Flacco had eons to stand back there, be patient and make throws and there were so many bad, ill-timed penalties. All that plus too many field goals instead of touchdowns in the first half and the Steelers were doomed.

Bell’s presence may have changed the complexion of the game somewhat and forced the Ravens’ defense to play differently. But he wouldn’t have been able to do a thing to help his own team’s D. The Steelers have been morphing into a more finesse-type team over the past two or three years, moving away from their long time reputation as a tough, grinding, defense-first group. That showed in a big way in the loss to Baltimore, leaving Bell, if he’d played, helpless to stop it.

[fragment number=0]

FACT: The Bengals will never get any better if they don’t get rid of Marvin Lewis

The Bengals lost to the Colts 26-10 on Sunday, which makes Lewis 0-6 for his career in the playoffs. That’s a record. He’s been on the job in Cincinnati for 12 years (the only coach currently enjoying a longer tenure in the same spot is Bill Belichick) and never once advanced past the first round. The Bengals’ offensive output in those six losses — in order — goes like this: 17, 14, 10, 13, 10, 10. Home, away, night, afternoon, grass, turf, whatever. If the Bengals are in the playoffs, they’re not going to win, having not done so for 25 years.

[fragment number=1]

[fragment number=2]

In their defense, a slew of important players missed Sunday’s loss due to injury including top receiver A.J. Green and middle linebacker Ray Maualuga, who started but hurt his hamstring and didn’t finish. But the Bengals always lose in the playoffs even with their best players 100 percent healthy. The common denominator is Lewis, which is why if the Bengals’ organization is interested in achieving goals beyond simply making the playoffs year after year (which, admittedly, plenty of other teams would kill to do), it had best move on.

FACT: The Cardinals didn’t lose just because of their crappy, third-string QB

He certainly didn’t help even remotely, but Ryan Lindley, forced into action due to the injuries sufered by Arizona’s first two quarterbacks, was just one item on a list of reasons why the Cardinals’ once very promising season is already over.

Ace return man Ted Ginn Jr. ran a kickoff out from eight yards deep in his end zone, got popped at the 8-yard line and fumbled. The Panthers recovered at the 3 and scored on the next play.

Arizona punter Drew Butler let fly six punts that traveled less than 40 yards including two that went for 20 and 28 respectively.

There were multiple big plays allowed on defense — one of which was a 39-yard TD on a screen pass — seven penalties committed and just three of 12 third downs converted.

Oh and Lindley passed for just 82 yards on 28 pass attempts (!!!), threw two picks deep in Carolina territory and directed an offense that gained an NFL playoff record low 78 total yards on 47 plays.

So while he was definitely a (big) reason the Cardinals are dunzo, Lindley wasn’t the only one.

[fragment number=3]

FICTION: The outcome of the Colts/Bengals game mattered

Both of these teams are so flawed that the minute Baltimore beat Pittsburgh to set up its meeting with the Patriots, the result of next weekend’s other divisional matchup became academic.

As much trouble as the Broncos have had — both on defense and at quarterback — over the past month, there’s no way the Colts (or the Bengals had they… ahem… won) are going into Denver and winning. Andrew Luck is very, very good but he’s not yet ready to pull that kind of a monumental upset on the road. The Colts’ receivers dropped plenty of passes in Sunday’s game and the offense as a whole settled for too many field goals which would have had them in big trouble had they been playing a competent opponent and not Cincinnati. And their defense, while good enough to handle an offense led by a quarterback like Andy Dalton at home, is nowhere near good enough to beat Peyton Manning on the road no matter how diminished he is. The AFC Championship Game will feature Denver against the winner of Ravens/Pats.

FICTION: The Cowboys/Lions matchup was a great game

It was exciting. It came down to the final minute and had enough twists to make you feel like it was a great game.

But what it really wound up being was a battle of wills between two teams notorious for not winning big games in the most simultaneously hilarious and excruciating ways possible. It was the Derpy Bowl.

This was just the second playoff game won by Dallas since its last Super Bowl in 1995. And the Lions, bless their poor fans’ hearts, have still won but one single, solitary postseason game since 1957. One.

Both teams did their best to blow it. The Cowboys came out flat despite finally making it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2009, made a ton of mistakes, couldn’t capitalize on plenty of opprotunities and have a quarterback in Tony Romo who doesn’t seem to know that it’s OK to just throw the ball away when two massive defensive linemen are bearing down on you 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage and you have a broken back.

And the Lions, who looked like a title contender in the first half, seized up in the second, making mistakes on defense and not finishing drives despite a very strong peformance from quarterback Matthew Stafford. Watching the game on TV, it just felt like whoever didn’t have the chance to screw up in the end would win.

Of course, the Cowboys benefited mightily from one of the more controversial, bizarre calls (or non-calls) you will ever see, particularly in the playoffs. And the Lions can add that to their long list of postseason gloom.

[fragment number=4]

FACT: The winner of Ravens/Pats is going to the Super Bowl

The happiest team in all the playoffs not residing in Dallas has to be the Broncos. If the Steelers had won on Saturday night, they’d be headed to Denver this Sunday with Bell, who wasn’t declared out of the matchup with the Ravens until the afternoon before the game, a better shot to play. Coming into the playoffs, the Steelers seemed to be widely considered the second-best team in the AFC after the Pats given how prolific their offense is with Bell intact alongside the Broncos’ issues. Denver doesn’t match up that well with Pittsburgh, the Steelers’ mediocre defense notwithstanding, and everyone knows what a tough time Manning has in the playoffs even when he’s healthy. Playing an unbalanced team with a QB who’s not quite there yet is a much a better scenario for the Broncos. They’re thrilled that they will get the chance to lose in the AFC Championship Game as opposed to adding yet another one-and-done to Manning’s resume.

Meanwhile, the Ravens look exactly like the team that came into Saturday night having won five straight playoff games — including a Super Bowl — and came within a horrific missed field goal from possibly adding to that total.

[fragment number=5]

They’re just a different team in the playoffs, which is why all this talk about how they aren’t as talented as they were back in 2011 and 2012 is nonsense and how the only team with a winning record they’ve beaten since Week 2 is the Steelers is irrelevant. Head coach John Harbaugh may have been high when he said Flacco is the best quarterback in football but he’s still a tremendous coach who knows how to prepare his teams for big games. And Flacco can really play when he’s not just lobbing up 50-yard parabolas and waiting for the inevitable penalty flag.

These are the two best teams left in the AFC. The Pats have a great defense, an all-time QB and a game-changing tight end not to mention an enormous homefield advantage, as we know. The Ravens have that postseason win streak, a bunch of guys who have won a Super Bowl and two wins along with that near-miss of a third in Foxborough in the postseason. Should they win this Saturday, there’s little doubt they’ll handle Denver even on the road.

In other words, buckle up. Cowboys/Packers should be a great game. But Ravens/Pats will be one. And even the players know it.

[fragment number=6]