What experts are saying about the 2018 Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The horses for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby are listed in order of post position, with comments by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. The morning-line odds were set by Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs.
Purse: $2 million guaranteed
Distance: 1-1/4 miles
Track record: 1:59 2/5 (Secretariat, 1973)
Weight: 126 pounds
Post time: 6:46 p.m. Eastern
How to watch: NBC, beginning at 2:30 p.m. NBC Sports Network coverage runs from noon to 2:30. Coverage will also be streamed on NBC Sports Live.
Joe Drape’s win-place-show picks: Bolt d’Oro, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy
Melissa Hoppert’s picks: Good Magic, Justify, Hofburg
— Here’s how we see the field:
1. Firenze Fire
Trainer: Jason Servis Jockey: Paco Lopez Odds: 50-1
Drape: An awful post for a horse that has been overmatched all year.
Hoppert: Sure, he beat Good Magic in 2017, but his last victory came at Aqueduct in January. Plus, that post. Pass.
2. Free Drop Billy
Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado Odds: 30-1
Drape: This late runner looked promising as a 2-year-old, but he has failed to move forward.
Hoppert: His last victory came in 2017. He’s going the wrong way.
3. Promises Fulfilled
Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie Odds: 30-1
Drape: You will see him in front early and nowhere late.
Hoppert: He pulled an upset in the Fountain of Youth but then finished ninth in the Florida Derby.
4. Flameaway
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano Odds: 30-1
Drape: A gritty colt who has won on dirt, grass and synthetic surfaces. He’s going to win a lot of races, but not this one.
Hoppert: He’s hit the board in seven of nine starts. But this field is deep.
5. Audible
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 8-1
Drape: His Florida Derby victory was eye-catching, and he has worked well in Kentucky. Don’t leave out.
Hoppert: Post 5 has produced the most Derby winners, with an 11.4 win percentage. The last? Pletcher’s Always Dreaming. Hard to bet against that, but work done on his front hooves makes me pause.
6. Good Magic
Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz Odds: 12-1
Drape: There’s too much chatter about how good last year’s 2-year-old champion is looking. Those juicy odds may drop precipitously.
Hoppert: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has been working lights out here, which has his normally stoic trainer smiling from ear to ear. Hopefully at a nice price, that’s good enough magic for me.
7. Justify
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith Odds: 3-1
Drape: This talented colt is trying to do what Bodemeister, Curlin and others have not been able to do since 1882: Win the Derby without racing at 2. I’ll take history.
Hoppert: The favorite has won the past five Derbys, but the Santa Anita Derby winner has Apollo’s curse looming over him. Then again, as has been overheard many times this week, he could just be a freak.
8. Lone Sailor
Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham Odds: 50-1
Drape: This closer might just clunk up for third or fourth place.
Hoppert: The Louisiana Derby runner-up is light on wins (one in eight starts), but he has been drawing some buzz in the mornings.
9. Hofburg
Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Odds: 20-1
Drape: Neither owner nor trainer are the kind to push a lightly raced colt like this one into this deep of water unless he was talented.
Hoppert: A long-shot with plenty of upside: a Hall of Fame trainer, blueblood connections in Juddmonte, a second-place showing in a top prep, the Florida Derby, and solid efforts during training.
10. My Boy Jack
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Odds: 30-1
Drape: My boy is named Jack. In 2005, three months after he was born, Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1. From this post. I will not make that mistake again.
Hoppert: I knew Drape would have a special place in his heart for the third-place finisher in the Louisiana Derby. He has 10 starts, most among a somewhat inexperienced but extremely talented field, but he’s overmatched.
11. Bolt d’Oro
Trainer: Mick Ruiz Jockey: Victor Espinoza Odds: 8-1
Drape: He is fast, seasoned and has never run a bad race. He is sitting on a big one. Oh yeah, Espinoza has won this race three times. Here’s your winner.
Hoppert: He did not give up in the Santa Anita Derby, and I’m not ready to count him out either, especially with Espinoza aboard. He will likely be a nice price, too.
12. Enticed
Trainer: Kieran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado Odds: 30-1
Drape: I’m not. Pass.
Hoppert: Remember him? He won the Gotham and had people talking, then he finished behind Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial.
13. Bravazo
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Luis Contreras Odds: 50-1
Drape: Like a few in here, this colt is best running in front. He is going to have a lot of company.
Hoppert: Would love to see Lukas, 82, win another Derby, especially for a farm as historic as Calumet, but it won’t be this one.
14. Mendelssohn
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Odds: 5-1
Drape: The European invader by way of Dubai is the most interesting import in the history of the Derby. English and Irish punters will pound him at the betting windows. I will not.
Hoppert: He absolutely romped in the U.A.E. Derby, winning by 18 1/2 lengths and setting a track record, in his first start on dirt no less. He has a world-class trainer and jockey, but he just arrived Monday, and the overseas trip will surely take a toll.
15. Instilled Regard
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Odds: 50-1
Drape: It is hard to find anything to like about this one.
Hoppert: Another horse who is going the wrong way: His last victory was in January, and his speed figures have flattened.
16. Magnum Moon
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Luis Saez Odds: 6-1
Drape: Like Justify, he did not run at 2. If he beats me, he beats me.
Hoppert: Undefeated in four starts, he’s definitely dangerous, but I’m not crazy about him drifting wide in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby and, you know, the Apollo Curse.
17. Solomini
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Flavien Prat Odds: 30-1
Drape: Like Flameaway, a tough competitor with a bright future. Don’t see a blanket of roses in it, though.
Hoppert: He’s hit the board in all six of his races, but he drew the 17 hole, from which no horse has won, and he doesn’t seem fast enough to compete against this bunch.
18. Vino Rosso
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Odds: 12-1
Drape: He needed a weak field in the Wood Memorial to win as a 3-year-old.
Hoppert: He seems to be peaking at the right time, and I do put stock in last year’s Derby-winning jockey picking him over Audible. But that was also before he drew this post.
19. Noble Indy
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Florent Geroux Odds: 30-1
Drape: This colt has been unjustly overlooked. If the Frenchman can get a clean break, this duo might just wire the field.
Hoppert: The Louisiana Derby winner is the speediest of the Pletcher bunch, but with that post, he must have a clean break and be able to cut over quickly. That’s a tall task.
20. Combatant
Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Odds: 50-1
Drape: This colt has won once in eight starts. Not sure why he is here.
Hoppert: One horse has won from the 20 hole, and that was Big Brown in 2008. Combatant is no Big Brown.
