Stats over/unders for the 2013 Patriots season

Entering the last few seasons, one of the safest bets in football was to pencil in the Patriots to win 12 or more games and have one of the league’s top offenses. But projecting the numbers for Tom Brady & Co. in 2013 isn’t so easy. After a tumultuous offseason, Brady is down his top weapons, and there are questions as to how well the team will perform on his side of the ball. The defense also remains a work in progress. We scoured the web for individual and team projections and came up with a few of our own. In the slides ahead, vote on whether you think the Patriots will go over or under those marks.

Aaron Dobson: 673 receiving yards

The Patriots used a 2013 second-round pick on Dobson. That’s a big investment at that position for this team, and normally a first-year receiver would have some time to get his feet wet. But without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and possibly Rob Gronkowski, Dobson will be thrust into a bigger role. CBSSports.com projects Dobson for 673 receiving yards (that’s 42 yards per game) and 5 touchdowns.

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Snaps at quarterback for Tim Tebow: 0.5

Tom Brady is the starter. Ryan Mallett is the backup, and Tim Tebow is the No. 3 quarterback. If Brady stays healthy, Tebow shouldn’t see the field, right? Will the Patriots actually use him for specific formations?

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Danny Amendola: 94 catches

Last season, Wes Welker caught 118 passes from Tom Brady. Amendola is expected to fill Welker’s role, but can he be the same player? Can he stay healthy all season? CBSSports.com projects Amendola for 94 catches.

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Rob Gronkowski: 10 touchdowns

Coming off back surgery, Gronkowski is not expected to start in Week 1, but he could return soon after. Last season, Gronkowski had 11 touchdowns in 11 games. The season before that, he set the NFL record for tight ends with 17. Without knowing how many games he’ll miss, CBSSports.com projects Gronk for 10 touchdowns, the same as Saints stud Jimmy Graham.

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Yards for all other Patriots tight ends combined: 450

With Gronkowski questionable to start the season and Hernandez out, Michael Hoomanawanui, Zach Sudfeld, and Daniel Fells could take the bulk of the snaps at tight end. Gronk is projected for more than 900 yards himself. Can the rest of the crew, combined, total half that?

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Receivers/tight ends with a catch: 10.5

The Patriots should keep about six receivers on the 53-man roster, with Amendola, Dobson, Kembrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Josh Boyce, and Matthew Slater the most likely candidates. Add to that the four tight ends, and that’s 10 guys. The Patriots also could add wideouts or tight ends with roster moves later in the year. Last season, 10 Patriots wide receivers and tight ends caught at least one ball.

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Touchdowns for Stevan Ridley: 11.7

Why the weird number? CBSSports.com projects Ridley for 11.7 touchdowns this season. He had 12 last season.

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Running backs on the roster: 3.5

This one applies to the start of the season. Ridley and Shane Vereen are locks, with Brandon Bolden (pictured), LeGarrette Blount, and Leon Washington all competing for spots.

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Tom Brady: 34 touchdown passes

Brady is projected for 34 touchdown passes this season after throwing 34 last season. That’s a dropoff of exactly zero, despite almost an entirely new receiving corps.

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Devin McCourty: 5 interceptions

McCourty led the Patriots with five interceptions last season, showing signs that a move to safety was the right one. He should be a lock to start all 16 games if healthy.

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Chandler Jones: 6 sacks

Chandler Jones added 10 pounds to his impressive frame in the offseason. He had 6 sacks last season and looks to improve on his standing as the team’s top pass rusher.

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Defense: 20.7 points allowed per game

The Patriots ranked ninth in the NFL last season allowing 20.7 points per game (yardage was the problem, not points allowed). With another year to come together, the defense could improve.

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Wins: 11.5

Some books in Las Vegas have set the over/under for the Patriots at 11.5 wins. A recent ESPN The Magazine story predicted the Patriots to go 9-7. The Patriots have won 11 or more games in six of the last seven seasons.

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