How the Pats Can Down the Colts on Sunday
What a difference a week makes in the NFL.
On Oct. 19, the Indianapolis Colts defense was riding high, having just shut out a Cincinnati Bengals team that just a few weeks earlier had been called the “best team in the NFL.’’
Then, a mere seven days later, they were absolutely lit up, completely dominated by Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers, 51-34.
The Colts were able to grab a win the following week, albeit against Eli Manning and the New York Giants, but coming off their bye week they are staring at a matchup with a Patriots team that just demolished Eli’s brother before an off week of their own.
Although the game is in Indianapolis and the early lines have the Colts favored by three points, the Patriots can leave Lucas Oil Stadium with their eighth win this season in a variety of ways. Here’s a look at how a few of them could come to pass.
1. Tom Brady Throws for 500 Yards
If Big Ben could do it Week 8, there’s no reason that Tom Brady wouldn’t be able to do the same come Sunday. Roethlisberger’s franchise-record 522 passing yards were distributed to nine different receivers, with five of them – Antonio Brown (133), Heath Miller (112), Martavis Bryant (83), Le’Veon Bell (56), and Markus Wheaton (56) – each gaining over 50.
Brady has shown in the past few games that yes, he does have the tools to make this offense work. Rob Gronkowski is just as dangerous as ever, Julian Edelman is the same reliable option he’s been for the past two seasons, and Brandon LaFell has emerged as a legitimate threat through the air. Throw in the catch-and-run capabilities of Shane Vereen and balance it with runs by Vereen and Jonas Gray and the Pats can keep the Colts defenders on their heels and unable to catch their breath.
The Colts have given up the sixth-most yards per game this season; Brady and the Patriots needs to take advantage.
2. Use the Running Game
The Colts defense hasn’t just been weak through the air; they’ve struggled stopping the run as well. While the Colts yards per game allowed isn’t terrible (98.1), it’s because teams simply haven’t run against them since they’ve been able to so easily pass (the Colts’ 199 rushing attempts defended is the second fewest in the league).
When looking at the yards they give up per attempt, the results are more showing. Their 4.4 yards per attempt is tied for the seventh-worst in the NFL. In their last game against the Giants, the Colts gave up 89 yards on 20 attempts, with the Giants gaining an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
With Stevan Ridley’s season-ending injury Week 6, the Patriots turned to trusted Shane Vereen and rookie Jonas Gray to pick up the slack. In his first start, Gray took off, running for 86 yards on 17 carries against the Chicago Bears. He took a step back against the Broncos, totaling 33 on 12 attempts, but look for the Pats to try and utilize Gray more as a downfield runner, whereas Vereen works best on draw plays and cutting around defenders.
3. Control Turnovers
One of the Patriots strengths over the years has been their ability to use turnovers to their advantage by racking up turnovers of their own and limiting their opponents’ chances at getting the ball. The Patriots are the current league-leaders in that category, tied with the Arizona Cardinals at +12 in takeaway ratio. The Pats have lost just three fumbles this season, while Tom Brady has thrown just three interceptions. Their defense has come up with 10 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and eight fumble recoveries.
The Colts are much lower on the spectrum, tied for 14th with an even turnover ratio. As a team, the Colts have recovered nine fumbles and had six interceptions, while they’ve lost six fumbles themselves and Andrew Luck has thrown nine picks. This area is clearly advantage Patriots, and if the Pats can get the ball out of Luck’s offense and into their own, they’ll be sitting pretty.
4. Gronk Goes Off
Since the Patriots 2-2 start where Rob Gronkowski was still getting his football legs under him from the injuries that ended his 2013 campaign, the Patriots tight end has been an absolute monster. In the past five games, Gronkowski has totaled less than 90 receiving yards just once, has averaged 103.2 yards per game, and has five touchdown catches. His 663 total receiving yards this season is the most of any tight end and the 13th most of any pass catcher in the league.
As was seen time and time again over the last three seasons, the Patriots championship hopes live and die on the status of Gronkowski: a healthy Gronk, and the Patriots are hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants. Same could be said in their past two failed trips to the AFC title game.
Gronkowski is a game-changer, there’s no doubt about that, and if he can get going and be at his full Gronk-self on Sunday against the Colts, there may be no stopping the Patriots air attack.
5. Defense Shuts Down Andrew Luck
Let’s chalk this one up as the least likely, considering how well the young quarterback has played this year, the game being in Indy, and the Colts coming off a bye. But it is possible and can be done, as the Pats proved last year in their AFC Divisional round game against the Colts. In that game, the Pats forced four turnovers from the Colts QB, and while they gave up 331 yards through the air, their bend-don’t-break approach helped them win the game.
Luck’s play has been nothing short of remarkable this season. His 3,085 passing yards and 26 touchdowns are the most in the NFL, while he also has the added skill of making plays with his legs. But the Patriots have shown this year that they can stop an elite quarterback: just ask Peyton Manning. The Denver QB threw for over 400 yards, but the Patriots were able to frustrate him all afternoon en route to their blowout win over the Broncos before the bye. If the Pats can do the same to Luck, they’ll leave Indy at 8-2 with six games to play in the regular season.
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