Morning Sports Update

Here’s a list of 2025 Patriots predictions from beat writers and national analysts

Experts foresee an improvement, but maybe not quite enough for a playoff spot.

Mike Vrabel Patriots
Mike Vrabel practices with K'Lavon Chaisson ahead of the start of the 2025 Patriots season. John Tlumacki/Boston Globe

Some Patriots predictions: The 2025 NFL season has arrived, with the first game (Cowboys at Eagles) set to kick off on Thursday evening at 8:20 p.m.

The Patriots get underway on Sunday against the Raiders (1 p.m.) at Gillette Stadium. With a new head coach and a large amount of roster turnover, it will be a new beginning for New England.

Trying to assess how things might go for the Patriots this season is tricky, with back-to-back 4-13 seasons still looming in recent history, but with a sense of optimism permeating the current roster.

Here’s a quick rundown of record predictions from Patriots beat writers as well as national analysts:

Boston Globe

  • Chad Finn: 9-8
  • Christopher L. Gasper: 8-9
  • Christopher Price: 7-10
  • Dan Shaughnessy: 7-10
  • Tara Sullivan: 8-9
  • Ben Volin: 8-9
  • Nicole Yang: 8-9

Boston Herald

Andrew Callahan: 9-8

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Doug Kyed: While Kyed didn’t provide a specific record prediction (which fits within the context of the Herald’s preview), he did not pick New England as a playoff team: “It would be fun to see the Patriots make a playoff push in 2025, but it seems one year too soon. The Patriots made major upgrades, but they still seem a year away from truly contending.”

MassLive

  • Mark Daniels: 8-9
  • Karen Guregian: 9-8
  • Matt Vautour: 8-9
  • Chris Mason: 8-9
  • Lauren Campbell: 8-9
  • Jim Pignatiello: 9-8

NBC Sports Boston

  • Tom E. Curran: 8-9
  • Phil Perry: 9-8

NFL.com

Cynthia Frelund: Using historical data, interviews with experts, and “simulations [that] included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game,” Frelund (an NFL Network analytics expert) predicted the fractional win totals of each team. For the Patriots, she reached the final verdict of 8.8 wins.

ESPN

Like NFL.com, ESPN released its analytics-based predictions for each NFL team:

  • Chances to make the playoffs: 30.5%
  • Chances to win division: 13.1%
  • Projected wins: 7.9

Trivia: Over the last 50 years, the greatest single season win increase that the Patriots experienced was eight from 1975 through 1976. After going 3-11, Chuck Fairbanks’s team responded with a successfully inverted 11-3 campaign the following season. What player led the ’76 Patriots in interceptions?

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(Answer at the bottom).

Hint: A rookie first-round pick that season, he went on to make nine Pro Bowls and eventually be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Scores and schedules:

The Red Sox lost 8-1 to the Guardians on Wednesday.

Tomorrow, Boston begins a three-game series in Arizona at the Diamondbacks. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m.

More from Boston.com:

Trophy talk: Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski made some picks of their own ahead of the 2025 NFL season in an extremely scientific and orderly way.

On this day: In 1999, the Red Sox defeated the Mariners 4-0 behind Pedro Martinez’s eight brilliant innings, resulting in 15 strikeouts. Martinez notched his 20th win of what would be a Cy Young Award-winning season. A home run from Nomar Garciaparra, and RBIs from Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, and Jose Offerman provided all the run support Martinez would need.

1999 Pedro Martinez Boston Globe

Daily highlight: Masashi Wada skipped past his defender to score a nice goal in Portland Hearts of Pine’s 3-2 win on Wednesday.

Trivia answer: Mike Haynes

Hayden Bird

Sports Staff

Hayden Bird is a sports staff writer for Boston.com, where he has worked since 2016. He covers all things sports in New England.

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