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In Bill O’Brien’s first year as coach, can Boston College football get to six victories?
The Eagles kick off their schedule on Sept. 2 at Florida State.
What would a successful 2024 season look like for Boston College football? That depends on what the standard is.
If the Eagles are expected to be tough, hard-working good citizens — as new coach Bill O’Brien and athletic director Blake James have said — then, well, sure. Expect greatness.
If they intend to make another bowl game, they’re up against it.
Their ability to trade punches with the heavyweights depends greatly on playmaker Thomas Castellanos, who last season accounted for more total yards (3,361) than any other BC quarterback not named Matt Ryan or Doug Flutie.
At 5 feet 9 inches, 196 pounds, the junior is more Flutie than Ryan, but O’Brien has the credentials — you may have heard he used to coach Tom Brady — to make Castellanos more of a passing threat.
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There’s hope at The Heights. The Eagles might even put a scare into the top 25 teams on their schedule. But even if Castellanos is one of the ACC’s most dangerous players, they might struggle to get to six wins.
Where are these wins to be found? Let’s play win-or-loss at this know-little stage in late August:
Sept. 2 at Florida State
The Seminoles will hold their No. 10 ranking when they host the Eagles on Labor Day, thanks to a technicality — the next Associated Press poll won’t be released until Tuesday.
FSU’s playoff hopes took a massive hit last Saturday when it lost to Georgia Tech by a field goal in Dublin. The Seminoles surrendered 190 rushing yards to a clock-controlling Yellow Jackets offense, and Tech’s defense flustered quarterback DJ Uiagalelei.
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The Eagles lost to Florida State by just 2 points last year, despite setting a school record for penalties. They’ll need a clean game this time, plus another stellar performance from Castellanos, and a key defensive touchdown wouldn’t hurt.
Prediction: Loss (0-1, 0-1 ACC)
Sept. 7 vs. Duquesne
This is the only power-conference game for the Northeast Conference champs, who open with two FBS teams (Toledo) on the road. The Dukes return quarterback Darius Perrantes, who ranked first among both FBS and FCS quarterbacks in yards per completion (17.74). He also threw 18 picks.
Prediction: Win (1-1, 0-1 ACC)
Sept. 14 at Missouri
If the Eagles can test Missouri, which is ranked 11th and will be in a yawn of an opening month with Murray State, Buffalo, BC, and Vanderbilt, then good for them.
But they’ll need to defend against one of the most experienced QBs in the country: Brady Cook (3,317 yards and 21 touchdowns last season), plus his top wideout, Luther Burden III (1,212 receiving yards, including 725 after the catch). Mizzou also has one of the better defenses in the SEC.
The last (and only) meeting was a 41-34 overtime win that pushed the Eagles to 4-0 in 2021. If BC is unbeaten after this week, a dream season will be brewing.
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Prediction: Loss (1-2, 0-1 ACC)
Sept. 21 vs. Michigan State
New coach Jonathan Smith appears to have a quality defense, but he lacks the offensive oomph to lift Sparty out of the dregs of the Big 18 (er, 12).
The last meeting of these teams was the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl, where Ryan & Co. finished the first 11-win season at BC since 1940. The turnover-prone QB that day for Michigan State: Brian Hoyer, who later teamed with Brady to give O’Brien his “Teapot” moniker. Small world.
Prediction: Win (2-2, 0-1 ACC)
Sept. 28 vs. Western Kentucky
Here comes a Conference USA title contender, and another one of the country’s most exciting offenses, before the Eagles settle into ACC play.
The Hilltoppers were a surprise 8-5 last year after third-string quarterback Caden Veltkamp — who was on his way out of the program after being told he was likely to be moved to tight end — threw for five touchdowns and 383 yards against Old Dominion in a bowl game.
Whether it’s Veltkamp or someone else under center, WKU should be spicy in the passing game, as it was with Bailey Zappe running the show a few years ago. They likely don’t have enough elsewhere.
