Ranking the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL draft

Forty years ago, college football delivered one of its greatest gifts to the NFL. The famed 1983 draft produced the pinnacle of first-round quarterback classes, both in its volume and quality – but it might be challenged by what is to come next spring.

There probably aren’t any general managers, evaluators or agents who are about to proclaim the upcoming bounty on par with that ’83 harvest, in which six of the first 27 picks were used on quarterbacks (the Miami Dolphins nabbed Dan Marino at 27th overall). No one would guarantee that this group will produce any John Elways, Jim Kellys or Marinos, or even a Ken O’Brien, for that matter. However, as the college season winds down and many of the top quarterback prospects bow out of bowl games, it’s becoming clear that this crop will probably rival the class of 1983 in at least some capacities.

At this point, many in the industry would not be shocked if the 2024 class tied that ’83 group with six quarterbacks taken in the first round, beginning with the top two selections. And had Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders opted to leave school, we would be talking about seven in the first 32 picks – and perhaps six in the top 10. Only three other times have even five quarterbacks gone in the first round (2021, 2018 and 1999). And 2024 will probably far surpass the 1983 quarterback output in the top 10 picks; only Elway and Todd Blackledge went that early in 1983, while many invested in the process are convinced that at least four passers will be taken within the top 10 in 2024, matching the 2018 record. Some believe that quarterbacks will make up half of the top 10.

“I definitely think we’re looking at five in the first round, and maybe six, yeah,” said one NFL general manager whose team could enter those ranks and did not want to speak publicly about his opinions of the group. “There’s a lot of need, maybe more than in the last 10 years. It’s a bad [quarterback] free agent class . . . The portal and NIL give them a chance to play for different coaches and in different systems and keep making some money while they develop. They’re taking advantage of it.”

One veteran evaluator who has watched this class closely said: “People really like this group. It’s deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if six go [in the first round]. I really wouldn’t. There are three who for me belong at the top of the draft, top-five picks. I’ll bet you at least four go in the top 10, probably five. And somebody will grab one at the bottom of the round.”

One top agent, who is actively involved in this upcoming quarterback draft as well as the free agent market, said: “A lot of teams will address quarterback in the draft. Like New Orleans, Tampa, Atlanta – who haven’t been willing to use a first-round pick on one – I think they do here. [Quarterbacks] might go one, two, three. I kind of hate to think about it for some of my [NFL quarterback clients], but quarterbacks are going to dominate the first round. I agree.”

Here’s an early look at how they might come off the board based on conversations with people involved in the process.

Caleb Williams, Southern California

The Gonzaga High product is going within the top two picks and probably first overall, although he has a little work to do in meetings with NFL teams and with his media messaging. Based on talent, production and upside, everyone I spoke to believed he was the top prospect. But expect to hear plenty about him painting his fingernails, crying with his mom after a loss and skipping out on postgame media obligations late in what became a lost season for the Trojans. “He’s a really good kid,” said the agent, who has met with Williams but will not represent him in the NFL. “All of that BS, you can clean that up at the combine. You address it head-on. ‘I probably did too many commercials, but I wanted to help USC get back on the map and share it with my teammates . . . I cried because I care about winning so much, but I’m still growing and I’m just 21 years old and I’ll learn to channel that energy in a more positive way . . . I shouldn’t have skipped out on my news conference, and I understand that’s part of my job in the NFL, and it will never happen again.’ He’ll handle that. He’ll be the guy they all want.”

The evaluator said: “Chicago is taking him [first overall, with a pick received from Carolina], and a few more quarterbacks will go right after him. And then Chicago will pick between [Ohio State receiver] Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Penn State tackle [Olu Fashanu, another Gonzaga product] when they come up to pick again. That’s your top five.”

Drake Maye, North Carolina

Based on some of Williams’s perceived missteps and potential concerns about where Williams wants to play, there are some scouts and executives who think Maye could close the gap. Others disagree. “I hear some of that stuff, too, but I don’t know that I buy it,” the general manager said. “There’s going to be a lot of pressure to take Williams and he’s a pretty special prospect. You’re going to have to be fully committed to convincing your owner to take someone else. I like Maye a lot, too, but Williams is the top pick.” Outside of his elite production and immense upside, Maye comes from a family of athletes and got his high school training from longtime NFL quarterback and former Panthers quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. He should hit the ground running in the NFL.

Jayden Daniels, LSU

Oozing experience, with more than 50 college starts, and with top-notch athleticism, some see Daniels as a bit of a wild card. “He’s the second-best quarterback in this draft,” the evaluator said. “If he doesn’t go top three, somebody [messed] up. That kid can change your franchise. I love watching him play.”

Michael Penix Jr., Washington

One of three Heisman Trophy finalists on this list, along with Daniels and Bo Nix, Penix has a chance to further bolster his stock with a strong performance or two in the College Football Playoff. The two wins over Oregon have already propelled him, and he is yet another transfer product who has played a lot of college football. “We’ll have a first-round grade on him,” the general manager said.

Bo Nix, Oregon

It wasn’t that long ago that he was seen as something of a bust at Auburn, but Nix was reborn in the Pacific Northwest and has made the most of his extended eligibility. “I don’t know exactly what went down at Auburn and you’ve got do your homework there,” the evaluator said. “He’s older than you’d like [23, as is Penix; Daniels will turn 23 later this month]. But you watch this kid up close, you watch him throw the ball from the sidelines, he’s really impressive. No way he doesn’t go on the first day” of the draft.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

It struck many people as odd how little he has been asked to throw the football as the Wolverines soared up the national rankings and cruised to a Big Ten title. That was true even against lesser programs; in the middle stage of the season, McCarthy had 23 passing attempts against Maryland, 17 against Indiana and 20 against Minnesota. “But people really like him,” the evaluator said. “I hear what you’re saying, but they really like him. I think he goes [in the first round]. [Coach Jim] Harbaugh knows how to get him ready to play up here. He’s got one of the best lines in the country and one of the best running games in the country . . . So the coach wants to run the ball and play it safe. I don’t think that will keep him out of the first round.”

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