Who experts are picking to win the NCAA Tournament
An NCAA bracket is a frightening thing. All those blank spaces. All those Lipscombs and Wright States and other teams you would struggle to name a single player on.
Fortunately, there is no shortage of experts, self-proclaimed and otherwise, with advice to guide you to all the winners. Here’s a roundup of selections from people in a position to know.
The New York Times
Marc Tracy and Zach Schonbrun have circled a few upsets, notably No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 Clemson, No. 13 Marshall over No. 4 Wichita State, No. 11 Loyola-Chicago over No. 6 Miami, No. 10 Providence over No. 7 Texas A&M, and No. 11 San Diego State over No. 6 Houston.
“After a 31-year NCAA Tournament drought, Marshall beat the former Cinderella Middle Tennessee State to close the regular season, then held off a late comeback by Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. The Herd say they play “Hillbilly ball,” which means they spread the floor, run and take as many 3-pointers as possible. Sound familiar, NBA fans? Did we mention that the coach, Dan D’Antoni, is the brother of the Houston Rockets’ coach, Mike? Also, Wichita State’s defense is not what it used to be, and that will be a problem.”
While the Times doesn’t actually predict that No. 16 Penn will upset No. 1 Kansas, it says the game is worth watching.
“The Quakers won the Ivy League, which had a down year but is still a more formidable conference than No. 16s typically come from; are expert at defending the 3-pointer; and are coached by Steve Donahue, who took Cornell to the round of 16 several years ago.”
ESPN
Jay Bilas of ESPN has established himself as one of the most prominent college basketball experts in the country. Oklahoma, who some had seen as a bubble team, was on his mind:
“We probably should’ve known Oklahoma was going to get in. The committee had them 16th in their reveal, which is crazy town. The committee revealed they thought more highly of Oklahoma than anyone who was watching. They weren’t close to the 16th best team when it was all said and done. It’s almost unjustifiable.”
Bilas picks a 3 seed, Michigan State, to win it all, as did two other ESPN notables, Dick Vitale and Seth Greenberg, perhaps surprising since MSU will probably have to beat Duke and Kansas just to make the Final Four.
Fivethirtyeight.com
The site is cautious in its picks, selecting just three first-round upsets: No. 10 Texas over 7 Nevada, No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas, and No. 9 Florida State over No. 8 Missouri. It is picking No. 4 Gonzaga to upend No. 1 Xavier in the Final 16.
But Five Thirty Eight is known for producing probabilities, not just straight picks. It is worthwhile when constructing your own bracket to know that while No. 1 seed Villanova has a 50 percent chance of making the Final Four, Virginia is at 47 percent, Kansas at 31 and Xavier at only 18.
SB Nation
Alex Kirshner circles four lower-seeded teams and says one or two will pull off the upset. Those are No. 12 Davidson over Kentucky, No. 12 New Mexico State over Clemson, No. 12 Murray State over West Virginia and No. 11 San Diego State over Houston.
He also says No. 15 Lipscomb could stun North Carolina:
“A 15 seed beats a 2 about once every two or three years. The last was Middle Tennessee against Michigan State in 2016, and we’re coming due for another shock soon. Lipscomb — from the same Atlantic Sun that spawned Sweet 16 No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 — is another potential chaos team. The Bisons love to run, and they enter the tournament ranked No. 5 nationally in adjusted tempo. They haven’t played anyone like North Carolina, obviously, but another Lipscomb strength has been defensive rebounding. Given that the Heels’ best strength is their offensive rebounding, this one’s worth monitoring.”
Bleacher Report
Kerry Miller ranks all 68 teams in order, from Villanova to North Carolina Central.
“Villanova has no ceiling. It’s just a question of how long the Wildcats can go without having a bad shooting night, and whether that happens to coincide with a subpar defensive effort. When they won the title in 2016, they only had one poor performance from the perimeter, but they defended like mad to beat Kansas in that game. There’s no reason they couldn’t do it again.”
Ken Pomeroy
Like many others, Pomeroy has Villanova and Virginia at the top of his list. He also has No. 2 Duke over Kansas and No. 2 North Carolina over Xavier.
For first round upsets, he likes No. 10 Butler (56 percent chance to win), No. 10 Oklahoma (slightly more than 50 percent) and No. 9 Florida State (51 percent).
Jeff Sagarin
Another computer ranker, Sagarin, also has Villanova and Virginia 1-2.
The Athletic
Those V teams dominate the selections at the Athletic also, with three of five picking Virginia and two Villanova to win it all.
Amazingly, four of the five like No. 12 New Mexico State not only to beat No. 5 Clemson, but also No. 4 Auburn and make the Final 16.
Sporting News
Want a winner a little more “off the wall” than Villanova or Virginia? Nick Birdsong picks No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Michigan to make the Final Four, and then has No. 4 Arizona beating all of them, thanks to freshman Deandre Ayton.
CBS
A roundup of eight selectors assembled by CBS finds three selecting a No. 2 seed, Duke, to win in all and two going for Villanova, with one each for Virginia, North Carolina and Michigan State.
Josh Nagel, a SportsLine analyst said:
“I think Duke has the best starting five in the country, and the most balance since it last won the title in 2015. Duke appears to have a manageable road, since Kansas has overachieved but I don’t see the Jayhawks as a real title contender. Of course Duke has to avoid foul trouble, fatigue and serious injuries. But Blue Devils appear to be the toughest out in a single-elimination format, and I’d like their chances against any team from the opposing brackets in the final.”
Vegas odds
In Las Vegas, the lines are up, and most books are settling on Villanova as the early favorite. But Duke is favored in the Midwest, not Kansas, and No. 3 Michigan is the top pick in the West, not No. 1 Xavier or No. 2 North Carolina.
The better seeds are the favorites pretty much across the board, as you might expect, with just one clear exception. No. 10 Butler is a 1-point pick over No. 7 Arkansas.
Believe it or not, some confident folks have already filled in their brackets. Over at Yahoo, these early birds have tabbed a couple of upsets: No. 10 Texas (56 percent of them) and No 10 Butler (54 percent). In later rounds, the group likes No. 2 North Carolina to make the Final Four rather than Xavier. The most popular pick to win it all is Virginia (25 percent) followed by Villanova (17 percent) and then second-seeded Duke, perhaps following the well-known theory “Duke always wins.”
The most popular teams at Yahoo, by seed: 1, Virginia, 2. Duke, 3. Michigan State, 4. Arizona, 5. Kentucky 6. Florida, 7. Arkansas, 8. Missouri 9. NC State, 10.Texas 11. Loyola Illinois, 12. New Mexico State 13. Marshall 14. Stephen F. Austin 15. Georgia State 16. Penn.
There are almost as many opinions out there as there are tournament permutations. But only two brackets matter in the end: the one you fill out and the correct one.