Prediction: Win (3-2, 0-1 ACC)
Oct. 5 at Virginia
Just what the doctor ordered last season, and maybe this time, too.
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After a miserable first half, BC rallied to beat the winless Cavaliers at home in Week 5. That started a five-game winning streak that floated the Eagles high enough to get them bowl-eligible; they went from 1-3 to 6-3.
Let’s say they get two-thirds of the way to six in Charlottesville.
Prediction: Win (4-2, 1-1 ACC)
Oct. 17 at Virginia Tech
From here, BC might be in a holding pattern.
The Hokies are on the rise, having won five of seven games to finish last year after losing 12 of coach Brent Pry’s first 17 games in Blacksburg. One of those late wins came Nov. 11 against BC, in which quarterback Kyron Drones was all but uncontainable and Castellanos looked shaky. BC’s five-game winning streak was over.
Virginia Tech also stomped Tulane, 41-20, in a bowl. Drones — and most of the key players from last year — are back and buzzing.
Prediction: Loss (4-3, 1-2 ACC)
Oct. 25 vs. Louisville
Ugly result at The Heights last year. The Cardinals, on their way to playing for the ACC championship, made it 28-0 before Castellanos got loose for a 39-yard touchdown. He would throw for three more, but it was 42-14 at halftime.
Some good news: Jack Plummer is no longer Louisville’s QB, replaced by Tyler Shough, the oft-injured transfer from Texas Tech. But Louisville’s defense should have all the answers.
Prediction: Loss (4-4, 1-3 ACC)
Nov. 9 vs. Syracuse
BC’s defense picked Orange quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson four times last season, scoring three times off those turnovers in a 17-10 win.
The same might not happen this time around. New Syracuse coach Fran Brown landed Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord (3,170 passing yards, 24 touchdowns). McCord and Texas A&M defensive lineman Fadil Diggs were two of 18 players the Orange added via the portal. Twelve of those came from power conferences, including seven from the SEC.
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The Orange finished with ESPN’s No. 42 recruiting class, and fans were fired up in April, showing up in record numbers (16,500) for the spring game. Under Dino Babers, this was the time of year where they started to fade. If McCord is up to the task, they might be a tough out.
Prediction: Loss (4-5, 1-4 ACC)
Nov. 16 at Southern Methodist
The Wasabi Fenway Bowl rematch should be a good one.
SMU leaves the AAC as conference champion (11-3, 9-0), and coach Rhett Lashlee & Co. are looking at a manageable debut season in a 17-team ACC. They have one top 25 team (FSU) on the docket, and the game is in Dallas. Four of their first five games are at home.
Preston Stone (3,197 passing yards, 28 touchdowns) returns as quarterback, and he has plenty of options. The Mustangs are different, thanks to the transfer portal, but look just as capable as last year. Let’s say O’Brien can solve them, setting up a nail-biter of a home stretch.
Prediction: Win (5-5, 2-4 ACC)
Nov. 23 vs. North Carolina
Drake Maye has shed his Carolina blue for Patriots colors, but the Heels will run over their share of teams this year.
Junior Omarion Hampton (1,504 yards) led all FBS players in yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. The offensive line is beefy, and if it can protect Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson — who put up a 2,815-yard, 27-touchdown season at LSU three years ago — UNC’s offense should be hard to handle.
Prediction: Loss (5-6, 2-5 ACC)
Nov. 30 vs. Pittsburgh
The Eagles will be seeking revenge for last year’s 24-16 loss in which their momentum from a strong midseason push continued to stall. The defense allowed big plays — a TD pass of 61 yards and a 66-yard rushing score — that put Pitt up for good.
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The line didn’t let Castellanos cook, leading to six sacks. He also threw two interceptions.
Here’s some good news: Pitt lost game-wrecking edge defender Dayon Hayes to Colorado, hampering what was a strong pass rush.
BC will make enough plays to get to a bowl — which it should see as the floor, not the ceiling, of the O’Brien Era.
Prediction: Win (6-6, 3-5 ACC)
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