Until you lose what you had won
Quick programming note: I’ll be joining Chris Forsberg and perhaps a couple of the other usual suspects for a live blog/chat during the Patriots-Jets showdown this afternoon. We had a lot fun with these last year and received a lot of positive feedback, so be sure to check in right around kickoff.
As for the game . . . to be honest, I’m not quite sure what to make of it. Conventional wisdom, at least among the Peter Kings of the world, is that the Jets, who are determined to justify their glib, over-the-top cockiness, will give the Patriots a tough time tomorrow.
There’s plenty of evidence through the years that conventional wisdom and common sense don’t always intersect when it comes to the prognostication skills of supposed NFL pundits, but I can’t shake the feeling that the pro-Jets crowd might be onto something with this one.
I just haven’t been able to convince myself that this is the best matchup for the Patriots’ offense so early in the season — and so early in Brady’s return from his knee injury. The Jets’ defense is designed to be a duplicate of the decorated group Rex Ryan coached in Baltimore — quick, fierce, aggressive — and the Patriots’ offensive line played too much of Monday night’s opener against the Bills in reverse.
The Jets have yapped this week that they will get their shots in on Brady, and despite my best efforts at rationalization, I believe them. I’d like to think the Patriots have a shrewd plan to turn the Jets’ frenzied, trash-Tweeting approach against them — a dose of Faulk, heaping helping of Welker? — but the Patriots will have to be much more polished and efficient than they were in first 55 or so minutes Monday night.
Defensively, it’s not about who’s playing, but who isn’t. Jerod Mayo, the bright and gifted second-year linebacker who’s already the captain and centerpiece of this remodeled group, is out for a month, maybe two, with a knee injury. Adalius Thomas and Gary Guyton should be capable of handling the chores in the middle of the field, but neither is as adept at or as deeply prepared for the role as Mayo. Given that the Jets feature one of the most dangerous third-down backs in the league in pesky Leon Washington, this might not be the best week to be without the anchor of your defense.
I realize I’m probably howling too much here about the Patriots’ supposed issues. Make no mistake, they’re still the superior team. I’m fairly confident that Brady, Moss and friends will get their points, even if the Jets deliver a few bruises en route to the end zone. The Patriots defensive backs, a deeper and far quicker group than the 2008 crew, shouldn’t have too much trouble containing the Jets’ mediocre receivers. Maybe they’ll even provide a hint as to why Pete Carroll thought Mark Sanchez made a mistake by turning pro.
Ultimately, I believe it comes down to the coaches — isn’t that always the fallback around here when we’re concerned? — and I just don’t believe Belichick loses this one. Hate is an overused word, but I have no qualms with saying Belichick hates the Jets, dating back, of course, to when they portrayed him as some combination of Sybil and Benedict Arnold after he jilted them and decided not to follow Bill Parcells as the HC of the NYJ way back when.
As if he ever needs additional motivation, this is the last game he’ll ever coach at the Meadowlands, the site of some of his greatest early triumphs during his time as the Giants’ defensive mastermind. It’s meaningful, sentimental day for Belichick.
Not that I’m suggesting this is a total coaching mismatch. Belichick seems to have some genuine respect for Ryan’s knowledge if not his approach, and the Jets were surprisingly disciplined against the Texans last week. I actually kind of like the guy; his all-in-good-fun approach is considerably more appealing than that of his weaselly and dour predecessor, Eric Mangini.
But I’d like to think that in this case, Ryan’s affable bluster will have turned to regret sometime before 4 p.m this afternoon.
I’ll let you know when I can convince myself of as much.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com