Red Sox reportedly expected to spend into luxury tax this offseason

The Red Sox were also a luxury tax team in 2025.

Craig Breslow and John Henry will likely have to spend into the luxury tax to help improve the Red Sox' roster this offseason. (Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff)

By Conor Roche

November 15, 2025

2 minutes to read

If the Red Sox want to improve off of their first postseason appearance in four years, they’re going to have to spend. It appears they’re preparing to do that.

The Red Sox are “fully expecting” to spend past the first luxury tax threshold this offseason as they believe they need to spend “more aggressively” in order to go deeper in the playoffs, MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported.

The first luxury tax threshold for the 2026 season is set at $244 million, and Boston currently has $219.59 million committed in payroll against the luxury tax, per Red Sox Payroll on X. So, the Red Sox would likely cross that first threshold if they re-signed third baseman Alex Bregman or added a major free agent.

However, that number also takes into account the arbitration projections (via MLB Trade Rumors) for arbitration-eligible players, such as first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and starting pitcher Tanner Houck. If the Red Sox were to non-tender Lowe, for instance, they would save $13.5 million in their projected payroll.

Of course, a possible outfielder Jarren Duran trade could also save money against the luxury tax, depending on what he’s traded for. The highly-rumored trade candidate has a $7.7 million salary for the 2026 season.

Still, the Red Sox seem likely to be over the $200 million in projected payroll commitments before signing any free agents unless they’re able to move outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida or pitcher Jordan Hicks. Yoshida was a rumored trade candidate last offseason and is set to make $18 million in 2026 as he has two years remaining on his deal.

Hicks, meanwhile, is owed $12 million for each of the next two seasons.

The Red Sox were a luxury tax team in 2025, marking the first time they ended the season above the first luxury tax threshold since 2022, according to The Boston Globe‘s Alex Speier. They had a projected payroll of $246.5 million, per Spotrac’s data, which was just over $5 million north of last season’s luxury tax line.

That payroll number for 2025, though, was almost certainly higher by a good bit before trading Rafael Devers to the Giants. Devers had a $29.5 million salary last season, so the Red Sox might have been closer to spending to the second luxury tax threshold than we realized prior to the trade.

If the Red Sox are willing to spend toward the second luxury tax threshold this offseason, they have roughly $45 million in cap space to do that, based on their projected salary number for next season.

In a scenario where Boston either re-signs Bregman and signs a major free agent or signs multiple major free agents, it might end up getting close to the second luxury tax threshold. The Athletic projects that 17 of the top 20 free agents on its free-agent big board will receive deals worth at least $20 million per year this offseason.