Best Bets Week 11: The Lucas Oil Stadium Showdown
Welcome to Week 11 of BDC Sports’ Best Bets – the battle in Lucas Oil Stadium edition – a weekly presentation by Steve Silva and Chris Rattey that looks at a few NFL match-ups that you might want to think about laying some dough on this weekend.
Silva is coming in white-hot after a flawless 5-0 mark in last week’s Best Bets. Rattey maintained his .+500 status with a second 3-2 showing in a row. So the both appear to be rolling. But how long will that last? Anyone’s guess, really. Check out the Podcast version of Best Bets with the RadioBDC crew at the bottom of the article.
Silva record last week: 5-0 (27-11 overall)Rattey last week: 3-2 (22-15-1 overall)
Now on to the picks …
Rattey Pick 1: @ Browns [-3] over Texans The Skinny: After screwing me a few weeks back by somehow falling to the Jaguars, I’m making a visit back to the Dawg Pound. Browns first-year coach Mike Pettine has the chance to grab hold of the competitive AFC North with a win today at home, which would be the fourth in a row for Cleveland. The last time that happened? In 2009 when first-year head coach Eric Mangini (remember him?) lead the 1-11 Browns to a 5-11 mark by winning the last four games. The Browns are 3-1 at home ATS, and will play with fire on Sunday. Houston gives up a ton of total yards (almost 400 per game, good for 28th in the NFL), especially through the air. The Texans are kind of a mess with Ryan Mallett taking over the helm and first-pick wonder Jadeveon Clowney liking ladies on Instagram during team losses instead of playing through a little knee injury. Kids these days …
Silva Pick 1: @ Browns [-3] over Texans The Skinny: Have to have some action on the Brady Backup Bowl, right? I’ll take experience over the unproven in this contest where the Brown’s Brian Hoyer – who’s thrown 10 TD passes to go against 4 picks – takes on the Texan’s Ryan Mallett, who will be making his first NFL start after having thrown just four passes in his pro career. In the turnover game, the Browns are plus-6 in the last three weeks and the defense should put a lot of pressure on the unproven Mallett and the 28th-ranked passing offense in the league. Cleveland is looking to win four straight for the first time since their 5-11 2009 season. The last time the Browns led their division this late in the season was back in 1994 when Bill Belichick was their head coach. One fear with this pick is that the Texans are bringing the league’s 4th best running attack (137 yards per game) against a Browns defense that gives up over 134 yards per game. So Arian Foster could run wild if he’s recovered from a groin injury suffered against the Eagles. Being at home with the Dawg Pound behind could be the difference-maker here.
Rattey Pick 2: Broncos [-9.5] over @ Rams The Skinny: The Rams have had their share of good games this season, knocking off San Fran on the road in week 9 and taking care of Hapless in Seattle in the dome week 7. They also played Philly and Dallas tight, but surprisingly hold a lousy 1-3 record ATS at home. Denver should come in and wallop a defense that surrenders a close-to-league worst 28 points per game. On the flip side, the St. Louis offense is near the bottom of the NFL in points and yards. This is a clear mismatch, and Peyton Manning and the 7-2 Broncos still have plenty of work to do to keep ahead of the pack for that all-important playoff bye. You know what I’m saying, Peyton? Remember a couple weeks ago? Of course you do.
Silva Pick 2: @ Colts [-3] over Patriots The Skinny: If the Patriots can handle Peyton, how can Andrew Luck beat them? With the most explosive offense in the league, that’s how. The Colts – 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games — lead the league in scoring at 32.2 points-per-game and they love playing at home. Luck – an MVP candidate who is on the verge of breaking the league record for passing yards in a season — has a lot of weapons at his disposal, having thrown touchdown passes to eight different receivers this season. Look for budding superstar T.Y. Hilton to get the best of Darrelle Revis in a one-on-one matchup. And while Luck doesn’t have a Rob Gronkowski at his disposal, the tight end situation is not too shabby with Dwyane Allen and Coby Fleener with 11 TD catches between them.
Indy’s defense is not as bad as advertised. The last time they took the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, they completely dismantled the Bengals to the tune of 27-0. If they blitz, Brady is sure to find Gronk in the open field. The weak backfield, ranked 27th in opposing passing yards, will be put to the test on deep balls for sure, but cornerback Vontae Davis is healthy and can help solidify the soft backfield.
The Patriots may be 30-3 in the second half of the schedule since 2010, but more recently, they’re 4-7 in their last 11 road games and Tom Brady is 3-11 on the road in his last 14 games against winning teams. What I’m worried about most with this pick is that, according to Marc Lawrence of Vegasinsider.com, the Colts are 1-14 ATS as home favorites against the Patriots.
