Patriots Will Face Challenging Postseason Percentages With an 0-2 Start

It feels like the Patriots are ripe for a loss Sunday in Minnesota.

Granted, if they play the way they did during the second half last weekend in Miami, New England is going to lose 98 percent of the time. But the Patriots head into their Week 2 matchup against the Vikings with serious holes and concerns that have to have Adrian Peterson and company itching to get started.

After allowing 191 rushing yards to the Dolphins, the Pats now have to turn around and face only the best runner in the NFL in Peterson.

At one point, Vince Wilfork was arguably the premier run-stuffer in the game, but these days looks more like a heavy-set Barbapapa on the defensive line, where he was straight-out embarrassed during a Knowshon Moreno touchdown run last Sunday. Switching concerns to the patchwork offensive line, it’s important to note that the Vikings defense came up with five sacks against the St. Louis Rams in their 34-6 victory to open the season. That’s one more than Miami had against the Patriots, whose offensive line looked more like a mark of confusion than a unit in which Tom Brady should have the utmost trust.

If the Pats fall to 0-2, it will be the first time the franchise has started a season winless in its first two games since 2001, and things generally turned out OK that year. But there’s also nothing like counting on an outlier.

Consider that since the NFL went to its current playoff format in 1990, 196 teams have started a season 0-2. Twenty-three of those teams eventually made the playoffs. That’s fewer than 12 percent.

You have to go back to Weeks 2-3 of the 2012 season for the last time the Patriots have lost two games in a row. After waltzing past the Titans in Week 1, 34-13, New England fell to the Cardinals, 20-18, the game in which Stephen Gostkowski’s 42-yard game-winning field goal attempt went wide left. The next week it was a 31-30 heartbreaker in which Justin Tucker kicked a 27-yard game-winner, burying Baltimore memories of Billy Cundiff in the process.

There would be a rematch four months later, of course, in the AFC title game, another reminder that a dreadful start in September doesn’t bury a season, no matter what the percentages say otherwise.

Who they’re picking

Our roundup of picks for this week’s Patriots-Vikings game.

Will Gordon, Boston.com: Vikings. “Look, we all saw what we saw. Maybe Brady bounces back a bit, but the inability of the short passing game to exploit the fact that the Dolphins played most of the game with a linebacking corps made up entirely of back-ups was a pretty grim sign. Brady was even bailed out by Julian Edelman, aka the human 2nd-and-6, hauling in a gorgeous 44 yarder; that’s not going to happen again before the first snow day. Adrian Peterson is going to rush for a 180 yards, and the Vikings are going to win.”

ESPN.com staff: Ten out of 13 pick the Patriots.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Vikings 20. “The Patriots are playing consecutive road games, and they are almost in a must-win early in the season. The Vikings looked good on defense last week against the Rams, but this is Tom Brady on the other side. Minnesota counters with Matt Cassel. Enough said.”

Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 27, Vikings 23. “Minnesota was very impressive last week, and one can only imagine what Adrian Peterson might do against the Patriots run defense after watching Miami gouge it in Week 1. (Here comes the “but.”) But New England hasn’t started 0-2 since 2001. The Pats, under Tom Brady, are 33-8 following a loss, and that includes 28-13 against the spread. Bounce back is what this team does, and I’ll be surprised if they don’t here in making Bill Belichick the sixth coach to 200 wins.”

CBS Sports.com staff: Six out of eight pick New England.

Yahoo sports: Picks are split.

USA Today staff: Patriots across the board.

Foxsports.com staff: Four out of seven go with New England.

Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk.com: Vikings 24, Patriots 20. “The Vikings haven’t beaten Tom Brady in three tries. Last year, coach Mike Zimmer ended Brady’s passing-touchdown streak at 52. The Vikings could christen their temporary home in memorable fashion, applying pressure early and often to Brady and finding ways to navigate a defense that’s no better than the St. Louis defense the Rams solved last week.”

Michael David Smith, ProFootballTalk.com: Patriots 27, Vikings 17. “No team looked better than the Vikings in Week One, especially Cordarrelle Patterson, who’s a star in the making. And yet I just can’t see the Patriots opening with two straight losses. Bill Belichick will have the right game plan to stop his old quarterback Matt Cassel, and Tom Brady can’t possibly play as badly this week as he did in Miami last week.”

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 30, Vikings 24. “To ensure they do win, watch Brady let loose a little more to jump ahead in a duel with his former ace backup, Matt Cassel. Belichick’s main charge will be getting the defensive ship righted before facing a loaded Minnesota offense. We’ll see if their focus on taking away Adrian Peterson above all else pays off.”

Elliot Harrison, NFL.com: Patriots 26, Vikings 21. “The key will be how much time quarterback Matt Cassel receives in Minnesota, and whether the Vikes’ pass rush will get to Tom Brady. This just in: Brady > Shaun Hill > Austin Davis. On the flip side, will defensive linemen Sharrif Floyd and Linval Joseph be able to clog lanes to keep New England’s attack from gaining any balance? I expect Bill Belichick to run the rock after last week’s terrible 20:60 run-pass ratio. I’m putting faith in that offense. And we need to see Cassel perform at a high level two weeks in a row.”

SB Nation staff: Six out of seven pick the Patriots.

Neil Greenberg, Washington Post: Vikings. “The Vikings had a 100-yard rusher, but it wasn’t Adrian Petersen — it was wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, who ran for 102 yards and a score. However, expect a bounce-back game for New England cornerback Darrelle Revis, who wasn’t great but did limit the Dolphins receivers to just two yards after the catch when in coverage.”

Boston Globe staff: Four out of six pick Minnesota (New England by 3.5).

It says here: Vikings 27, Patriots 20. Just can’t ignore the issues on the offensive and defensive lines after the bad taste the Patriots left in Miami. New England will have to wait for its first win of the season in the home opener.