How Can The Patriots Avoid A Slip-Up En Route to AFC’s No. 1 Seed?

There are only three games left in the regular season, and the New England Patriots (10-3) have nearly clinched a playoff spot, but their margin for error is still razor thin. That’s because the Denver Broncos (10-3) and Indianapolis Colts (9-4) are hot on their tail in the race for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Patriots hold a head-to-head tie-breaker over both teams, so both would need to finish with a better record in order to edge New England out of one of those two coveted spots in the divisional round.

In short, the Patriots’ playoff destiny rests in their own hands.

The margin for error gets even slimmer when you consider that the final three games are against AFC East rivals, all of which tend to give the Patriots a tough time whenever they butt heads. That being said, the Patriots have faced all three of their division opponents already this season, so they can learn from what happened the last time around and apply it to each upcoming matchup.

The Patriots should be the favorite in all three games, so here’s what they can do to ensure that they don’t fall on their faces on the way to a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Week 15, vs. Miami Dolphins:

The Dolphins are having some of the same problems in 2013 as they had in 2014, but for different reasons. The 2014 Dolphins are the 2013 Patriots, hit by major injuries on both sides of the ball.

It starts with the offensive line. Left tackle Branden Albert has been on injured reserve since November 10. Guard Mike Pouncey missed the first meeting with the Patriots, but right tackle Dallas Thomas has been asked to fill in, with rookie Ja’Wuan James playing on the left side, and the results have been disastrous. According to stats website Pro Football Focus, Thomas has let up six sacks this season, and the offensive line as a whole has allowed 34.

The Patriots were able to put pressure on Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the first meeting, and did so largely without a heavy pressure scheme, but they had a front seven at full strength. If the Patriots are going to pick up the win, look for big games from defensive ends Rob Ninkovich and Akeem Ayers.

The Dolphins’ defensive front has been their strength, with the pair of defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon providing a combined 16 sacks. But if the offensive line can buy some time for Tom Brady, he could be able to find some mismatches in the secondary. The Dolphins have been hit with injuries to cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder), and linebackers Jelani Jenkins (foot) and Koa Misi (hamstring/knee).

The Patriots could probably exploit their matchups over the middle with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright, who was virtually a non-factor in the last meeting due to his inexperience in the offense.

Week 16, at New York Jets:

The Jets have been a disaster this season, with a nine-game losing streak after winning their season opener. It all starts at the quarterback position, as it usually does in New York, where head coach Rex Ryan has already gone back-and-forth on his starters this season. Geno Smith started Weeks 1 thru 8, then Michael Vick started Weeks 9 thru 12, and Smith has been the starter again ever since then.

Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered. The Jets’ offense has been inept no matter the player behind center. Their offensive line has been a weakness as well. They are running the ball well with running back Chris Ivory, but the line has allowed 41 sacks of this season (tied for fourth-most in the NFL). The Patriots will have to bottle up the running game, but their pass rush should be able to tee off.

They have some talent at the skill positions, with wide receivers Eric Decker, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Kerley. The Jets traded for Harvin after Week 7 meeting with the Patriots, so this will be New England’s first time facing off with Harvin in a Jets’ uniform.

Much like the Dolphins — but for different reasons — the Jets’ defensive line is a strength and their secondary is a weakness. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and Damon Harrison have been a huge part of the Jets’ top-five run defense (87.4 yards per game ranks fifth, 3.5 yards per rush attempt ranks fourth). The defense has only generated 33 sacks, though, which has exposed the lack of depth in the secondary. They’ve been hit by both injury (cornerbacks Dexter McDougle, Dee Milliner, and Antonio Allen) and their own offseason inaction. Whether Tom Brady has time or not could be the difference in this game.

Week 17, vs. Buffalo Bills:

The Bills are a prime example of why the quarterback position is so important. They have talent at nearly every other position on the roster, save for the offensive line, but none of it matters without a talented quarterback.

The Bills have some talented skill position players in the likes of wide receivers Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Chris Hogan, as well as tight end Scott Chandler. A fierce pass rush would go a long way to keeping the Bills’ offense in check. The Patriots’ defensive front had a strong showing the last time these two teams met, with a total of five sacks by Rob Ninkovich (three), Chandler Jones, and Deontae Skinner (one apiece).

On defense, the Bills have once again been a pass-rushing force behind the star-studded group of defensive tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams flanked by defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams. Last year, Hughes and the two Williams’ registered 10 sacks or more; this year, Mario Williams and Dareus are already at or above double-digit sacks, with Hughes in striking range at 9.5.

It doesn’t seem to matter who the defensive coordinator is; whether it’s Mike Pettine last year or Jim Schwartz this year, the defensive line has been on a feeding frenzy in the opponent’s backfield. The Patriots offensive line will have to be on its A-game if New England’s offense is going to get things going. They yielded two sacks last time around, one each to Hughes and Mario Williams, but that’s not bad against a defense that averages 3.7 sacks per game.

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