Rattey Pick 3: @ Cardinals [-1] over Lions The Skinny: My darling Lions have been flirting with me all week … again. I think Stafford just threw me a wink, and I swear Megatron grabbed my ass. But I’ll let it go, and just blame it on a crowded room. But I just can’t do it this week, Lions. There’s a new lady in my life, and she goes by the name of Zona. The Cardinals are tied for the league’s best record ATS at 7-2, including an impressive 4-1 mark at home. Detroit’s been winning with its defense and Stafford has been ripping horseshoes from his rear at a jaw-dropping rate to keep Detroit atop the NFC at 7-2. But this week the luck runs out in Phoenix. The Cardinals are close to the best in the NFL against the run, the Lions have zero running game, so the D will be prepared for Stafford. It will be a close one, and fun to watch, but it’s a basic pick-em and I like the home team in this one.
Silva Pick 3: @ Saints [-7] over Bengals The Skinny: The Bengals defense is letting teams score in bunches, and that’s just what the Saints love to do at home with Drew Brees firing the ball all over the fake turf. New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham looks like Jimmy Graham again and young wideout Brandin Cooks continues to raise eyebrows with his play, as the first-round draft pick is tied for the lead for receptions among rookie receivers. The Saints ground game has been solid as well with Mark Ingram going over 100 yards in the last three contests. Cincy QB Andy Dalton is quickly going down the drain, throwing five picks to go with just two TDs in the last two games. According to Marc Lawrence at Vegasinsider.com, Sean Payton’s Saints – who lost a rare home contest to the 49ers last week — are 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS playing at home after a SU loss since 2008. New Orleans is 10-0 SU and ATS in in last 10 non-division games in the Superdome. The Bengals 3-8-1 in their last 12 road games, BUT the Stripes are 4-0 ATS vs. New Orleans in last four meetings.
Rattey Over/Under Special: Eagles at Packers over [55] The Skinny: Double nickels general means to pack up your wife and kids, grab the canned goods, and head for the bunker. I generally steer well clear of what should be shootouts and spreads over 50. But these two offenses are so exciting to watch, I don’t see how this game doesn’t creep into the 30s for each club. The Eagles and Packers are 4th and 5th respectively in scoring, and combined average 30.9 points and 381 total yards per contest. Both teams defenses are fairly average in numbers, Philly with the edge, and both offenses should find enough holes to keep the scoring fast and furious at Lambeau Field. Forecast calls for 30-degree temps and clear skies. Non-factor. It’s shoot-out time.
Silva Over/Under Special: Bengals at Saints over [44.5] The Skinny: Can either of these teams play defense when it counts? I’m not counting on it and look for this matchup to go over in the Superdome. Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack is putting up 304.78 yards per game. But this game won’t go over on passing alone. The Saints have a great opportunity to get their No. 5 rushing offense in gear behind Ingram as the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in the league in run defense. For Cincinnati, Dalton has to improve on his disastrous performance against the Browns last week and find A.J. Green – who caught only three passes last week — and/or Mohamed Sanu in the endzone to help run up the score. The total has gone over in five of the last six games for the Saints and in four of last five games in the Superdome.
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Rattey: Patriots [+3] over @ Colts The Skinny: After watching Ben Roethlisberger dismantle that awful Colts defense a few weeks ago (don’t believe that Bengal-smothering hype, Silva), I just don’t see how Indianapolis can stop the Patriots offense with Rob Gronkowski in full Transformer mode. The Patriots have made a couple big statements in a row, but a road victory on the national stage is the next obvious step in a season that looks to be shaping into a legitimate quest for a fourth Belichick-Brady Lombardi trophy. I realize Andrew Luck is the top gunslinger in the league with the numbers to prove it. And he will put up impressive figures and the Colts will put up points, but they won’t be able to match the Patriots production. Take the points, baby. TAKE EM!
Silva: @ Panthers [+1] over Falcons The Skinny: Home dog, just barely. Actually two dogs in this game. Both the Falcons and Panthers have underwhelmed in the woeful NFC South this season, but somebody’s gotta take Sunday’s game. I’m looking for the struggling Cam Newton and the No. 25-ranked offense to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks No. 24 in the NFL and has allowed a league-high 280.8 yards per game. Tight end Greg Olsen has been a beast and Kelvin Benjamin has been able to catch deep balls. The duo has combined for 12 touchdowns. The Falcons defense has also allowed 150 yards per game rushing on the road. And the Newton may also be able to pick up yards on the ground himself if he can get back to being the speedy, punishing running QB he’s been in years past. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Panthers – although having lost four straight — are 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 home games. At the end of the day, the pathetic Panthers are better at home than the floundering Falcons have been on the road.
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