7 things to know about a pivotal Red Sox-Yankees series
Whoever wins the series will have the inside track to getting the top wild-card spot in the American League and could still win the division.
Arguably the most important Red Sox-Yankees series in at least a few years will begin at Fenway Park on Friday.
The two rivals are neck-and-neck in the American League wild card standings entering the three-game set. New York holds a half-game advantage over Boston for the top wild-card spot. Both teams are also still very much in the mix for the division title, but they also need to build some cushion in order to fend off other challengers for the wild-card spot.
So, while this isn’t a playoff series, there’s plenty at stake between the two teams this weekend. Here are seven things to know about the upcoming series.
The Red Sox have had the Yankees’ number this season.
The Yankees won the first meeting between the two teams this season — and then they didn’t beat the Red Sox again until their ninth game of the season. Boston leads the season series, 8-2. It won five of six over New York over two series in June, including a three-game sweep at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox continued their domination of the Yankees this season by taking three of four from their rival in The Bronx in August. In that series, Boston won the first three games, with its last victory being a 12-1 win as New York arguably hit the low point of its season.
Boston will have its three best starting pitchers on the mound over the weekend.
After juggling around the rotation a bit in their series against the Athletics, the Red Sox will have Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Garrett Crochet on the bump for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday’s games, respectively.
While Giolito has had a resurgence this season (10-3, 3.38 ERA), the righty wasn’t good in his lone start against the Yankees so far this season. He gave up three earned runs on five hits, three walks, and four strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings, throwing 97 pitches in the August outing.
Bello and Crochet, on the other hand, have been dynamite against the Yankees, particularly the former. Bello hasn’t allowed a run over two outings against New York this year, pitching 14 scoreless innings.
Crochet arguably had his best outing against the Yankees this season. He nearly had his first complete game shutout in one of his starts against them in June, but Aaron Judge hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning. Crochet has a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 innings over three starts against the Yankees this season.
The Yankees will also have their ace on the mound this weekend.
Just like the Red Sox, the Yankees will also have their best starting pitcher on the bump over the weekend. However, they won’t have their entire top of the rotation pitching in the three-game set.
All-Star Max Fried will go against Bello on Saturday. The lefty has been pretty effective against Boston this season, giving up just two runs in 13 innings pitched over two starts.
As for the Yankees’ other two starters, Luis Gil and Will Warren will pitch Friday and Sunday, respectively. Gil, who won AL Rookie of the Year in 2024, didn’t make his season debut unti August due to injury. He had a 1.54 ERA over two starts against the Red Sox last season and gave up two runs (one earned) over five innings in his lone start against Boston this season.
Warren has given up at least four runs in his two starts against the Red Sox this year, including a five-run outing in four innings in August.
Who has stepped out for the Red Sox since Roman Anthony went down?
The Red Sox’ lineup took a major hit at the start of September when their rookie phenom suffered an oblique injury that will likely keep him out through the end of the regular season, if not longer.
Boston’s lineup has had some struggles since Anthony went down, going on a four-game home run drought before Trevor Story snapped it on Monday. In fact, the shortstop has largely carried the lineup with Anthony out, hitting .308 with a .896 OPS since Anthony went down. Carlos Narvaez has also found a groove again after some mid-summer struggles, hitting .381 so far this month.
But beyond Story and a couple of platoon players (Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder), no one else has really stepped up at the top of the Red Sox’ lineup. Alex Bregman has hit just .207 since Anthony’s injury and he hasn’t hit a home run since Aug. 12. Jarren Duran has yet to hit a home run in September and is hitting just .229 through the first 11 days of the month. Nathaniel Lowe has hit just .185 in September.
The Yankees’ success is largely dependent on the long ball.
No team in the majors has hit more homers than the Yankees this season, hitting 249 so far this year. On a per-game basis, that comes out to 1.7. Against the Red Sox this season, the Yankees have hit 14 homers over 10 games (1.4 per game). As they’re on pace to hit over 270 homers this season, the Yankees are on track to finish in the top five for the most homers hit by a team in a single season.
While those numbers are impressive, the Yankees have really needed those home runs to succeed this season. They’re 69-44 in the 113 games they’ve hit a home run this season, while they’re only 12-21 in the 33 games they haven’t hit a home run.
New York also hasn’t hit well at the plate since the start of August, logging a .239 batting average in that span. It’s ranked 21st in batting average in each of the last two months.
Are the Red Sox expecting to welcome anyone back from injury? What other roster moves might be made?
The Red Sox made one roster move ahead of Friday’s game, placing left-handed reliever Brennan Bernardino on the 15-day injured list (left lat strain) and calling up lefty Chris Murphy to replace him.
But beyond anything unforeseen, that might be the only tweak made to the roster for the weekend. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu isn’t expected to return from his calf injury until the Red Sox’ upcoming series against the Athletics, Alex Cora told reporters earlier this week. Romy Gonzalez should be back in the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game due to a knee issue.
What’s at stake with this series?
Obviously, the winner of this series will have the inside track to getting the top wild card spot in the American League and could be situated to overtake the Blue Jays for first place in the division.
Meanwhile, the loser of the series could be in danger entering the final couple of weeks of the regular season, especially if they get swept. The Rangers’ recent hot stretch of play has only put them two games behind the Astros for the final wild card spot and four games behind the Red Sox. If the Rangers sweep the struggling Mets and the Red Sox get swept, Boston would only hold a one-game advantage for the final wild-card spot.
Beyond the standings, winning this series might be more imperative for the Red Sox than it is for the Yankees. After this weekend, the Red Sox have the Blue Jays and Tigers, along with the Rays and Athletics, on their schedule. The Yankees close out the year facing three below .500 squads, including the two worst teams in the American League (White Sox, Twins).
So, winning or losing this series won’t seal the Red Sox’ playoff chances, but it will go a long way in determining them.
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