Which Potential Opponent Should the Patriots Fear the Most?
The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend, but the Patriots won’t be taking part in the games, as their No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs earned them a first-round bye.
Still, there is plenty to watch for Pats fans this weekend, as one of the teams playing will earn a trip to Foxborough on Jan. 10 to play the Patriots in the AFC Divisional round.
Any one of the Colts, Bengals, or Ravens could be playing the Pats in the second round; here’s a look at each of the Patriots’ possible opponents.
Indianapolis Colts
How They Got Here: The Colts started the season 0-2 – albeit in offensive shootouts with the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles – before rattling off six wins over their next seven games to head into the bye week 6-3. Coming out of their bye, the Colts defense was pounded on the ground by the Patriots, led by Jonas Gray, who had a breakout 201-yard, four touchdown performance in a 42-20 Pats win.
The Colts rebounded after that loss, however, winning all but one game the rest of the year. They wrapped up their second straight AFC South title with a 17-10 win over the Houston Texans in Week 15. As the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs, the Colts will play the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round; a win and a Steelers win over the Ravens would send the Colts to New England for a Divisional round rematch with the Patriots.
Regular Season MVP: Andrew Luck
Luck was one of the best offensive players in the NFL this season, finishing third in the league with 4,761 yards, while throwing a league-leading 40 touchdowns. He did also throw 16 interceptions – two behind Philip Rivers for the most in the NFL – but with a weak running game that finished with the 10th lowest rushing total, Luck was the leader of the Colts offense that finished sixth in points scored.
Playoff History vs. Patriots
The Colts and Patriots have played four times in the playoffs, with three of those matchups coming in a four-year span from 2003-06, when Tom Brady went 2-1 against Peyton Manning, with the winner of all three games going on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts and Pats didn’t meet again in the postseason until last year, when the Andrew Luck-led Colts came to Foxborough in the Divisional round. That game was highlighted not by Brady or Luck, but by LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns, while Luck was picked off four times in a 43-22 win by the Patriots.
How They Could Win: Luck Needs to Take Care of the Ball
If the Colts would want to win this matchup, it would have to come from their quarterback being less careless with the football. Turnovers have been the Achilles’ heel of the Colts this season, with Luck himself being responsible for 28 of their 31 total giveaways. Turnovers have been key for the Patriots in their past two wins over the Colts, as Luck has been intercepted five times, so if the Colts would have any chance of beating the Pats, it’s up to Luck to make better decisions and keep the ball away from Tom Brady.
Cincinnati Bengals
How They Got Here: The Bengals got off to a strong start this season, opening the year 3-0, with some calling them the most complete team in football. That came crashing down in Week 5, however, as the Bengals were outmuscled by a Patriots team that had started 2-2 and hadn’t been able to establish an identity over the first four weeks. The Bengals then tied the Panthers and were shut out by the Colts over the next two games before finally winning again Week 8.
Going into Week 16, the Bengals were in danger of missing the playoffs if they dropped their final two games – both prime time matchups. The Bengals were able to clinch a playoff spot – and eliminate some of their prime time demons – with a 37-28 win over the Broncos on Monday Night Football, but dropped the season finale to the Steelers and had to settle for a No. 5 seed as Pittsburgh took the AFC North and the No. 3 spot.
Regular Season MVP: Jeremy Hill
The rookie running back out of LSU came into the season second on the depth chart behind sophomore Giovani Bernard, but when injuries forced Bernard from the lineup, Hill took the opportunity and ran with it. Hill’s breakout game came Nov. 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when he rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns. He would rush for triple digits five times in this season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring nine touchdowns, becoming the unquestioned lead back for the Bengals over the past three weeks and heading into the playoffs.
Playoff History vs. Patriots
Of the three teams the Patriots could host in the AFC Divisional round, the Bengals are the only one the Pats have never played in the postseason.
How They Could Win: Stopping the Pats Tight Ends
In their first matchup of the season, the Patriots used a mountain of motivation after the team – and Tom Brady – was highly criticized following their 41-14 blowout loss to the Chiefs six days earlier. The Bengals were powerless to silence the Pats’ tight end duo in that game, as Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright combined to haul in 11 passes for 185 receiving yards and two touchdowns. With Julian Edelman missing two games with a concussion and Brandon LaFell nursing an injured shoulder, the Bengals could put themselves in a position to beat the Pats if they could shut down Gronkowski and Wright.
Baltimore Ravens
How They Got Here: After missing the playoffs last season for the first time in quarterback Joe Flacco’s career, the Ravens looked to get back to the postseason in 2014. Their road wasn’t the easiest, however, as all four teams in the AFC North were jostling for positioning throughout the season, with the division ultimately providing half of the AFC’s playoff field. The Ravens were still on the outside looking in entering Week 17, as the San Diego Chargers were in the driver’s seat to win and clinch a playoff spot. But the Kansas City Chiefs did the Ravens a favor, knocking off the Chargers and allowing the Ravens to make the playoffs after beating the Browns.
Regular Season MVP: Justin Forsett
After the release of Ray Rice before the regular season, the Ravens had a big hole in their running attack and had to find someone to fill it. The Ravens tried out Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro as lead back at times, but it was Forsett who emerged as the front runner and became one of the league’s most consistent rushers this season. Forsett rushed for 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns on the season, while also recording 263 receiving yards. His 5.4 yards per carry led all running backs this season, and his ability to open up opposing defenses was a major factor in the Ravens being able to return to the playoffs.
Playoff History vs. Patriots
The Pats-Ravens playoff history is one that Patriots fan would probably rather forget. The two met for the first time in the postseason in 2009, when the Ravens came to Foxborough for the Wild Card round and handed the Patriots one of their most embarrassing playoff losses. The Ravens outscored the Pats 24-0 in the first quarter, while they intercepted Tom Brady four times en route to a 33-14 victory in the Pats’ first one-and-done showing in the Brady-Belichick era.
The Patriots beat the Ravens in the 2011 AFC title game, but only after a last-second defensive play by Sterling Moore and a botched chip shot field goal by Billy Cundiff failed to send the game to overtime. The Ravens would have their revenge the next season, as they turned a 13-7 halftime deficit into a 28-13 win, shutting out the Pats over the final 30 minutes to win the AFC crown at a stunned Gillette Stadium.
How They Could Win: If Injuries Derail the Patriots Starters
The Patriots as they’re currently constructed should have no problem with the Ravens. Their balanced offense and solid defense should give them the edge over the Ravens. Baltimore does have a history of playing the Pats tough in the postseason, and those memories are sure to spook some Patriots fans, but this Patriots team is much better and more complete than any of the ones the Ravens played in the past. If the Pats can remain in full health throughout the game, then the Ravens shouldn’t be a stopping point in the Patriots advancing to their fourth straight AFC title game.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com