Can Harvard and Northeastern Pull Off NCAA Upsets? Probably Not
Both the Crimson and the Huskies are longshots on Thursday. But there are a few loopholes each could possibly slide through.
Now that we’ve passed the celebration stage of processing the inclusion of two local colleges – Harvard and Northeastern – in this year’s NCAA basketball tourney, it’s time for the “confronting reality’’ stage.
Both the Crimson and the Huskies will face national powerhouses in the opening round Thursday, with Northeastern set to take on ACC Tournament Champion Notre Dame and Harvard going up against North Carolina. It probably goes without saying, but both the Crimson and the Huskies will need plenty to go their way in addition to playing their best games of the season if they want to advance.
It won’t be impossible, though. The Tar Heels and the Irish each possess some flaws that can be exploited, particularly North Carolina, which went 24-11 during the season, at one point losing four of five and five of seven.
In the West region’s 4/13 matchup, Carolina will almost certainly have the advantage over Harvard in the paint. The Tar Heels are deep up front and were 12th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game, with 13.9. Big men Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks together average 25 points and 15 rebounds per game. Carolina’s 8.2 rebounding margin is seventh in the nation and in addition to Johnson and Meeks, they have three other players 6’8’’ or taller in their regular rotation.
Harvard’s biggest advantage is its three-point shooting, which clocks in at healthy 41.4 percent. If the Crimson are clicking from downtown, they’ll not only be scoring but they’ll at least somewhat neutralize Carolina’s advantage on the glass. Take a look at the box scores from all of Carolina’s losses this season and you’ll find that in six of them, its opponent shot better than 40 percent from deep.
This is Harvard’s fourth straight trip to the Dance. The previous two resulted in first round wins over New Mexico in 2013 and Cincinnati last year. Looking at the Crimson’s recent penchant for winning opening round matchups, it doesn’t feel out of the realm of possibility that they could put a real scare into the Tar Heels. If you’re looking to make a splashy, upset pick in your bracket, you could do worse than this game.
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As far as our other local entry goes, your best bet is to tip your hat to the Huskies for getting this far and quickly scribble down Notre Dame as the winner of the 3/14 game in the Midwest on your pool sheet. The Irish are vulnerable defensively (146th in the nation in points allowed per game and 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency as per the Pomeroy Ratings) and are terrible on the boards with 32.8 rebounds per game as a team, good for a seven-way tie for 245th in the nation.
The Huskies shoot the ball very well, coming in ninth in the nation in field goal percentage at a very tidy 48.6 percent, and also rank ninth in three-point shooting (38.8 percent). Scott Eatherton, a 6’8’’ forward and the Huskies’ best player, will be a legit weapon in this game thanks to his size and shooting ability.
But that’s where any advantages end for Northeastern. Notre Dame’s offense is a machine; the Irish are second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) and shoot it at 51 percent. They have four players who shoot over 40 percent from three-point land and despite their defensive shortcomings, they did hold Duke, another big-time offensive team, to just 64 points in the ACC tournament semis.
Maybe Notre Dame will clank 19 of 22 three-point attempts as was the case in a late-February, five-point loss to Syracuse. Maybe the Huskies will somehow manage to shoot 81 percent in the first half – a la Duke in a 90-60 win over the Irish back on Feb. 7 – and simply run Notre Dame out of the gym. Maybe star guard Jerian Grant (son of former NBA great Harvey Grant) will have an off night and not approach his 16.8 points per game average.
Or maybe the Huskies’ reward will be making it to the NCAA Tournament. If they win this game it will be a major, major upset.
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